Thursday, August 13, 2009

Divide and conquer: Is this the plan?

Dakinkat's article on French and German recovery is a must-read:
Germany is a manufacturer and exporter. Yes, that’s right. Germany has trade unions, good vacation packages, excellent schools, universal health care, lots of solar power and tough environmental regulations and they still have a manufacturing economy and they export. Their form of government is basically a type of democratic socialism. All the things we are taught to view with suspicion. Still, Germany manages to manufacture things and export to China the country to whom the U.S. has practically sold their collective soul so we can massively huge import junk on a rapidly decreasing credit line.
Since we do not have a robust export sector, we must rely on consumer spending for much of our stimulus. This will have mixed results because much of our consumer spending is import-based which means it stimulates economies elsewhere.
Can we continue to live in denial that some of the industrial plans, export/import management strategies, and policy priorities of our European cousins may actually have viability?
It's almost as though America's leadership reviewed the world economic situation and said: "Let's determine what works -- what really, really works -- and then not do that."

I felt the tin foil dig into my scalp as DK's analysis reminded me of a bizarre Wall Street Journal article advocating the division of the United States:
Picture an America that is run not, as now, by a top-heavy Washington autocracy but, in freewheeling style, by an assemblage of largely autonomous regional republics reflecting the eclectic economic and cultural character of the society.

There might be an austere Republic of New England, with a natural strength in higher education and technology; a Caribbean-flavored city-state Republic of Greater Miami, with an anchor in the Latin American economy; and maybe even a Republic of Las Vegas with unfettered license to pursue its ambitions as a global gambling, entertainment and conventioneer destination. California? America’s broke, ill-governed and way-too-big nation-like state might be saved, truly saved, not by an emergency federal bailout, but by a merciful carve-up into a trio of republics that would rely on their own ingenuity in making their connections to the wider world.
Devolved America is a vision faithful both to certain postindustrial realities as well as to the pluralistic heart of the American political tradition—a tradition that has been betrayed by the creeping centralization of power in Washington over the decades but may yet reassert itself as an animating spirit for the future.
The seductive malevolence of this proposition becomes most apparent when you re-read that last paragraph in the light of Germany's rebound, as described above.

Germany faces the same "postindustrial realities" that we do, yet the Germans enjoy a higher quality of life and a greater resilience in the face of recession. Power is far more centralized in Germany than is the case here -- and yet that country prospers, despite the WSJ's "big gummint is always bad" ideology. As for that "tradition of pluralism" bit: Keep in mind that Germany has remained disunified (religiously and politically) for most of its history. In 1870, Napoleon III presumed that Bavaria would come in on his side if Prussia went to war with France.

What we need in California is more concentrated state government power, not less. We need a rollback of the initiative process. We need to make tax policy subject to a simple majority vote.

Similarly, if the United States federal government were run more like the centralized governments of Germany and France, we would be as happy and healthy as they are. In this country, health care reform has become an intractable problem due to the obstructionist tactics of a handful of politicians from tiny states. The Senate is an inherently anti-democratic institution because it grants disproportional power to our Jayzuss-addled rural areas. If we reformed the Constitution, if we did away with the Senate, something like single-payer would suddenly become much more do-able.

The electoral college, like the Senate, unfairly favors the small states -- and it gave us George Bush in 2000.

What would happen if the Washington-haters had their way? What if the United States were no longer united? Obviously, a divided Republic would result in a collection of weaklings. In the international arena, each statelet would function like a three-man football team facing the Dallas Cowboys. The People's Republic of Southern California might have more political heft than is currently exercised by, say, Bolivia -- but not much more.

And perhaps...

(Is your tin foil cap on nice and tight? I take a 7 and 3/4...)

...perhaps that is the plan.

Think about it, and think hard. Do you want to live in a world in which the United States, the USSR and China are all dissolved into constituent parts -- while Germany is united, and Europe is united under Germany?

That's where we are heading. Our incompetent leaders are leading us toward dissolution, the same way an incompetent CEO leads the firm toward Chapter 11. The international financiers, the ideologues, the screeching partisans, the racial isolationists (e.g., Farrakhan), the religious fundamentalists and the regional xenophobes (such as the neo-Confederates and the Texas secessionists) are all pointing down the road to ruin.

Sure, the secessionists are, at present, a small group of wackos. In a time of financial disaster, the wackos have their chance.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1206022/Mervyn-King-says-Its-worse-thought-Feeble-economic-recovery-doom-firms.html

Oh yeah, like that worked well for Britain.

syborg said...

Whether it is intentional or not, it seems like a possible outcome. The divide between red and blue states seems almost unbridgeable. And maybe it is politics trying to cater to the most vocal constituents, but the vitriol and complete of ability to have any meaningful discourse between groups of differing opinions is a harbinger of worse to come.
From Prop 8, to health care, to Cuba, to tea baggers, there seems to be no ability to find any common ground. And the cycles only seem to escalate and the sides grow further apart. It does not seem like a happy ending is possible, only 2 (or more) pissed off groups loathing each other.

Perry Logan said...

I'm for airlifting the cool people out of Utah and herding the wingers there. The right can have their own country, where they can practise their crackpot policies to their hearts' content.

They would be dead within weeks.

Joseph Cannon said...

Perry, I hear ya. There have been times in the past when I advocated fighting a new civil war to GET RID of the south.

But really, the solution is to revamp the Constitution to make sure that the red states do not continue to have an unfair measure of power, as they now do.

Dakinikat said...

Hey, if you wanna get rid of the south, please air lift ME out of New Orleans first.

You'd be surprised how similar the gulf coast parts of the southern states are to each other as compared to the northern part of their states. Everything below the I-10 is an entirely different country. Believe me or I wouldn't be here! Plus Atlanta isn't old South at all any more either!

PaxAmericana said...

Is it true that Germany is more centralized than the US? I thought they had a policy of decentralization coming out of their unfortunate experience.

Also, I'm not so sure about how divided the country is. People are definitely angry, and no political system is very good at distributing pain, which is what the future of the US holds. The difference I see is that polite disagreement has turned into anger.

MrMike said...

Two things I remember for the 2006 and 2008 elections.
The Blue States formed an inverted U on both coasts and across the border with Canada. The Red States were in the center and along the South.
Remember when some wag named the red part of that election map Jesus Land?
The other thing was federal tax money flowed out of the Blue States and into the Red States. California had it pretty bad as Washington was draining its wealth to hand over to conservative Red Staters.
Going back to that WSJ article, Cali would be better off without the U S than the U S would be sans Cali.

Joseph Cannon said...

Pax: In this case, when I spoke of centralization I was not necessarily talking about socialism.

Mike, you're right about California. We've been carrying the red states economically for decades. Now that we need help from the federal government, we are being spurned.

Vincent said...

Your comment is a bit flawed, Joseph. The fallacy is that Germany is a desirable model for everyone. If every country specialized in exporting, who would import ? Besides, what Germany is specialized in is heavy machinery. Germany makes money when China and the USA buy them their stuff to build more factories to produce more useless junk.

Another irony is that, in Germany, all the experts have been lamenting for years that Germany is too much export-based and that the people are... get this... Not indebted enough ! See, they didn't buy enough junk.. Whereas, in France, Sarkozy lauded the credit frenzy which enabled so many Americans and Brits to live in their McMansions. Granted, those are the views of our local elite. For them, we are not American enough.

Lastly, but i'm nitpicking, there's a vast difference between Germany and France's political cultures. France is very centralized, but regionalists are more and more powerful. Germany is quite decentralized, the chancellor has for example less power than the POTUS.

The point of all this ? Don't really know. But Europe is not an island of prosperity and independent thought. We are submitted to the same neoliberal policies, even if we are still better off than the vast majority of the Americans. Things are much more interconnected than we'd like to admit...

Anonymous said...

"Higher public expenditures and a still stronger breakdown of imports than of exports are responsible for this small plus of the gdp in comparison to the previous quarter. Because the difference of exports minus imports flows into the gdp it can lead to the strange situation, where less domestic demand can lead to a higher gdp, if in response the exports fall less strongly."
(second paragraph below the graph, rough translation by me)
http://wirtschaftquerschuss.blogspot.com/2009/08/deutsches-bip-rezession-beendet.html

"Their form of government is basically a type of democratic socialism." Haha.. the whole quoted paragraph is ridiculous.

"Let's determine what works -- what really, really works -- and then not do that."
Bailing out banks?
Bundestag & Bundesrat passed a $675bn bailout for the financial institutions..
Bailing out corporation too big to fail (equaling an influential number of votes to be garnered) by means the like of (e.g.) scrappage premium?
Started January, 14th and will continue at least until the end of the year. (Until after the election. Convenient, isn't it?)

"Power is far more centralized in Germany"
I doubt that assumption. You might want to look into the mess which was/is the "VW law" as an example, essentially establishing Lower Saxonys "golden share" in VW.
http://www.germanlawjournal.de/print.php?id=870

"Do you want to live in a world in which the United States, the USSR and China are all dissolved into constituent parts -- and Europe is united?"
The USSR dissolved some years ago, quite successfully (and peacefully). Russia though remains a player in power politics, (e.g. concerning energy issues, especially in Europe). And concerning the unification of Europe (disempowering people Lisbon treaty style) - it was opposed by the Irish in a referendum (and by the French & Dutch earlier). No other referenda were called. If Europe were united, it quite possibly would be in a way comparable to the US, against the will of the people.

@Vincent
"all the experts have been lamenting for years that Germany is too much export-based and that the people are not indebted enough"
I don't remember them being so straightforward.. ^^
"But Europe is not an island of prosperity and independent thought." Word!