Syria, Hillary's (fake) sex tape, Ryan -- and more

Syria. My heretical views on Syria are one reason why this blog no longer has the readership it once had. It's nice to know that I'm not alone in suspecting that Assad did not order the recent chemical attacks. In the video embedded above, former British ambassador to Syria Peter Ford explains his own reasons for believing that something else is going on.

Trump's tweeted response is terrifying:

Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!

Scary stuff. But I'm not as worried as others are.

In the preceding post, I argued that we are about to see a piece of theater, in which Trump talks and acts very tough toward Putin. Doing so will worry many people but will also do much to erase the Trump/Putin collusion narrative.

In reality -- and it's a reality that no-one is talking about right now, even though the facts are easily verifiable -- Russia has formed a new partnership with Saudi Arabia. In other words, Russia now favors the Saudi side of the Saudi/Iran competition. Since Assad is in a deep partnership with Iran, Russia suddenly has no reason to want to see Assad hold onto power.

My prediction: Trump will stage a massive public "break" with Putin. There will be booms and bangs and deaths. There will be a demand: "Assad must go!" After a period of nuclear fear and trepidation, Putin will back down and agree to Assad's removal. Trump will then be hailed as the heroic tough guy who put Putin in his place. The collusion narrative will fade, no matter what kind of evidence Mueller finds. The Republicans will stand a much better chance of controlling both the House and Senate after the November elections.

I believe that Putin and Trump have already agreed to play out this scenario. The story will seem breathtaking as it plays out, but it's all been planned in advance. What we are seeing now -- and what we are about to see -- is pure theater. Why else would Trump have issued such a tweet? Trump's sudden display of newfound confidence and swagger indicates the presence of an ace up his sleeve, and I believe that the scenario outlined here is that ace.

If and when nukes start a-flyin', I will admit that my prognostication was incorrect. Somewhere in a Baltimore suburb, a glowing green skeleton will offer you his sincerest apologies.

Another Trump tweet shows us what Dave's Insanity Sauce would be like if it had no Dave and no sauce:

Much of the bad blood with Russia is caused by the Fake & Corrupt Russia Investigation, headed up by the all Democrat loyalists, or people that worked for Obama. Mueller is most conflicted of all (except Rosenstein who signed FISA & Comey letter). No Collusion, so they go crazy!

So...what's happening in Syria is all Mueller's fault? Vocabulary note: "Conflicted" is Trumpspeak for "not loyal to ME."

It's always cute when Donnie accuses his enemies of being crazy. Projection.

They're still going after Hillary! The Russians faked up a sex tape which purportedly shows Hillary Clinton with a black man. The video was published to PornHub, where it soon garnered a quarter-million views. One can only imagine the comments.

A whistleblower from the IRA had previously told Russia's TV Rain that the troll farm had created a fake porn video of Clinton. The former employee, Alan Baskaev, said the troll farm sought to create racial discord by publishing such material.

On several previous occasions, this humble blog has mentioned a precedent: In the 1980s, one of the East Bloc services faked up a Ronald Reagan/Vicki Morgan sex film, using lookalikes. Presumably, the original intent was to embarrass Reagan. For whatever reason, the production was never used for that purpose.

American intelligence got hold of the thing and used it in a complicated scam perpetrated on publisher Larry Flynt, who (as few now recall) had initiated a political magazine called The Rebel. A wild character named Gordon Novel -- whose name pops up in all sorts of scandals, from the JFK assassination to Watergate to Waco -- used the fake Reagan/Morgan tape to worm his way into Flynt's good graces. In short order, Novel became Flynt's right-hand man -- and as a matter of pure coincidence, Flynt suddenly began to act in an ultra-bizarre fashion. (Some of you may recall the time he wore diapers into court.)

Flynt has frequently shown the bogus Reagan/Morgan tape to guests -- I've spoken to people who have seen it -- but he has never allowed it to appear on the net. I don't think that any other copies circulate, even on the dark web. Doesn't matter. The thing's a fake.

As is the Hillary video. It amazes me that the Russians still consider her to be worth the effort.

Update: In the interest of science, I checked out Pornhub. The Hillary video described above is not there. However, I did see a 3D animation of Hillary giving a lap dance to the Grim Reaper.

Paul Ryan won't run for re-election. I don't know what to say except...HOORAY! YIPPEE! HOSANNA! BRAVO! The Atlas of democracy has shrugged off a tic.

Let the speculation begin. What caused him to make this decision?

Ryan's great ambition has always been to remake the economy according to the vision of Ayn Rand. In furtherance of that goal, he has demonstrated a willingness to gulp down every fecal missile emitted by Donald Trump's brobdingnagian butt. Did he tire of these meals?

Or is Ryan the victim of kompromat? That theory -- and I'm hardly the first to suggest it -- would explain why a man who clearly can't stand Donald Trump would display such a disgusting degree of obsequiousness. If the "kompromat" scenario is correct, then the only way for Ryan to stop playing toady is to hop out of the toad pool.

This hop makes his seat much more likely to be won by a Dem. Unfortunately, a "win" for Trump in Syria will keep the seat red.

I've read that Ryan actually used the hoary "spend time with my family" excuse. This formulation is so tired, so obvious, and so hokey that the "kompromat" theory becomes almost inescapable.

This just in: Republican congressman Dennis Ross of Florida is also retiring. He too wants to spend more time with his family. Seriously. I'm not kidding.

Ross says he wants to spend time at home, with two sons getting married within the year. Says he planned to do 10 years but after 8 decided, "This is a good time."

2018 is looking to be the Year of the Family.

The raid. In the preceding post, I said that the Michael Cohen raid was conducted by the United States Attorney for Southern District of New York, Geoffrey Berman, a Giuliani partner and Trump appointee. We now know that Berman recused himself, which means that the decision to go in was made by someone lower in the hierarchy. Still, if Berman had hopes of holding onto that job, he never would have recused himself. We all know what Trump thinks of people who chose honor over loyalty.

So...bravo, Mr. Berman!

Cohen has apparently told associates that he fears being the "fall guy" in the Trump/Russia scandal.

Stressing his loyalty, Cohen has steadfastly denied wrongdoing and defended Trump. But he has confided in associates in recent weeks that he is fearful of being a fall guy, according to a person familiar with his thinking but not authorized to speak publicly about private discussions.

Obviously, one doesn't worry about being pegged as a fall guy unless one is party to an actual crime. Just as obviously, Cohen must fear that the crime will soon be exposed.

Poor Mike! He doesn't really look like Elisha Cook Jr., does he?

(Sudden thought: In The Maltese Falcon, what would have stopped Cook's character from ratting out Gutman?)

Added note: Devin Nunes wants to impeach FBI Director Christopher Wray and Rod Rosenstein.

You know, I really should write that piece about Nunes that I've been threatening to write for months now...