Should we take this man seriously?

(Thanks to dakinkat at the Confluence for bringing this to our attention.)

The ultra-dour predictions of Gerald Celente are of some personal importance to me, especially when he advises parents not to fund students majoring in Art History. As it happens, I've spent a goodly part of the last five years helping an Art History student work her way through the system, and it's too late to change course now. Way I see it, the rich will be with us always, they will always spend money on pitchas, and they need someone to tell 'em that their taste stinks.

To put Celente into perspective, please take note of this piece from November of last year, when he predicted that the Great Depression will have occurred by now.

"I have no crystal ball, nor do I claim to have well-developed psychic powers, but I’d be willing to bet almost anything that next Thanksgiving season will be dramatically different from this one"...

We are confronting "dollar plummeting hysteria, monumental levels of debt, foreclosure, bankruptcy, unemployment, energy depletion, skyrocketing gas and food prices, illnesses treated without health insurance coverage—or just not treated, unprecedented levels of homelessness, and by all indications, within a few months into 2008, America will be well on the road to a re-run of 1929-or something inconceivably worse..."

Here we are, Thanksgiving of 2008, and things are indeed looking bad, although not that bad. Not yet.

Dan Tynan of Computerworld Blogs has posted a riposte to the predictions given in the above video. Tynan looked up a book of predictions Celente wrote back in 1997. It contains some real howlers:

Voluntary simplicity, once merely a counterculture ideal, will finally become a reality in the twenty-first century. ....Moderation, self-discipline, and spiritual growth will be the personal goals of the future, not material accumulation.

Such a stunningly accurate description of the Bush years.... NOT. Apparently Celente missed the boom in SUV sales (at least until gas hit $4 a gallon). The good news: He's got another 92 years for this one to come true.

The trend to convert lawns into gardens will have a significant impact not only on the way we eat but also on how we live and feel. ....Billions of dollars formerly spent on lawn care will either be saved or re-deployed into producing fresh food.

I was just thinking that as I waded through the succotash on my front lawn....

Here's what Celente missed: The Internet. Blogs. Online video. Digital music. The explosion in mobile communications. Social networks. The complete upheaval in the entertainment and information industries caused by all of the above.

Celente isn't a seer. He just looks at current trends and extrapolates.

In other words, if Celente sees me driving north, he could presume that I'm moving to Canada, when I'm actually just having lunch in Santa Barbara.

That said, I like the idea of a less commercialized Christmas. Those who work retail may feel differently.