Secret Origins of Foleygate

First, let's clarify one key point: Mark Foley created this scandal, and so did the Republican leadership that covered up for him. Do not construe my words here as an attempt to shift blame.

With the right wing in control of both the Justice Department and much of the media, I can sympathize with the unknown party who decided to use "subtle" means to make the world take note of Foley. As I've said before: If the Rovians can use covert tactics to spread lies, we can use covert tactics to spread truths.

Few believe that the Stop Sex Predators blog -- which first published the emails -- is legit. To my eyes, the whole thing was an obvious fake from the get-go. The proprietor has not answered my emails. Neither has he communicated with anyone else.

The site had but one purpose: To publicize the original Foleygate emails and (perhaps) other material. That's why the blog went up shortly after both CREW and John Avarosis received the evidence.

At this point, I should reiterate that the emails exist in two different versions; one is a retyping of the other. No-one has yet explained this oddity. Avarosis published the same version that Stop Sex Predators received. In fact, the angle of the scan is the same in both cases -- a telling detail. Presumably, someone sent the same jpg image to both JA and SSP.

I had a brief, but interesting, exchange of emails with Avarosis. What I am about to reveal is not an easy admission, since I acted impetuously and foolishly...

(To read the rest, click "Permalink" below)

I flat-out accused John Avarosis of being part of a two-man team behind the Stop Sex Predators site. He persuasively denied the claim, and has repeated his denial on his blog. Apparently, Sean Hannity has been making a similar accusation.

If Hannity's thinking paralleled mine -- well, that's no source of pride, since my motives differ from those of the right-wingers. Frankly, I admire the way Mark Foley was exposed. In my email to Avarosis, I volunteered to make the Stop Sex Predators site a little more detailed, a little less flagrantly phonus-balonus.

We must take John Avarosis at his word when he denies any foreknowledge of this scandal. But we should note that in 2004, Avarosis wrote the following:

"...One more thing, semi-closeted Congressman Mark Foley's (R-FL) former chief of staff Kirk Fordham says in the article that he never spoke with me about his former boss' being gay. That's an outright lie. I've been friends with Kirk for going on ten years now, and he's confirmed Foley's sexual orientation numerous times to me and to many many others..."

(Emphasis added.) Just today, AP has reported:

Kirk Fordham, the longtime top adviser to Mark Foley who resigned today as chief of staff to NRCC chief Tom Reynolds, has just told the Associated Press that he told Speaker Dennis Hastert's office about Foley's conduct two years ago and asked the leadership "to intervene" in Foley's case -- a year before GOP House leaders have claimed they heard about it. If true, this revelation blows apart the official House leadership line that they were first alerted to the problem when they learned of the "overly friendly" emails. What's more, Fordham also says he'll disclose to the FBI and House ethics committee "any and all meetings and phone calls" regarding Foley's behavior that he had with senior leadership staffers.

Here is how ABC's Brian Ross describes his original source for the emails:

Mr. Ross declined to identify any of the sources by name. He described the first tipster as a "Capitol Hill source" -- though not an aide or congressional official -- who was "aware of the pages' complaints" and "concerned about kids and pedophiles." This person, Mr. Ross said, is "involved in public-policy issues" but isn't affiliated with either political party.

I'm not sure if these words apply to Fordham. Even so, I would have to say that Fordham must now be the leading candidate for those trying to answer this key question: "Who gave the goods on Foley to SSP, AmericaBLOG , CREW and ABC?"

Could Fordham himself be the creator of the Stop Sex Predators site? Possibly.

But I believe that honor belongs the other member of the "two man team" mentioned in my rash email to Avarosis: Mike Rogers of BlogActive. Mike Rogers is friendly with John Avarosis, who is friendly with Fordham. It is thus fair to suspect that Rogers and Fordham know each other.

Although I accused Avarosis of being "in it" with Rogers, Avarosis has made no reference to his friend, either in private or on his site. Avarosis insists that he does not know who was behind SSP.

If we posit that Rogers acquired the emails this summer, how would he have proceeded?

He would have had every motive to keep a low profile. Last January, Rogers came in for a great deal of criticism after he published a threat to "out" a senator -- a threat worded in such a way as to expose Rogers to the charge of being a blackmailer. Many people on both the left and the right feel uncomfortable with Rogers' penchant for "outing" gay Republicans.

A man with so controversial a history would probably want to expose Foley while keeping his own name out of the limelight.

But working in the shadows can be unsatisfying. Perhaps that's why Rogers posted a comment to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee website in which he wrote these words, vis-a-vis Foleygate:

"I am glad my work on this is finally coming to fruition."

I wrote an email to the Stop Sex Predators blogger, addressing him as Mike Rogers. No response.

In short and in sum: I think Mike Rogers is the man behind Stop Sex Predators. If that suspicion proves accurate, then he has -- in my view -- behaved honorably in his attempts to expose Foley. If Rogers had published the emails on his own site, he would have saddled the enterprise with his own personal baggage. The far-rightists, who just love to change the subject, would have seized the opportunity to switch the focus from Foley to Rogers.

The ones who have behaved in a truly shabby fashion (aside from Foley and the House Republican leadership) are the FBI investigators who received copies of the "over-friendly" emails from CREW back in July. If anyone at the Bureau had bothered to call up a few pages -- had done some actual investigating -- this whole scandal would have been resolved by now, and some other Republican would be running (and probably winning) in Florida.

The right now wants to pretend that Foley's pecadillos were held back by Democratic activists until close to the election. Bullshit.

Both law enforcement and the media possessed the initial material months ago. Someone tried to spread the word back then. Whoever that someone might have been -- Rogers or someone else -- the obvious goal was to get the wheels of justice turning at that time.

If the FBI guys had done their damned jobs...

As a fellow named Mulder once said: "That's why they put the I in FBI."