The collapse of Mexico is a real possibility and not one American leader (including my favorite, SOS Clinton) seems remotely concerned with it. Northern Mexico is a few steps this side of civil war. A breakdown of Mexico would unleash a "humanitarian disaster" to use the hackneyed phrase. And not on our doorstep - in our living rooms. Why is next to no one discussing this?The Mexican war is between the four main drug cartels, especially the Gulf and Sinaloa cartels, and the Felipe Calderón government, which almost certainly achieved office through ballot fraud. I find it hard to root for Calderon, but what choice is there?
If the current bloodshed really does result in a collapse of social order in Mexico, what should the United States do? Obviously, many refugees will stream over the border. Just as obviously, we cannot easily accommodate such an influx, given the sorry state of our own economy. I believe that liberals will have to reconcile themselves to the idea of beefed-up border patrols. No matter what we do, the results will be tragic.
The current violence may prompt you to check out this 2007 story by Daniel Hopsicker: Was U.S. in Business with Mexico's Sinaloa Cartel?
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Has U.S. drug use gone up significantly over the past few years? Or are more drug providers competing more violently for access to the U.S. market than they used to? It seems to me that modern technology has helped criminal mobs the same way that it's helped terrorist organizations: it takes fewer people to cause greater damage than it used to.
In the 90s, Israel had about 5 million residents (including 1 million Arab Israelis). An influx of 1 million Russian Jews didn't cause much of an upheaval. (it wasn't trivial either.)
The US can absorb millions of Mexican refugees; all you need is a change of attitude.
Koshem, I'd say that those Russians -- many of whom were "Jews" only if you put quotation marks around the word -- caused a whole LOT of problems.
We could absorb refugees, but if the number is large enough that might pose a significant risk from hate groups who could use that to expand and gain the sympathy of more moderate people. Americans are gullible and quick to frighten after all.
I think the right thing to do would be to accept them, while keeping a very close eye on the kind of SW border vigilante groups that have come into existence over the paranoid fear of brown people invading our country.
However, if the past deference to disaster capitalism is as strong as ever then chances are refugees would be accepted but also detained for a time by private companies at massive expense to the government. Their care would be subcontracted several times over, and conditions would be peachy for human right violations of all sorts.
Mass operation against Mexican cartels, announced Feb. 25 by U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder and the Acting Administrator of the DEA, Michele Leonhart.
Raids in 120 U.S. communities in 26 states in "Operation Xcellerator," arrest of 755 individuals, seizure of $59 million in U.S. currency, 12,000 kg of cocaine, 16,000 lbs of marijuana, 1,200 lbs of methamphetamine, 8 kg of heroin, 1.3 million Ecstasy pills, $6.5 million in other assets… 149 vehicles, 3 aircraft, 3 maritime vessels, and a sophisticated meth lab, with presses that could make over a quarter-million estacy pills a day.
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano told the House Committee on Homeland Security that working with Mexico to stop the drug cartels is "one of the top priority items on my desk." She said her Department, the Attny General and the Nat'l Security Adviser are coordinating their efforts to support Mexico in defeating the cartels.
Mexican Attny General Medina Mora said after meetings with Holder, Napolitano and others in Washington: "I have found an enormous sensibility in the Obama administration regarding the seriousness of the problems that the two countries face, and we know that we are facing a joint problem that requires shared actions and responsibilities."
There are some ‘good guys’ at high levels in the U.S. government—there are factions battling at high levels.
As to, “If the current bloodshed really does result in a collapse of social order in Mexico, what should the United States do?”… Answer to me is announce and launch major infrastructure projects immediately … we could have millions from both countries on the federal-credit payroll (international long-term treaty) within two months. The blueprints for these cross-border projects are already drawn, essentially. Use the Harry Hopkins--FDR model.
One big thing that makes such a plan difficult to put into operation is the context of the very dead-but on life support still financial-monetary system… the floating exchange rates (vs. fixed) since ‘68/’71 makes arranging such long-term cooperation between nations almost impossible to put on paper.
That problem is going to take U.S. led co-op between U.S.—China—Russia—India to get back on track. Note that SoS Clinton made first Int’l trip to Asia, not U.K. as has been the tradition. Note how the term "development" re-occurs in Clinton's talk of broad policy.
Accepting a huge influx from south of the border may be the "right" thing to do. It simply is not going to happen. Not in this economic climate. The public backlash in the U.S. would be severe and almost certainly violent.
Part of the problem in Mexico is that many Mexicans who have been working in the US have had to leave and return to their homeland. There is a great flux of Mexicans returning to Mexico with little to come home to. I know that some regions of Mexico have discussed how to deal with the crisis and some work aid programs, but I doubt they have much to work with.
So to people who say we could absorb them, I think you have lost sight of those we had absorbed having to leave. The only way we could absorb them at this current economic state is through a welfare state-and I doubt that could happen now.
And I don't expect much success in the "war on drugs" with Napolitano leading DHS. It's not like Arizona wasn't one of the gateways for smuggling. Besides there are many skeletons in her closet too. Quite shocking that Congress didn't even question her appointment, but that just tells you how screwed the whole system is- and the DHS has been the root of much of the corruption.
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