Monday, June 19, 2006

Economic doom (with a note about net neutrality)

Although this list has some simplistic entries, it provides a spur to discussion. Here we have one author's list of the top ten reasons why the American economy faces collapse (slightly edited for grammar):

(To read the rest, click "Permalink" below)
#1. The United States government is currently running a budget deficit of $1.8 billion/day. Too much deficit will create a weaker American dollar and cripple the US economy.

#2. The US National Debt is $8 trillion+. It has to be paid back eventually by raising taxes.

#3. Oil prices are $60+ per crude barrel; there is a shortage of oil refineries and demand is growing due to more SUVs/trucks.

#4. China's economy is now bigger than the United States economy; China is now the centre of the global economy.

#5. China's trade exports out-matches the United States -- for example, they can build cars/trucks/SUVs for half the price.

#6. English is no longer the international business language. Mandarin Chinese is now more important.

#7. Global warming is causing the US wheat Belt to turn into desert.

#8. US universities aren't creating enough graduates to compete on the global market. Tuition is too expensive and there aren't enough university professors.

#9. The babyboomers are retiring, creating a shortage of skilled workers.

#10. George W. Bush failed Economics 101. He was too busy snorting cocaine when he was at Yale.
Okay, there are problems here. I think the coke remark is not germane, #7 is premature, the problem with retiring babyboomers (#9) is how to pay for their social security, #6 need not spell disaster, and SUV sales are finally falling.

But there is the deficit. The bone-crushing, soul-sucking Debt Demon. We not only have to pay all that money back, we have to pay it back with interest. That's the part everyone forgets. The Republicans talk about tax cuts, but fully one-third (perhaps soon to be one half) of your tax dollar goes to pay the interest on borrowed funds. Most of the rest goes to the military.

Is there anything -- ANYTHING AT ALL -- we can do to make the dunderheaded Jesusmaniac red staters see this basic fact of life?

After the publication of this top ten list, a more sophisticated writer scraped together a second dark decalogue:
#11. Automobile companies keep laying off unionized workers and moving their factories to China. The only car company building new plants and hiring workers is Japanese car-maker Toyota (which only hires non-union workers).

#12. The US government sold off its oil/gasoline reserves in 2002. It no longer has oil reserves in case of a national shortage.

#13. American taxpayers have an average of $48,000 in debt due to credit cards, mortgages, university debts, etc. If the economy goes sour and they lose their jobs, they may have to declare bankruptcy.

#14. The US dollar is notoriously easy to make counterfeit bills of. Its value of the US dollar is growing steadily lower. Thanks to modern computer printers, counterfeit is very easy to make.

#15. The US economy still has not recovered from 9/11.

#16. The US economy relies on the consumption of goods at a decadent rate. If something happens that throws the economy for a loop, it can very easily fall into a depression.

#17. The US capitalist systems assumes that the United States is at the top of the global economy. It no longer is. China is at the top.

#18. Over 60% of Americans are overweight and/or obese. The health problems resulting from their unhealthy diets combined with a shortage of doctors is causing the US healthcare system to collapse.

#19. The US government can't afford to pay for its soldiers serving in Iraq, Afghanistan, South Korea... as a result, they are scaling back pay, pension and benefits for their soldiers. Injured soldiers have a crippling effect on the US economy and drain precious money from US coffers and families of the soldiers suffer economic consequences because they have to pay the hospital bills.

#20. Foreign investors are no longer investing in American companies. They are investing in Chinese companies.
#15 -- that's the one about 9/11 -- is not, in my view, a significant factor, although in red state mythology, it will loom large as the Great Excuse once the brown stuff splatters against those infamous whirling blades. I have been formulating a conspiracy theory (not really a mature theory -- more of a theorette, which might one day grow into something substantial if given proper care and feeding) that the Bush administration has been secreting oil reserves pilfered from the fields of Iraq. Wouldn't it be a kick if they started slant-drilling into Kuwait? I mean, what could stop them?

Aside from those quibbles, I cannot mount much of an argument against the second ten points.

Just for jolly, here are an additional five, offered by a third author:
#21. Five years of drought and Global Warming has caused many farmers in the American mid-west to declare bankrupty. The US is facing a possible food shortage if current drought trends continue. People aren't building enough green houses to grow food.

#22. Rising costs of airplane flights are stifling business trips by companies seeking to do business.

#23. Global Warming is causing record hurricanes, tropical storms, floods and ecological disasters are destroying homes & businesses in the South-Eastern United States. The storms also prevent oil rigs from drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, causing an oil shortage.

#24. We're already in a recession. A depression is not far away.

#25. The White House is being complacent about the US economy and isn't doing a thing to prevent a depression.
May I add another?

#26. The destruction of net neutrality.

A thriving internet created the last economic boom. Yes, I know that the last boom became a bubble. Still, does anyone doubt that the internet would be at the center of the next economic rebound, presuming that the aforementioned 25 signs of doom prove less-than-fully destructive?

And now the Republicans want to destroy the net, which makes about as much sense as salting our farmlands. In the name of providing megacorp product at ever-higher speeds (as if we needed that), small business and innovative new firms will be taxed out of a place on the web. Worse, the taxes will go into the pockets of the big carriers -- not to Uncle Sam, who could use the dough to help pay down Republican debt.

Small business, which remains the sinew of much of our economy, depends on net neutrality in order to remain competitive.

Red staters like to commie-bait progressives such as yours truly. And yet the current Republican leadership has done more than any other force in the Western world to strengthen China while undermining American capitalism. Is the G.O.P. run by secret Bolshies?

We live in insane times.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

in answer to your last question, well, yeah, a number of the neocons are ex-trotskyites (wolfowitz, for one). hence the pre-emptive war justifications.

as for the list, it pretty much covers it and then some, and like all dynamic systems, it's impossible to predict which flappipng butterfly wing will bring it all down.

but down it will come.

stock up on canned goods and toilet paper.

Anonymous said...

It's a shame the various lists were so pathetic that even m.jed could knock them down, one hand tied behind his back.

Still, anyone who doesn't realize the financial/economic trainwreck is coming is wilfully blind or living in an ivory tower of some sort.

Joseph Cannon said...

I'm cutting out m. jed's comments. FOREVER and ON SIGHT. Anyone who discounts global warming at this stage of the game is not merely a conservative and not merely a dupe, but a paid propagandist.

Don't bother trying it again, mj. Go elsewhere.

Anonymous said...

Oh, and mjed? Please take America's 50 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities with you. Thanks.

zelduh said...

May I recommend another for the list?

It is the threat of Iran and Venezuela to accept Euros for the purchase of their oil.

HISTORY:
* Shortly before Bushco started with all the anti-Saddam rhetoric in 2001, Saddam threatened to accept Euros for the purchase of Iraqi oil.

* Shortly before Bush started with all the recent anti-Iran rhetoric, you guessed it: Iran wanted to switch their oil bourse to to Euro-based trading.

* And (surprise!) Hugo Chavez said Venezuela is willing to accept Euros for their oil - right before Bush began the anti-Chavez rhetoric -and right before a certain religious leader recommended assassinating Chavez.

So, it's about OIL, but about how countries pay for the oil.

If the OIL ECONOMY becomes Euro-based, countries will not need to stockpile US Dollars for the purchase of oil, and our economy will sink into the abyss of ancient american (lower case intentional) history.

Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...

"I also believe I said that even scientists who believe in anthropogenic global warming don't attribute the increased hurricane activity to this phenomenon. " Says so M. Jed.

Emanuel is himself one of those scientists "who believe in anthropogenic global warming". The fact that some lay people may (or may not) falsely attribute particular hurricane activity (or backyard flooding) to global warming -- or who do so with inadequate evidence -- is beside the point, isn't it?

You're entitled to believe that global warming isn't happening, and that the polar ice caps aren't melting, but some of us would just as soon debate this question as whether the moon is made of green cheese.... In other words, it's a settled issue, except for Exxon-Mobil and the Rapture crowd.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

naplesnews.com
Brent Batten: Earth’s climate is warming? Ask Gray

By Brent Batten

Sunday, July 2, 2006

Professor William Gray of Colorado State University is one of America’s leading weather researchers. His work in the field of hurricanes is widely touted.

Gray’s annual prediction of the number of named storms likely to hit the United States has become a staple of the media’s annual buildup to the June 1 start of hurricane season.

He has been studying the Earth’s climate for some 50 years and has testified before Congress as recently as last week.

Surely someone of such eminence has thoughts to share on global warming, the phenomenon everyone’s talking about since the release of the movie, “An Inconvenient Truth.” Media, what sayeth William Gray about this idea that human activities are precipitating a worldwide climate catastrophe?

Chirp, chirp.

While Gray can’t sneeze on the subject of hurricanes without someone making it into front page news — the CSU media relations bureau is set up to handle requests for Gray, by far the most in demand interview on campus, according to spokeswoman Emily Wilmsen — his views on global warming aren’t nearly as sought after or well publicized.

Maybe that’s because Gray’s opinions run counter to the prevailing popular notion that greenhouse gases from humans burning fuel is driving up the Earth’s temperature and leading to things such as stronger and more frequent hurricanes.

Very counter.

“I am of the opinion that this is one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the American people,” Gray told the Washington Post in May in one of the relative handful of well-hidden accounts of his position.

Last week the Associated Press ran a story beginning, “The nation’s top climate scientists are giving ‘An Inconvenient Truth,’ Al Gore’s documentary on global warming, five stars for accuracy.”

The news agency spoke with 19 scientists who had seen the movie or read the book to arrive at its conclusion. Even though one of the film’s contentions is that man-made global warming is causing more frequent and severe hurricanes, Gray wasn’t one of them.

Neither was Phil Klotzbach, Gray’s research associate at Colorado State. Klotzbach said there is little doubt that the Earth’s temperature is rising, What is in doubt is whether human activity is a major factor or whether the warming is part of a natural cycle that plays out over eons.

“If you’d poll 100 scientists you’d get 100 opinions. Dr. Gray might say (humans are responsible for) 2 percent. Others would say 95 percent,” Klotzbach said.

When the media is looking for information on hurricanes, work done by Gray and Klotzbach at CSU is quickly accepted as authoritative. So what do their CSU studies show about global warming and hurricanes? Klotzbach just published a paper titled “Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Past 20 Years.”

While the research found an increase in tropical storms in the North Atlantic region, it found a comparable decrease in the Northeast Pacific.

Bottom line: “This study indicates that, based on data over the last 20 years, no increasing trend is evident in global accumulated cyclone energy or category 4-5 hurricanes.”

“I’d say a lot of (Gore’s) stuff is overblown as far as hurricanes,” Klotzbach said.

How inconvenient.