Sunday, August 16, 2020

The Prophet of Doom cackles at your naive hopes

Hate to say I told ya so...
Overall, 50% of registered voters back the Biden-Harris ticket, while 46% say they support Trump and Pence, right at the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Among the 72% of voters who say they are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this fall, Biden's advantage over Trump widens to 53% to 46%. It is narrower, however, among those voters who live in the states that will have the most impact on the electoral college this fall.
Across 15 battleground states, the survey finds Biden has the backing of 49% of registered voters, while Trump lands at 48%.
Other polls indicate that the 2020 race is tighter than 2016 was in the battleground states -- the only states that matter. This NBC/WSJ poll saves the important news for a middle paragraph...
Still, Trump maintains his lead over Biden on the economy — which the poll finds is voters’ top issue heading into the election — and the president’s overall numbers have improved from last month, although the movement is within the survey’s margin of error.
If this were DU, everyone would now be shouting "OUTLIER!" "Bad polling methodology!" "GOTV! GOTV!" And then I would be banished again, because I continually insist on committing the sin of pessimism.

Here is reality: People are turning against the BLM protestors. Identity politics is not popular. White people are sick of being called "racist" just because they were born white. Abolishing the police is not popular -- not even with most black people.

Prepare for a shock: Arson and riots and violence don't sit well with most Americans. Peaceful protests, if they last long enough, will always be commandeered by violent agents provocateurs. Always. If you didn't see that one coming, you're an idiot who never read a history book.

Identity obsessives have allowed race to overpower all other issues -- which was precisely the outcome the far right wanted. The forced resignation of Seattle's black police chief made the left look insane.

Kamala Harris, they say, is "sort of" popular -- but if she is, why didn't Biden's numbers go up?

Feminism is not popular. "Transgender Stalinism" is not popular. (Didja know that many transgendered people actually hated the way J.K. Rowling was treated?) The left's insistence on muzzling free speech on campus and in entertainment is not popular.

Fox News is the most popular channel on cable television. (Nobody is forcing your fellow citizens to watch that crap; they genuinely love it.) Democrats have stupidly allowed Trump's deceptive messaging on Russiagate to prevail. (Would it kill Biden or Harris to say "Trump's lying about the Mueller report"?) Wimpy Pelosi allowed Team Trump to ignore subpoenas. Investigations into Ivanka and Kushner and Sater were promised, but never arrived. Pelosi should have used her "Inherent Contempt" powers ages ago. She was weak. American voters hate weakness.

The "Clinton/Epstein" smear has become an article of faith, even among some progressives. (I am the only one defending Bill Clinton on this one, even though the facts are on my side.) QAnon has caught the popular imagination because rational people refused to mount a counter-argument until too late. Turns out you can't fight a Big Lie by imitating the ostrich.

Remember: Trump just has to get close to the 50 percent mark in key states. Rigged tabulating machines will carry him the rest of the way.

Get out of your prog bubble and get used to the idea now: JOE BIDEN IS GOING TO LOSE. Hell, Trump has essentially tied this thing up already, in the states that matter -- and he has yet to unleash the real smears.

Joe's loss is gonna hurt you like you've never been hurt before. Prepare for the blow now. It'll sting less.

I'll repeat an earlier prediction: When Biden loses, progressives will place all blame with a mythical band of "elites" who supposedly forced Biden upon us. No-one will blame African American voters, who really did choose Biden.

And I'll be very amused to hear you call me a racist, since I would have preferred Booker to Biden.

Keep watching Bill Maher. He's the only truth-teller left on the left. (Although even Maher fell for the Clinton smear. "Monica, therefore pedophilia." Jesus. As if that's logical.)


Ivory Bill Woodpecker said...

I take you seriously on the mail sabotage danger, although I remain skeptical of the Big Smear; I would be less skeptical if the Tara Reade fiasco had been more effective.

But once again, you did not mention the elephant in the room, and I don't mean the Treason Party's mascot.

When the forced-to-reopen schools experience a spike in infections, serious damage, and deaths, and the little germ factories bring the virus home to their grandparents, the voters will know which president and which party forced the deaths of their parents and their kids.

What will become of the popularity of Benedict Donald and the Treason Party then?

I saw in 1992 and 2008 that when my fellow white voters have more important things to worry about than the Stupid Bullshit Culture Wars, the GOP suffers.

Ivory Bill Woodpecker said...

I don't think you're racist, Mr. C.

I merely think you overestimate this year's importance of the Stupid Bullshit Culture Wars. In 2016, the economy was humming along fairly well, and there was no plague (I'm using "plague" in the generic sense).

Also, Benedict Donald had no record to burden him in 2016. He does now.

I think you underestimate how sick people are of him, how many of us want that SOB gone.

I agree with you that we should avoid complacency, though, as does the Lincoln Project.

Alessandro Machi said...

Kamala "Rosa Parks" Harris was bused less than 3 miles. Harris hijacked the entire controvers surround busing, which was the longer distances many students were forced to travel, anywhere from 30 minutes to 90 minutes in each direction.

Without the busing jab that Harris gave Biden in the first debate, her nubmers never would have risen nor would she have had her brief moment in the spotlight. Harris is riding the coat tails of a 10 minute ride to school.

Alessandro Machi said...

the other elephant in the room is parents who can't go to work because their kids are home. The constant delusion and politicization of the Coronavirus by the mainstream media and the Democrat party makes me cringe.

Ivory Bill Woodpecker said...

"Democratic" is the adjective; "Democrat" is the noun.

Hmmm...use of that noun where one should use the adjective instead has become a tribal marker of the Treason Party (fka GOP); unless Mr. Machi is a member of that tribe, he might want to be more careful about his usage.

I guess Mr. Machi takes the "Grin And Bear It" approach to pandemic management--as does our host?

Ivory Bill Woodpecker said...

Our host is not pro-Trump, but apparently the cultural Left really, really, really gets under his skin, whereas it does not bother me, even though I'm just as cis-het, white, and male as our host. I wonder what the difference(s) is/are?

Ivory Bill Woodpecker said...

I did not compose the following; I am quoting a Mr. Jeff Ryan, from over on No More Mister Nice Blog. Everything below the asterisks is Ryan's.


Here's the thing (and my chance to get called out as a clueless old man): There have always been wackos and bizarre beliefs, conspiracy claims and paranoia. But in the pre-internet days, you either had to seek the shit out, or wait for a mischievous editor of the "Letters" section of your local paper to toss a lunatic screed into the mix. But it would only be one letter out of half a dozen, and then only on rare occasions.

When the internet began to really catch on, things started to get weird and nasty. Otherwise normal people posted enraged hostile shit on the message boards. Worse, any random idiot could now set up a site about space alien Jews and interplanetary conspiracies and hey! They found kindred souls, and not just a few of them.

It's like handing nukes to schoolkids. No filters, no standards, just insane nonstop hatred and bizarre theories and impossible claims that are swallowed by people who have never learned critical thinking and actually believe the nonsense. There is no one to referee the noise, so everything gets a spotlight.

Thirty to forty years ago, so-called "incels" would have been told to STFU and grow up. Today they're an aggrieved constituency who kill people.