Saturday, January 01, 2005

Phantom votes in New Mexico

(Note: Scroll down for the main round-up of vote fraud news. This post is a late addendum.)

We've all heard of the spooky mysteries in the land of the blue corn enchilada: That "haunted" spiral staircase...Roswell...the Penitentes. And now we have another New Mexican legend to add to the list: The Phantom Voter!

The "Phantom Voter" phenomenon occurs when a precinct reports a higher number of votes than is justified by the number of ballots cast. For details, go here and here.

How many phantom votes contributed to the narrow Bush win in this state? Over 2000. Of course, the existence of even a single phantom vote testifies to a conspiracy to steal the election.

There is also the cognate phenomenon of undrvotes -- ballots which register no preference in the presidential race. A small number of undervote ballots occur in every state, but the number in NM has long been very high -- suspiciously high.

To make matters worse: The undervotes can mask the phantom votes. That is, the ballots in which no presidential choice can be discerned (perhaps because they were pre-punched) are not only bad in and of themselves -- they will also hide any attempt to "salt" the totals by tossing a few fake ballots into the stew.

Tales of rigged votes on Indian reservations are common, of course.
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Comments:
A month ago, I wrote an article about all the election irregularities in New Mexico at my blog for my series entitle "50 States Mislead Their Voters." Along with a recap of some of the strange incidents, I also crunched a few numbers and provided background on some of the key players that may have impacted the results. Here's a link: Recount In New Mexico"George Bush received 11,376 votes to Al Gore's 6,337 in Chavez County, New Mexico in the 2000 election (18,143 including the third party candidates). (Roswell-usa.com). In 2004 Chaves County, New Mexico recorded 14773 votes for Bush (68.1%)and 6726 votes for Kerry (31.0%) (including the third party candidates). (SOS.NM). This amounts to a vote increase of 19.6% for 2004. This is below the state rate of 26%, but the margin of victory of Bush over Gore compared to Bush over Kerry rose four percentage points, which is considerably more than it did for the entire state (.8%)."

Peace
 
Joe, let's get organised.

Orange seems to be the natural colour for an election fraud protest.
 
Color is good but what is NEEDED is a song:

http://www.orangeukraine.squarespace.com/journal/2004/11/29/razom-nas-bahato.html
 
Hey, I have enjoyed...your blog is informative - even entertaining.

I have a halloween sites. They pretty much covers costumes and masks related stuff.

Thanks again and I'll be sure to bookmark you.
 
Hello,

I am searching for fresh information
for my cc Infopage, 30,000 daily updated Information Pages about all kind of subjects.

It might interest you to know that your blog has been visited and has been read. I hope you enjoy your "Blogging".

I wish you all the luck I can, keep the good work going!

Kind regards,
Jos
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American democracy, RIP: 1789-2005.

When you think about it, 216 years is a pretty good run, as democratic experiments go. Even so, let's all do our damnedest to keep the experiment going. Do not go gently, and all that.

Exit polls. "TruthIsAll," the nomme-de-net of a poster on the Democratic Underground, directs our attention to a startling new interpretation of the exit poll figures. I hope no-one will mind if I republish the material here.

Our attention is drawn, first and foremost, to this CNN page displaying exit poll information. (The page takes a while to load.) TruthIsAll then asks:

Am I reading this correctly? If I am, we have the SMOKING GUN:

1) 59% of the 17% who did NOT vote in 2000 but who did in 2004 voted for Kerry. Just 39% for Bush.

2) 65% of those who did NOT vote for Bush or Gore in 2000 voted for Kerry. Just 13% for Bush and 16% for Nader.

3) 91% of those who voted for Gore, voted for Kerry.

4) 90% of those who voted for Bush in 2000, voted for Bush in 2004.
On the face of it, these exit numbers are just as damning as anything to come out of the Ukraine.

More on exit polls. Dr. Steven Freeman has updated his investigation again. This summary says it all:

National Election Pool pollsters have acknowledged that their polls deviate from official totals by 1.9% nationwide (a 3.8% shift from Kerry to Bush) and intimated that this deviation was caused by disproportionate numbers of Bush voters refusing to participate in the polls. Analysis of the available data and theory, however, strongly suggests that at least part of the discrepancy is due to miscount. Moreover, a review of 2004 election processes suggests little reason for confidence that the count reflects either the intent of the electorate or the way that the votes were cast.

I expect this claim will meet with incredulity and anger. The idea of mass-scale electoral fraud in a US Presidential election may be difficult to fathom - or to stomach.
The paper is a draft version, labelled "not to circulate." But it is nonetheless on the net for anyone to read -- so read it.

Nota bene: If you've been following this controversy, you'll get a huge kick out of part 2 of Freeman's new work, in which he skewers "The Prevailing Theory" of the exit poll/actual tally discrepancy: "Bush Voters' Disproportionate Refusal to Participate." (Participate in the exit polls, that is.) In the past, I've called this the "chatty Dem" theory, which presumes that Republicans are preternaturally reticent to express an opinion. If you've ever met a Republican -- or if you've ever sampled the nazified thuggery over at the "Free Republic" site -- you'll understand why I've always considered that presumption a gut-buster.

Freeman addresses the notion that Republicans are "busier" than Democrats -- too busy to talk to pollsters. But as the CNN chart cited above makes clear, the lower income groups all broke for Kerry. The working poor have far, far less free time than do their economic superiors.

Conyers will challenge. John Conyers will formally challenge the Ohio slate of electors, and he will not be the only House member to do so. Conyers believes that the flagrant illegal activity on the part of Kenny "the kapo" Blackwell justifies discounting the Ohio electors. The point appears indisputable, even if we restrict the argument to the deliberately lengthened election lines in Democratic districts.

As noted, Byrd might step in as the Senator supporting this objection. If he does, then the Bush 2005 election will always have an asterisk next to it -- the first election in well over a century to be formally challenged. And that, my friends, will constitute a victory of sorts. Politics has always been a dirty game, but the Republicans have made matters far filthier, and this gesture -- even if symbolic -- will help awaken the world to that fact.

The recount. The recount in Ohio is over, although we have (as noted earlier) no reason to believe that the new count was any cleaner than the first one. Under Ohio's "three percent" rule, three percent of the precincts in each county were to be chosen at random for a confirmatory count; if the tallies were off, the full county would be recounted.

The Republicans, alas, had a very elastic interpretation of the words "at random," which they took to mean "not at random." The recount, in short, had more "fudge room" than Willy Wonka's factory. This illegal maneuver -- and I have cited but one among many -- alone justifies the Conyers challenge to Ohio's electors.

Precinct cross-voting: In the past, we have discussed, briefly, how the rotating order of names on the Ohio ballots may have helped Bush in Ohio. The situation, we now learn, was worse than we once thought. This fine site explains the crime in detail, with lots of graphs and charts and all that good stuff.

The basic problem: A number of voting places served more than one precinct. The order of the names differed between the precincts. If a voter took a ballot into the wrong booth -- a not-infrequent occurrence -- his Bush vote might register as a Kerry vote, or vice-versa.

All right, you say -- but shouldn't that error skew in both directions? Not if the problem stays within a district such a Cuyahoga County, which heavily favors the Democratic party:

For Cuyahoga County, 602,048 votes are reported, more than 1/10 of the Ohio vote. Since John Kerry received 66.75 percent of the vote in this county, on average, given random events, he would lose two votes to cross-precinct voting to every vote Bush would lose. This estimate assumes a random distribution of cross-voting in relation to candidate support.

The statistics indicated otherwise -- a third mystery. Why is cross-voting unevenly distributed? Finding an answer to my question was not going to be simple. Since the precincts in the county are not all split 2:1 in Kerry's favor, where cross-precinct voting occurs will impact the ratio of lost and switched votes.
There's much more. The bottom line is the the cross-precinct phenomenon occurred primarily in Democratic areas -- and that this phenomenon will almost always artificially boost the numbers of the less-popular candidate.

Additional indicators of fraud. If you are looking for a single story to send to Robert Byrd, send this Truthout expose of vote fraud in Ohio. (If Byrd receives about a trillion copies of this piece, he'll have to read it at least once.) I can't help passing along a choice quote:

In the heavily Republican southern county of Perry, Blackwell certified one precinct with 221 more votes than registered voters. Two precincts - Reading S and W. Lexington G - were let stand in the officially certified final vote count with voter turnouts of roughly 124% each.

In Miami County's Concord South West precinct, Blackwell certified a voter turnout of 98.55 percent, requiring that all but 10 voters in the precinct cast ballots. But a freepress.org canvas easily found 25 voters who said they did not vote...

By contrast, in heavily Democratic Cuyahoga County, amidst record turnouts, a predominantly African-American precinct, Cleveland 6C, was certified with just a 07.85 percent turnout.
Nothing suspicious here, folks.

Provisionally speaking. Here's a fun fact you may want to pass along to your red state relatives:

Some 14.6% of Ohio votes were cast on electronic machines with no paper trail, rendering them unauditable. But on election night, electronic machines and computer software were used throughout the state to tabulate paper ballots. The contrasts are striking. Officially, Bush built a narrow margin of roughly 51% versus 48% for Kerry based on votes counted on election night. But among the 147,400 provisional and absentee ballots that were counted AFTER election night, Kerry received 54.46 percent of the vote. These later totals came from counts done by hand, as opposed to counts done by computer tabulators, many of which came from Diebold.
The story does not end there. As I've noted earlier, we have good reason to suspect that Blackwell simply tossed out a number of provisional ballots that went for Kerry. Allow me to repeat a point I made on December 12:

According to an AP report, four out of every five provisional ballots were deemed acceptable. Yet in Cuyahoga County -- Kerry country -- that figure dropped to two out of three.

In order to reach the state-wide figure, the acceptability of the ballots must have been judged by a very, very lenient standard in counties outside Cuyahoga.

In Bush-land, Kenny's attitude was "Provisional ballots? Sure! We love 'em! No need to examine the details very closely -- we trust the voters!" Yet in Kerry-land, Kenny became a hard-ass: "Provisionals? I dunno -- these things can be mighty iffy. We'd better double-check and triple-check. Make sure the addresses and signatures are valid."

Despite this differing approach, and despite the fact that absentee/military votes often skew Republican, Kerry won 54.46 of the provisional/absentee ballots.

Recusal. Interestingly, Ohio Supreme Court Chief Justice Moyer refused to recuse himself in a case involving his own re-election. Here in California, any party to a minor lawsuit can ask for -- and receive -- a new judge without offering any reason for the request. But in Ohio, an elected official is allowed to decide a matter involving his own election.

Is there a non-corrupt Republican judge anywhere in this country?

Didja know? Angry Girl, a blogger who is also in the band Nightweed, has compiled a superb list of 20 Amazing Facts About Voting in the USA. I'll reprint just the facts; go to her page for the many supporting citations.

Did you know....

1. 80% of all votes in America are counted by only two companies: Diebold and ES&S.

2. There is no federal agency with regulatory authority or oversight of the U.S. voting machine industry.

3. The vice-president of Diebold and the president of ES&S are brothers.

4. The chairman and CEO of Diebold is a major Bush campaign organizer and donor who wrote in 2003 that he was "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year."

5. Republican Senator Chuck Hagel used to be chairman of ES&S. He became Senator based on votes counted by ES&S machines.

6. Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, long-connected with the Bush family, was recently caught lying about his ownership of ES&S by the Senate Ethics Committee.

7. Senator Chuck Hagel was on a short list of George W. Bush's vice-presidential candidates.

8. ES&S is the largest voting machine manufacturer in the U.S. and counts almost 60% of all U.S. votes.

9. Diebold's new touch screen voting machines have no paper trail of any votes. In other words, there is no way to verify that the data coming out of the machine is the same as what was legitimately put in by voters.

10. Diebold also makes ATMs, checkout scanners, and ticket machines, all of which log each transaction and can generate a paper trail.

11. Diebold is based in Ohio.

12. Diebold employed 5 convicted felons as consultants and developers to help write the central compiler computer code that counted 50% of the votes in 30 states.
http://www.wired.com/news/evote/0,2645,61640,00.html

13. Jeff Dean was Senior Vice-President of General Election Systems when it was bought by Diebold. Even though he had been convicted of 23 counts of felony theft in the first degree, Jeff Dean was retained as a consultant by Diebold and was largely responsible for programming the optical scanning software now used in most of the United States.

14. Diebold consultant Jeff Dean was convicted of planting back doors in his software and using a "high degree of sophistication" to evade detection over a period of 2 years.

15. None of the international election observers were allowed in the polls in Ohio.

16. California banned the use of Diebold machines because the security was so bad. Despite Diebold's claims that the audit logs could not be hacked, a chimpanzee was able to do it!

17. 30% of all U.S. votes are carried out on unverifiable touch screen voting machines with no paper trail.

18. All -- not some -- but all the voting machine errors detected and reported in Florida went in favor of Bush or Republican candidates.

19. The governor of the state of Florida, Jeb Bush, is the President's brother.

20. Serious voting anomalies in Florida -- again always favoring Bush -- have been mathematically demonstrated and experts are recommending further investigation.
A fine start, Angry One, but there is oh-so-much-more. A few more fun facts:

21. The money power behind ES&S is the Ahmanson family, which also supports Dominionism, an anti-democratic form of Christian theocracy.

22. In Warren county, Ohio, the el-fake-o "Homeland Security" alert allowed the Republicans to keep media observers out of the Board of Elections. Not only that, all Democratic and third-party observers were kept out as well.

Gee -- you think they'll have something to say about the vote? Rev. Jesse Jackson has announced that he and Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs-Jones will hold a press conference at 2 pm on Sunday, January 2nd, at the Olivet Institutional Baptist Church, 88th and Quincy in Cleveland.

Jackson has already said that the Ohio recount "was not conducted in a meaningful manner based on uniform standards as required by the equal protection and due process provisions of the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution."

Code orange. There is an international movement to make orange the official color of vote fraud protest. Not my favorite color, frankly. My lady hates orange. How about black? Black is both elegant and funereal -- very much in keeping with the title of this particular post.
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Comments:
Joseph, I prefer a more earthy, burnt orange, which goes nicely with black. Incidentally, orange was chosen as a symbol of the travesty in Florida, where all republican dreams come true.
 
WOW! Another SUPER article. It compiles much of the fraudulant election into one article. It would take forever to compile everything. It cannot reasonably be viewed as anything other than BLATANT FASCISM IN THE USA that must be stopped if it is not already to late to do so.
 
Hi, Joseph: Thank you for an excellent piece.

I agree with almost everything you have said, but I cannot join you in support of black. Orange is visible, active, engaged and engaging! Black is WAY too subdued; it makes you look like an investment banker. Orange says "Caution! Danger!" Black says "Too late! Too bad!"

Domestic tranquility being what it is, I do not contest your lady's opinion lightly. But in this one case I really do think she's wrong. Domestic tranquility is for later. Maybe. But for now, orange is definitely the color.
 
Well, it's a super article for comic book readers. If you want something that corresponds to reality, you will, as usual, have to look elesewhere. The page displaying early exit poll results tells us nothing new, but raises again the question of how those early polls were manipulated. The actual final exit poll results can be found exactly where a sane person would expect to find them:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

You continue to ignore the obvious objections to your fantasies:
1) Why does the Kerry campaign maintain absolute silence on the subject of exit polls? Could it be that, as they know who mainipulated them, they really don't want to open what promises to be a can of worms? Mitofsky IS a Democrat, a slightly inconvenient fact for the fantasists. Yes, let's investigate those implausible results thoroughly. We should all be eager to discover how Kerry built up his 20-point lead in Pennsylvania.
2) You continue to act as though no Democratic election officials are ever present anywhere. Internet liars keep braying about the Warren County lock-out, but Jeff Ruppert, a lawyer for the Kerry campaign was present, as were several Democrat election officials. All this imaginary skullduggery, and no Democrat is ever around.
3) Everybody is still looking for that one county with a truly anomalous result.

Your "smoking gun" remains a worthless, manifestly rigged exit poll.
 
"The actual final exit poll results can be found exactly where a sane person would expect to find them...."

It's difficult to know if your posts are the result of ignorance or calculated disinformation, but let me take you by hand, once again, and show how the world actually works, on the one factual claim you make which can be easily tested.

The exit polls you cite are *adjusted*, meaning they were brought into conformity with tabulated votes. These "adjustments" are performed at the end of the night, when exit polls are no longer being used for predictive value (we already know the result by then), but rather for demographic analysis. The only "real" exit polls are the early ones -- those unadjusted (i.e., uncorrupted) by actual vote tallies.

Now, if you want a thorough investigation of early exit polls which showed Kerry ahead in virtually every contested state, I suspect every reader of this board would whole-heartedly agree -- provided, of course, the actual voting in those states receives the same scrutiny.

Further, I gather you're persuaded early exit polling is an accurate predictor of voting (your right-wing colleagues apparently think so, when it comes to Ukraine). So I can only assume you will agree that Bush stole the election, if it can be shown that exits polls consistently favored Kerry and contested states, and no fraud was found.

Or doesn't your world work quite that way?
 
The fact that two brothers and two companies with ties to the Republican Party, Christian Dominionists, and the Military Industrial Complex sit unregulated with their felonious staff in the private tabulation of 80% of America's vote is enough evidence for me to challenge the transparency and legitimacy of this election. Kerry can sit as quiet as he wants because I don't believe the powers that be were going to lose either way. We lost...not Kerry!

As I have always advocated and as a citizen...I demand verifiable paper trail balloting with dual tabulation! In other words:

1) Voters sign in to vote
2) They cast their ballots on new electronic machines
3) They then view their paper ballot behind glass to verify their vote
4) They receive a paper receipt for their vote
5) They sign out to vote certifying that their vote was properly recorded
6) Both the electronic ballots and the paper ballots are counted independently of each other. Paper ballots shall be hand counted!
7) Standardized machines for the purpose of voting and tabulation are used in every precinct in the country and all machines and counting is under government control and regulation with independent supervision.

If we can spend $250 billion dollars for an illegal war and occupation to protect American oil and gas companies and heap profit upon our Military Industrial Complex...we can surely spend a few billion dollars to protect our own democarcy and insure our elections are fair, clean, and legitimate in every race, especailly races for President. We demand a new election! Using the process and systems above! And then let's see if George W. Bush can get away with another one! It's time to demand another election with the investment mentioned, otherwise it's time to take to the streets and take our country back!
 
The fact that two brothers and two companies with ties to the Republican Party, Christian Dominionists, and the Military Industrial Complex sit unregulated with their felonious staff in the private tabulation of 80% of America's vote is enough evidence for me to challenge the transparency and legitimacy of this election. Kerry can sit as quiet as he wants because I don't believe the powers that be were going to lose either way. We lost...not Kerry!

As I have always advocated and as a citizen...I demand verifiable paper trail balloting with dual tabulation! In other words:

1) Voters sign in to vote
2) They cast their ballots on new electronic machines
3) They then view their paper ballot behind glass to verify their vote
4) They receive a paper receipt for their vote
5) They sign out to vote certifying that their vote was properly recorded
6) Both the electronic ballots and the paper ballots are counted independently of each other. Paper ballots shall be hand counted!
7) Standardized machines for the purpose of voting and tabulation are used in every precinct in the country and all machines and counting is under government control and regulation with independent supervision.

If we can spend $250 billion dollars for an illegal war and occupation to protect American oil and gas companies and heap profit upon our Military Industrial Complex...we can surely spend a few billion dollars to protect our own democarcy and insure our elections are fair, clean, and legitimate in every race, especailly races for President. We demand a new election! Using the process and systems above! And then let's see if George W. Bush can get away with another one! It's time to demand another election with the investment mentioned, otherwise it's time to take to the streets and take our country back!
 
Thank you Joseph for the awesome and comprehensive piece on vote fraud, a standing ovation from this corner.

On orange v. black, it's not over til it's over. If we believe in the vote fraud, and I think, unfortunately, that we have no choice but to, then we know there are more of us than them. In my mind, there is no such thing as "random error" skewing in only one direction regardless of the measure used. In the absence of the introduction of some other below the radar unmeasured independent variable, you would expect random error. Random (honest) error is usually present (and is accounted for in the +- statements), and can go either way. But in this case, the +- is well above that predictable noise level. These "unmeasured" independent variables (we refer to as vote fraud) are exactly what the statistical reports are bringing to light and describing. Each report fairly includes those possible IV's like "republican reluctance" etc. AND goes on to discount those theories as being capable of accounting for ALL of the discrepancy found between the final vote and THE measure - the exit polls. If some logic is escaping me, please tell. (Not counting pomeroo the perhaps necessary but irrelevant antagonist in this perticular scenario).

Since we know there are more of us believing in truth and fairness and democracy than there are of them, the manipulators, we MUST still be a mostly Democratic America - albeit a seriously forewarned one!

So I say, Code Orange. I too hate orange - but just enough to piss me off and to remain disgusted and cautioned that we have been formally put on notice. As the majority, we can do what we need to do...Speak Out.

As a majority, we must battle the phenomenon of "Diffusion of Responsibility" (remember Kitty Genovese), whereby the more people present to witness a crime in process, the less each individual is to believe that there is NOT "another guy" who will the take the responsibility to help. The unfortunate result is that no one acts - each thinks another guys will step in. Kitty was murdered, there were many bystanders. Also called, bystander apathy.

Another thank you to Joseph and all Americans out there who are not letting this go.

Samual Adams, in my favorite quote, "If we suffer tamely an attack on our liberty, we encourage it...and involve others in our doom."
 
Here is a note sent to me by Michael Barone, senior political analyst at the U.S. News & World Report:

"I'm not sure the Democrats slammed the exit polls; I just
think it's very likely. It's the only way I can explain the
58-59% the exit polls showed for Kerry in MN, PA and NH
and the relatively even results they showed for VA, NC
and SC. The reason the networks, including Fox, were
late projecting Bush in NC and SC was the exit poll
numbers. We had to make sure what we suspected,
which is that they were wrong and the tabulated vote
would show clear Bush victories."

Michael Barone


I have often cited John Fund's book, Stealing Elections. He makes the point that Democrats are unreceptive to any reforms that serve to reduce vote fraud and create a verifiable paper trail. I enthusiastically support precisely the steps you outline. But the Democrats do not want fair and honest voting. And for good reason--they just stole an election in the state of Washington.
Want to hear their latest fabrication? They claim that Republicans sent flyers to black voters telling them that the election would be held on a Wednesday. Let's agree that anyone over the age of ten who doesn't know that Election Day falls every year, 100% of the time, on a Tuesday is a moron. The disgraceful, racist assumption that blacks could be tricked into going to the polls on the wrong day is beyond the pale. Do you believe that the Republicans would authorize, and pay for, such a stupid, ham-fisted stunt, when the only possible outcome is a Democrat screaming about it on all media outlets that tolerate such nonsense? I predict that the voter suppression scam is going to blow up in the Democrats' faces very soon.

Are you ever going to address the Kerry camp's silence on the subject of exit polls? They know what happened: You still don't get it. Explain, once and for all, how did Kerry acquire his 20-point lead in Pennsylvania. Was it real? Why did he actually win by 2 points? Assuming that the Bush magicians vanished hundreds of thousands of votes, why did the pre-election polls show Kerry with a small lead in the state. What about New Hampshire? Minnesota? How about the insane exit poll results from those Southern states--were they really too close to call? I'm still trying to determine if you people actually swallow this idiocy, or if it's another con.
 
Poor Pomeroo. And now poor Mr. Barone. Can you post a link to his analysis supporting his theory? BTW, his "what went wrong" opinion is addressed in the Simon et. al. report - that you still haven't read.

Love your show! But you're at the wrong party. Here we celebrate truth...not red herrings.
 
"I have often cited John Fund's book, Stealing Elections. He makes the point that Democrats are unreceptive to any reforms that serve to reduce vote fraud and create a verifiable paper trail."

I see. That explains why Democrats introduced legislation to require paper trails, and Republicans refused to act on it.

"I enthusiastically support precisely the steps you outline."

In that case, you're out of step with your own party. Better talk to Barone and Fund to get the story straight.

"But the Democrats do not want fair and honest voting. And for good reason--they just stole an election in the state of Washington."

Yes, when all the votes are counted (including votes intitially disqualified by incompetent election officials), and Democrats win, it's clear evidence of cheating. What is it with Republicans, that they just can't bear to count all the votes -- unless, of course, they happen to be losing?

Apparently, in your view, Democrats are doing such a grand job of stealing elections, they have no incentive to reform the counting procedure. I gather you live a parallel universe, where the Democrats control the Presidency and the Congress, and have for years, thanks to vote fraud.


"Want to hear their latest fabrication? They claim that Republicans sent flyers to black voters telling them that the election would be held on a Wednesday."

This is hardly the "latest". There's a Republican operative (the name momentarily escapes me), formerly of Ohio, currently on trial for just this sort of dirty trick. Suppression of the black vote in the U.S. is hardly anything new, it's been going on for centuries. You may recall that an act of congress addressed the issue.

If you think Republicans and GWB aren't capable of such perfidy, ask John McCain about what GWB's operatives were saying about him (McCain) in South Carolina. Or how about those Republican delegates, who never served a day in the military (they had "other priorities at the time"), mocking Kerry's war wounds (the man still carries sharpnel)?


"Let's agree that anyone over the age of ten who doesn't know that Election Day falls every year, 100% of the time, on a Tuesday is a moron. The disgraceful, racist assumption that blacks could be tricked into going to the polls on the wrong day is beyond the pale."

Now I'm a racist. Thank you for very much. Consider this: when most Americans believe things that are patently and demonstrably false, why should we assume that many of them (regardless of color) can't be persuaded that voting occurs on a Wednesday? After all, many of your fellow right-wingers believe they're going to ascend to heaven in the Rapture, any day now. In the face of that absurdity (and dozens of others, from supply-side economics to Saddam's "link" to 9/11), what's an election on Wednesday? If that's the worst thing Americans can be persuaded of, there's hope for this country.

"Do you believe that the Republicans would authorize, and pay for, such a stupid, ham-fisted stunt, when the only possible outcome is a Democrat screaming about it on all media outlets that tolerate such nonsense?"

What media outlets? Where have you seen these accusations? Most Americans get their news from TV. If it ain't on TV, it don't matter. Republican operatives knows this as well as you and I do. Which is why they're perfectly happy performing ham-fisted voter suppression.

Of course, I could go on and on, but it's a waste a breath, isn't it?
 
Joe, you may not be a fan of orange, but the Ukranians have forever associated fluoro orange with protests against election fraud in the minds of any thinking person who reads the news.

Orange ribbon campaign, here we come!
 
I love the one about Republican fraud in New Mexico: yeah, that Bill Richardson is a crafty guy. He and Rove must be really chuckling--wait a minute. Didn't the Republicans accuse Gore of stealing New Mexico in 2000? Isn't Richardson a Democrat? I have a hunch the Dems won't be pressing too hard to look at those New Mexico results. It's a very safe bet that Bush won by more than the official margin.

We've been over the various voter suppression canards. Bottom line: black turnout in Florida four years ago was up by 300,000 over 1996. This year, turnout in Cuyahoga County, Ohio increased at a higher rate than in the rest of the state. How do you continue to make a baseless charge that is flatly contradicted by the actual numbers?

Whenever a flyer containing crude racist sentiments is brought to my attention, it always by a Democrat on a talk show. I'm just curious why those horrible Republicans waste time and money giving their opponents free publicity. The only possible purpose of these simpleminded appeals to bigotry--the ONLY way this farce could play out--is to keep black voters from straying off the Democratic plantation. How could that benefit Republicans? Hey, I just thought of the party it benefits...

The problem in Washington is that three tallies showed the Republican winning. Each time, more Democrat votes are "discovered" in--surprise!--Democrat-controlled Kings County. You can follow this story on realclearpolitics.com. Not only partisan Republicans are noticing the stench.

Richard Morin, Polling Director for The Washington Post and a Democrat, thinks that everyone is making too much of those exit polls. He notes that they were skewed to the Democrat by as much in 1992: nobody cared because the election wasn't as close. There was a slightly smaller Democrat skew in 2000, and a smaller one still in 1996. Why there are always Democrat skews remains a mystery, but he doesn't think Barone is right about the slamming. You see, the locations of the indicator precinct are supposed to be kept secret, so how could Democrat operatives learn where to go. Nobody in a polling firm could possibly leak information, so I guess that settles it.

The people on this site resolutely refuse to confront hard data. They ride their hobbyhorses into the ground, brandish meaningless early exit poll numbers as swords, and never take so much as a fleeting glance at the actual returns. Look at the sheer nonsense posted here yesterday. In 2000, there were roughly 105 million votes cast. This year, that figure rose to over 123 million. That's a difference of 15%. Not everyone who voted last time voted again. Let's assume that between five and ten percent of last election's voters stayed home this year--split the difference and say 8 million voters. Since we have 18 million more votes than in 2000, and 8 million voters didn't show up this time, we need to account for 26 million new voters. If Kerry got 60% of them, he beat Bush by 5.2 million votes among this group. Add that to his 500,000 vote lead from 2000 and it turns out he won by almost SIX MILLION votes. Nah, that isn't ridiculous. Of course, it requires every single national survey to be wrong by more than its margin-of-error, but so what?

It's a smoking gun, all right. It proves conclusively that objectivity is a dead concept on the left.
 
"It's a smoking gun, all right. It proves conclusively that objectivity is a dead concept on the left."

That probably explains why none of your successive posts answer any of the points raised by those who are foolish enough to respond to you here. Rather, you just fling a new round of mud.

So, for the last time, I'll try to take you by the hand, and point out the obvious: it doesn't matter a damn who's the governor of New Mexico. Vote fraud --if it's occurring -- would not necessarily be happening with the acquiescenceor participation of high state officials (and couldn't be stopped by them, if they happened to be of the wrong party, the one which isn't cheating).

And who cares if a Democrat happens to be in the room when the votes are "counted"? Private company, all of them closely allied with the Republican party, and some run by felons, are recording and counting most of the votes, and their proprietary software is deemed to be a trade secret. Even if they are free of malfeasance themselves -- and the story of Chuck Hagel still needs some explaining -- their systems can be easily hacked. Forgive me for saying so, but Republican dirty tricks have a long history; Democrats are amateurs by comparsion. Democrats simply don't have the same evangelical devotion to serving the interests of big money.

Further, we don't have to look far for clear evidence of the Republican "fix" at high levels. Is it your position that Katherine Harris, for example, presided over the 2000 Florida count with impartiality? Did you know that the NAACP sought -- and achieved -- legal relief (imaginary relief, alas) for the abuses of 2000? That Florida was once again going to use a voter exclusion list which wrongly disqualfied tens of thousands of black voters, and ebandoned it only when forced to reveal that list by the courts?

The question isn't, how could vote fraud occur if a Democrat is governor, or an incompetent election official calls him or herself a Democrat (ever heard of Teresa La Pore?), but whether the vote is fair and free, whether it's counted in an impartial manner, and whether the voter's intention is respected even in the case of human or machine error.

You can cite as many obfuscatory figures as you want. There are so many unanswered questions and the procedures are so shoddy and subject to manipulation, that any reasonable person could question the result. Add that to the exit poll results, and something stinks. I can assure you, this Republican administration would not certify this result in another country (unless, of course, their candidate won).
 
Well, Anonymous, you appear to have fallen into a fairly obvious trap. If you substitute "Florida" for "New Mexico" you will perhaps begin to grasp what we conservatives have been saying for the past four years. Jeb Bush and Katharine Harris had absolutely no involvement with the counting of ballots. We know that Democrats in Palm Beach County engaged in fraud because of the anomalies (there's that word again). Bush ran ahead of Bill McCollum, the Republican senatorial candidate who lost by 300,000 votes, in every county except Palm Beach. There, Bush received 4,000 votes fewer than McColum; he also got fewer votes than the total of Republican congressional candidates running in the county. By the strangest coincidence, the overvote rate in Palm Beach was ten times higher than in the rest of the state. Two cops reported that they observed Democrat election workers in vehicles used for transportation to central tabulating centers opening bags and handling ballots. See Stealing Elections for details. Typically, you allege--with no evidence whatever--that Republicans practice fraud. That's a great game: the Dems actually do it and Republicans get accused of it.

I understand that my "obfuscatory numbers" are terribly inconvenient for you. As they are accurate, they would naturally pose insurmountable problems for any fantasist.

I just discovered that rightwing websites are ablaze with conspiracy theories involving poor Warren Mitofsky. It seems that he was the polling director at CBS for 23 years. Imagine that--some guy works with Rather and Co. for a mere quarter-century and everyone assumes that he's out to get George Bush. I'm confident that Mitofsky's reasons for refusing to allow anyone to look at his complete exit poll tables are perfectly honest. Someday, real soon, some professional Democrat somewhere will dare to speak the dreaded words, "exit polls." Tell a Kerry higher-up that you want a congressional investigation into those early results, and you can be very certain that he'll tell you it's time for all of us to move on. The idea that someone who worked at CBS would leak information to the Democrats is just too, too awful to contemplate.

I finally read Baiman's paper (trouble with PDF files). What can I say? His math is correct. The exit polls were wrong. That national total for Kerry of 50.8% includes respondents from those early polls that showed Kerry up by twenty in Pennsylvania, seventeen in New Hampshire, ten in Minnesota--we're all tired of hearing me repeat this. Garbage in, garbage out. You start with a result that is wrong, and the conclusions you extrapolate will be wrong. If I tell you that the exit poll shows Kerry leading in Pennsylvania 60-40 and he ends up winning 51-49, yes, it's a bazillion to one that one of those results is very wrong. If all the pre-election surveys echo the actual result, you should start to suspect the exit poll. To be more precise, a reasonable person understands that the exit poll cannot be correct. You, on the other hand, would fabricate a dozen preposterous rationales for doubting the raw vote.
 
Hey pomeroo! Seems the other anonymous one is kicking your butt! lol If, as you suggest, that there are voting anomalies in other states or areas favoring Democrats, then what you are agreeing to is that the November 2nd election was not up to snuff anywhere! It was not transparent, not accurate, and not legitimate. In other words, you are defeating your own cause by helping us contest the election for a new one!

And that's just fine...we'll be happy to do a new election under the seven steps I outlined for a dual tabulation paper ballot system everywhere! Let's do it! In fact, we demand it! Seems you have no answer, other than to legitimize the complaints the Democrats have already made! Also, your Republican Party is under a standing court order to stop practices that suppress black votes. Not the Democrats...the Republicans have already been proven in Court to suppress black votes and there is a court order to prove it!
 
pomeroo and everyone, I refer you to: Check out update:

http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2005/1065

Evidence is growing for investigation! Sorry pomeroo, cry all you want, but the ship is sinking!
 
I promised myself I wouldn't do this again, but what the hell, it's only a waste of breath.

"Jeb Bush and Katharine Harris had absolutely no involvement with the counting of ballots. "

True enough. They just engineered the exclusion of tens of thousands of black voters in 2000. Who needs to count, when one party's voters are excluded from the start? I refer you to Greg Palast, and the successful NAACP lawsuit, if you want the details on how it was done.

"I understand that my "obfuscatory numbers" are terribly inconvenient for you. As they are accurate, they would naturally pose insurmountable problems for any fantasist."

The trouble with your numbers is, you provide no basis or support for them, and the analysis is so tortured, it's not clear you yourself know what you're arguing.

If you want to examine some really troubling numbers, try these: Democrats are at least half the country, but they can no longer seem to win a national election (even when they clearly win the popular vote). At the state level, Democrats can be ahead in polls by 8-15 polls (the pre-election polls in which you have so much faith), and then lose by 5-6 points (Max Cleland, Walter Mondale, etc.). In the case of Chuck Hagle, the man overcame enormous odds not once, but twice. One can only imagine the outcry if Republicans were suffering similar setbacks at the hands of Democrats.
 
I promised myself I wouldn't do this again, but what the hell, it's only a waste of breath.

"Jeb Bush and Katharine Harris had absolutely no involvement with the counting of ballots. "

True enough. They just engineered the exclusion of tens of thousands of black voters in 2000. Who needs to stuff the ballot box, when one party's voters are excluded from the start? I refer you to Greg Palast, and the successful NAACP lawsuit, if you want the details on how it was done.

"I understand that my "obfuscatory numbers" are terribly inconvenient for you. As they are accurate, they would naturally pose insurmountable problems for any fantasist."

If you want to examine some really troubling numbers, try these: Democrats are at least half the country, but they can no longer seem to win a national election, even when more than half the country dislikes the incumbent and believes we're going in the wrong direction (and even when more than half the country votes for the Democrat, per 2000). At the state level, Democrats can be ahead in polls by 8-15 points (according to the pre-election polls in which you have so much faith), and then lose by 5-6 points (Max Cleland, Walter Mondale, etc.). In the case of Chuck Hagel, the man overcame enormous odds not once, but twice. One can imagine the outcry if Republicans were suffering similar setbacks at the hands of Democrats -- and electronic voting machines controlled by well-connected Democratic companies.

"I finally read Baiman's paper (trouble with PDF files). What can I say? His math is correct. The exit polls were wrong. "

You missed the point of Baiman's paper. His methodology makes allowances for errors in exit polls. His argument -- lost on you -- is that such large discrepancies, in so many states, could not have happened without human intervention. Your party, as I've noted before, has a lot of faith in exit polling. Witness Ukraine. Do we really think exit polling in so much worse here, than there?

Now, if you want to argue that exit polls were intentionally corrupted, thereby accounting for the statistically impossible discrepancy, you're going to have to provide some proof. Simply mouthing off won't do it.

But what you're really arguing is, GWB won, so the exit polls must have been wrong. A bit circular, no?
 
Consider the progress, pommero, you've made in this thread. You began by insisting that "sane" people would only consult adjusted exit polls, in which GWB was the winner -- which is rather like saying you can prove GWB won the election because GWB won the election.

When that position proved untenable, you became an instant expert in the polls only insane Democrats would look at, and the ones your Republican colleagues (or is it employers?) cited in Ukraine (i.e., the real exit polls, though the source and accuracy of your data remains unclear to me).

Add that sudden and remarkable switcheroo to a host of false and/or fallacious arguments you've thrown up on each successive post, and instantly abandoned when they proved indefensible, as well as a number of unproven charges no one could easily hope to refute (am I really supposed to know what an unnamed police officer saw in Palm Beach, according to you?), and I come to the conclusion that you're probably not an amateur, and quite likely more than one person.

Granted, there's nothing more stultifying than a room full of people who agree with each other, and require no proof of their assertions (Democrats can be quite as bad as Republicans in that respect), but the peculiar character of your posts, and the apparent range of falsehood they command, suggests more than yet another deluded Republican from the "heartland", one of those "normal Americans" your party so loves to deceive and fleece.

In a word, give my regards to Ed Gillespie and Tom Delay. If they can pay me enough, I might even consider changing sides and becoming a troll like you. Shall I send you a resume?
 
Joe- I hope everything is ok with you...I check in with your site daily and I notice we haven't heard from you since Saturday! WE MISS YOU! Hope this finds you well!
 
I think we can safely conclude that Anonymous (at least one of them) is terribly confused. He insists that I keep retreating from indefensible positions. Every position I have taken here has been shown to be correct:
1) There isn't a shred of evidence for Republican vote fraud in any state.
2) Kerry's astonishing leads in the early exit polls have not been satisfactorily explained.
3) Baiman's contention that exit polls are infallible is demonstrable nonsense. That is, at any rate, what Warren Mitofsky (who merely created exit polls) says. The exits skewed Democratic by 3 points in 1992; by somewhat less in each of the last three elections.

I notice a new fantasy emerging: Democrats have huge leads in state polls and somehow manage to lose. Amazing--how do those Republicans do it? Of course, Max Cleland's lead in the final Georgia polls had dwindled to low single digits and many pundits were predicting that he would lose. Mondale's initial surge evaporated in the wake (is that a pun?) of the Wellstone Memorial/ Beer Bash. Coleman's strong debate performance had turned that race into a toss-up by Election Day.

I'm still waiting for someone to explain how increased turnout suggests vote suppression. An investigation of Florida 2000 by the Civil Rights Commission concluded that the allegations of Rev. Shakedown & Co. were unfounded.
 
Great article.
 
There is hope!:

PRESS! PRESS! PRESS! PRESS! PRESS! PRESS! PRESS!

April 7, 2005

CONTACT INFO:

HANK RAMEY,
Major Organizer
Recall Arnold Movement
Owner, Grassroots-CA-OH-FL
21845 Grand Terrace Rd., #23
Grand Terrace, CA., 92313
TEL.: (909) 872-1826
bighank98@yahoo.com
doeramey@sbcglobal.net
recallarnold@sbcglobal.net
http://www.angelfire.com/biz/hankramey/page4.htm
recallarnold.blogspot.com

Dot, Moderator
Grassroots-CA-OH-FL
wwwdothello@yahoo.com

GRAND TERRACE, Calif.-California liberal progressive activists are announcing an initiative drive to put the California Honest Voting Act of 2005 Initiative on the Ballot. They will request California Attorney General Bill Lockyer’s Office for a “Title and Summary” for their Initiative.

Hank Ramey, whose prior foray in any initiative was a failed Initiative in 1990 in Bell Gardens, regarding an Amendment to the General Plan is planning with a message board and others into circulating the Honest Voting Act for more likely the June 2006 Ballot.

“We don’t think that we would get on this November’s Ballot”, Ramey said, “even if any of Arnold’s ((Schwarzenegger) Initiatives did qualify for the November Ballot. We are OPPOSED to all of Arnold’s Initiatives, because he favors hospitals, businesses, far-right educational activists. We believe at Grassroots-CA-OH-FL (standing for Grassroots-California-Ohio-Florida) that the Democrats and Greens should recall Arnold, and send a message to the minority Republican Party that we want progressive changes in California Government, and we will not have a Governor who curries with the REAL special interests. Hell, we didn’t like Gov. Gray Davis for being the Dialing for Dollars Governor!”

The Honest Voting Act of 2005 would ban any new uses of voting machines, but would require Counties with existing machines to require a paper trial on the existing machines. Those Counties would also require poll workers to randomly count at least 10% of the ballots at least four times during election day.

Most of the reforms were hashed out in the Grassroots-CA-OH-FL Yahoogroup, as well as in the CASE_OH Yahoogroup. “We are trying to avoid the problems Ohio and Florida had in 2000 and 2004,” Ramey said, “If California adopts this Initiative, other States would follow. We are also trying to Initiative campaigns started with similar provisions in Ohio and Florida.”

In Ohio, an initial petition with 100 signatures is needed before Grassroots-CA-OH-FL could start with similar initiative in Ohio. In Florida, they need proponents, which is hard to come by.

“Given the urge by Republicans to force us to have electronic voting by fiat,” Ramey said, “we would need to educate voters to get voting reform initiatives in all States where the initiative process is available. Where it’s not available, we will try to get States like Connecticut, Illinois, Hawaii, and Oklahoma to vote for a Constitutional Convention, even though Oklahoma has an initiative process.”

As to Florida, “in light of the Terri Schiavo case,” Ramey explained, “the attempted gutting of the Minimum Wage Initiative, and the wholesale gutting of the Initiative Process, Florida also needs a Constitutional Convention yesterday.”

The supporters of the Honest Voting Act of 2005 would need to request the “Title and Summary”, which goes on top of each of their Petitions. Ramey and his Group would need over 600,000 signatures to get it on the June 2006 Ballot. After the group receives the “Title and Summary” in a couple of months, Ramey and the group would have up to five months to get all the necessary signatures.

ADDENDUM

THE HONEST VOTING ACT OF 2005.

First-Section 4 of Article II of the Constitution of California is amended as follows:

CALIFORNIA CONSTITUTION
ARTICLE II, SECTION 4

SEC. 4. (a) This Section shall be named “The Honest Voting Act of 2005”.

(b) Neither the State of California nor any County shall be allowed to purchase, operate, and authorize the use of any voting in any Federal, State, County, City, or other election by electronic means, but the Legislature shall authorize the use of paper ballots, as of the effective date the amendment of this Section is adopted by the voters. The People find and declare that all computerized touchscreen voting machines can break down, they are very expensive, and they are not easily distributed in an equal manner to all voters. This does not affect Counties that have already purchased, operate, and authorize any voting by electronic machines, but use of those machines shall be subject to subdivisions (c) through (e).

(c) In Counties that already purchased, operate, and authorize any voting by electronic machines, each vote from each of those machines shall contain a receipt of each vote made by the voter.

(d) On election day, there shall be a Precinct Board containing five Members who are in the Registrar of Voter Service defined in Subdivision (i). At least four times a day, a different Member shall count and tally at least 10 percent of the receipts from the electronic machines, but shall not disclose the results of each tally until the receipts and tallies are turned over to the Office of the Registrar of Voters.

(e) The software source code of each electronic machine shall be a public record, and shall not be exempted under Government Code Section 6254 or any other law or statute.

(f) The Legislature shall prohibit improper practices that affect elections and shall provide for the disqualification of electors while mentally incompetent or imprisoned.

(g) All persons shall be allowed to register or re-register to vote up to election day.

(h) Nothing shall prevent the voter from voting by mail, if only the voter or a relative not beyond the third degree of relationships so mails his or her vote to the Registrar of Voters of the County.

(i) All votes shall be hand-counted by registered voters who appointed in the same manner as petit jurors under the supervision of the Registrar of Voters. The master rolls shall be randomly selected from the voter registration rolls, driver's license records, and real estate records for each County. Those called for an election shall be selected in order from a Registrar of Voters service list on paper, and filed by January 1 of the year of selection. Requests for excuses shall be in writing, which would be for (a) illness or injury, (b) financial hardship, (c) on a previously scheduled vacation, and/or (d) a temporary or permanent disability; all to the extent the previous reasons would interfere with Registrar of Voters service. Excused absences shall be granted in writing, stating the name, the excuse, and when was the excuse granted. No employer can terminate for the required performance in doing Registrar of Voters service. No counting of the votes shall be given to persons not selected for Registrar of Voters service or to private corporations.

(j) Each County shall be divided up into precincts of no more than 400 voters each.

(k) No voter shall be mislead by any election official, any person engaged in Registrar of Voters service, any member of the precinct board, any member(s) of any political party, or any supporter or opponent of any candidate or any initiative or referendum as to when
and/or where he or she can vote, who could vote, and any qualifications as to voting or voter registration.

(l) No voter shall be denied his or her right to vote on the basis of race, gender, orientation, religion, or previous condition of servitude or incarceration.

(m) Any voter who has previously voted at a previous address, but has moved from a prior address shall be entitled to register to vote and vote at the new precinct. All votes from voters that have moved before election day who refuse to vote at the new precinct will not have their vote counted, unless a provisional ballot is required to be given to the voter to be cast.

(n) Only the members of the precinct board or if none, the chief election officer of the County, may disqualify a voter before he or she may cast a vote, and only then, if required by law, may allow the voter to vote by provisional ballot.

(o) The voter shall not be prevented by way of arrest from voting, nor shall any peace officer shall prevent the voter from going to his or her polling place unless there is a reasonable belief or suspicion that the voter will engage in any illegal activity.

(p) All Counties, and in municipal elections, all cities, shall provide for enough absentee ballots, provisional ballots, paper ballots, and all other election materials at each polling place, provided, that each polling place shall have in excess of 125% of their supplies. If there is a need for a County, city, or a Registrar of Voters needing assistance, other Counties, cities, and Registrar of Voters may assist the County, city, or Registrar of Voters so requesting.

(q) All polling places shall be opened at 7 o'clock ante meridian and shall close at 10 o'clock post meridian, and shall not allow any more voters after that time, unless the voters are already in line at the time of closing. In each polling place in any election, there shall be two precinct boards, one operating between 7 o'clock ante meridian and 2 o'clock post meridian, and the other shall operate between 2 and 10 o'clock post meridian. Persons serving on Registrar of Voters Service shall be divided among both precinct board shifts, and the third group shall be used after hours to hand-count the ballots.

(r) Any violation of this section shall be reviewed by mandamus, quo warranto, or by way of elections contest and the court of competent jurisdiction may declare that the person receiving more elected votes to be the winner, whether any measure is approved or rejected, or may require another election. If any of the provisions of this Section is violated, or the election results were obtained by way of fraud, the costs and attorney’s fees, including the costs of any recounts, shall be assessed to the County conducting the election where the provisions of this section was violated or where the fraud occurred. This section is expressly applied to all elections for Federal and statewide offices, and for Members of the Legislature. In any proceedings regarding violations of this section, any contestants or petitioners shall have a right to secure all voting records, and all discovery under the Code of Civil Procedure and California Rules of Court shall be permitted.
 
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Thursday, December 30, 2004

Exit polls and more

The exit poll. Jonathan Simon and Ron P. Baiman will no doubt come in for the usual ad hominem attacks -- after all, when the Republican propagandists can't go after the data, they always go after those who dared to compile it. Even so, let's do what we can to publicize their latest, updated analysis of the exit poll controversy.

Here's the summary they offer:

There is a substantial discrepancy -- well outside the margin of error and outcome-determinative -- between the national exit poll and the popular vote count.

The possible causes of the discrepancy would be random error, a skewed exit poll, or breakdown in the fairness of the voting process and accuracy of the vote count.

Analysis shows that the discrepancy cannot reasonably be accounted for by chance or random error.

Evidence does not support hypotheses that the discrepancy was produced by problems with the exit poll.

Widespread breakdown in the fairness of the voting process and accuracy of the vote count are the most likely explanations for the discrepancy.

In an accurate count of a free and fair election, the strong likelihood is that Kerry would have been the winner of the popular vote.
For the full report -- pdf-style, alas -- go here.

Will Byrd fly to the rescue? For reasons given yesterday, it may not be politically wise for John Kerry to challenge the Ohio electors. Two other names have been mooted: John Edwards and Robert Byrd.

Edwards, it is said, felt that the concession was premature. He will be out of the senate soon. However, he is nothing if not ambitious, and plunging headlong into a sea of national ridicule can do nothing for his goals.

But Byrd...ah, now that is an idea. He's an ornery old lion. He hates this administration. And he's reached the age at which a man speaks his mind and just does not give a shit what anyone has to say in reply.

In my eyes, Byrd is the best man for the job. Perhaps we should write him and encourage him to speak up in favor of fair elections?
Permalink
Comments:
The article by Simon and Baiman is a must read for anyone who still doubts the integrity of the exit poll results. The logic (backed up by expert analyses) is quite good.

P.S. I wrote to Byrd a few weeks ago asking him to not accept the Jan 6 Ohio Electoral College's vote. I also wrote to my blue state's Senator Sarbanes (D-MD). I believe any Senator's response will show exactly how much they care about the foundations of our democracy -- should be quite telling.
 
Excuse me, but why is anyone talking about John Edwards? Isn't the new Congress going to count the electors?

There is no good reason for Robert Byrd not to sign a challenge. If he signs then Rockefeller might sign, I don't know. One bad reason for Byrd not to sign would be to save Rockefeller from having to step forth. The person I'd really like to see sign is Jeffords.

What happens when the Bushist Congress overrides the objection I don't know. It's the sort of thing you do even though technically it is futile.
 
A couple of things:

-A staffer for Senator Byrd's office has confirmed that they are getting calls and messages in support of the challenge. His office # in Washington is :
202-224-3954. Additional #'s where one may leave a message are: 1-800-839-5276 & 1-877-762-8762. Messages really do matter, especially when there are a lot of them.

Senator Byrd has also requested copies of NYT, Washington Post or other nationally recognized news articles on the Ohio vote situation. Faxed copies of actual printed news stories are requested instead of web pages. The fax number is 304-343-7144.

Representatives of WV Common Cause, WV Citizen Action Group, West Virginians for HAVA (verified voting group), WV Mountain Party,WV Patriots for Peace are also lobbying this effort and signed a letter in support of a challenge.

- The Democratic Senators are going to caucus on Tuesday. This issue will undoubtably be on the agenda.

- Rep. Conyers has written an open letter to Senators asking them to openly debate this issue:
http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/123104W.shtml

Necessarily Anonymous but still hopeful
 
www.bradblog.com has a link to a website where you can send a letter (already written or create your own) to many senators, or write your own asking them to challenge the Ohio electors.
 
You regard as an ad hominem attack the reasonable observation that assuming what one wishes to prove is illogical. Again, leftist academics who rush out worthless and innumerate "studies" are attempting to drive a square peg into a round hole. You can quote all sorts of fantastic odds about the accuracy of exit polls without addressing the real question. The pre-election polls predicted the outcome with extreme accuracy. The final exit polls are all accurate. Early exit polls were wildly--in some cases, absurdly--skewed in favor of Kerry. What happened? Michael Barone suggested that Democratic tampering is the most likely explanation. If you disagree, you need to account for Kerry's 20-point lead in Pennsylvania and his 17-point lead in New Hampshire. Also, you must explain why uncontested Southern states were, for suspiciously long periods, "too close to call." You can chase your tails forever following this bogus exit poll spoor. Eventually, you will discover that early polls showing Kerry with gigantic leads in states that were really very close were simply wrong.
 
No, it is the outgoing Senate that accepts and counts the state electors. After the 2000 election theft and judicial coup it was a Senate headed up by outgoing VP Al Gore (the candidate who was robbed!) who heard the objections of house members, but which did not yield a single Senator to sign on.

Sad to say, the grounds for objection then could be said to be more clear to more people, being at least focused on a single state and a single issue, namely the halting of a recount of selected counties that had been granted by a state (FL) supreme court.

Now we have a situation where we need Senators (preferably more than one) who are one (or more) of the following:

1) outgoing senators (whether beaten or retiring) and either don't think this will hurt their future ambitions or who have no future political ambitions;

2) are so popular in their state that their constituents would accept them standing up for fair elections, fair voting processes and access, transparent and auditable voting systems, etc.

3) have a large segment of their core constituency who were actually disenfranchised in various ways during the Nov. 2 election and any recounts...
 
perhaps it's time for all these politicians to STOP saying "we don't expect a recount to change the outcome" and actually challenge the thieves by saying 'we think it will change the outcome and we better get to work making damned sure we have the person actually elected in the white house this time. we know that the florida recount took place quietly after 2000, and it showed gore was clearly the winner.'

are we going to have four more years with a "president" who has nothing left to lose by finishing off our democracy, the environment, and any semblance of alliance with other lands? if not, we had better get to work and be upfront about it. fuck 'under the radar,' let's bombard washington with the truth!
 
Sorry pomeroo, you're wrong. I know several WORLD reknowned statisticians. You're not one of them.
 
Sorry, Miss Pesistent, there is no such critter as a "world-renowned statistician." There are competent statisticians and incompetent ones--I work with the former group. Statistics involves the use of data. If you apply sound reasoning to your approach, the data will yield reasonable conclusions. If you start out trying to bend and shape the raw data to fit a preconceived conclusion, you waste your time and mislead anyone foolish enough to take you seriously. On this page, I have seen socialist economists described as eminent statisticians. Uh-uh. They are people with agendas: they have no interest whatever in discovering truth. Yes, I understand that lefties are terribly aggrieved that Bush won, but he did win. You can either accept that reality or marginalize yourself as the sort of crank who denies that America put men on the moon. You may hate America,, but the moon landings took place irrespective of your emotional need to pretend they didn't. Look at some of the things written on this site. There are cranks claiming that a recount of Florida showed Gore winning. No, the recounts by two different consortia of newsgathering organizations showed Bush winning. The point is, you can verify what I'm saying. It is really, really true that if the Florida Supreme Court's rampage through the state election laws had culminated in the granting of Gore's specific request, i.e., recounts in four selected Democratic counties, Bush would still have won. Don't take my word for it: check it out. If you want to pretend that early, manifestly rigged exit polls represent reality, you need to account for the glaring anomalies I have cited many times. Polls showing Kerry leading in Pennsylvania by 20 points, while Alabama is too close to call, are obviously rubbish. Not acknowledging something so incontestable suggests willful self-delsuion.
 
Amazing--I previewed my previous post and still managed to overlook the inverted letters in "delusional." Can I use New Year's Eve as an excuse?
 
Pomeroo, you say, "There are cranks claiming that a recount of Florida showed Gore winning. No, the recounts by two different consortia of newsgathering organizations showed Bush winning." and then you say that the current exit poll were "manifestly rigged" (also purchased by that newsgathering consortia). Yet you offer no statistical (or any other) evidence to support either claim, you simply are picking and choosing to suit your own emotional needs - as you would say. One is rigged, one is not? Your defense mechanism is called, "projection." I, on the other hand, am relying on statistical evidence in support of the theory that the most likely source of error is the reported final vote counts and not the exit polls. You will never convince me otherwise. Never. My defense mechanism is called, "intellectualization." I think we all woke up on Nov 3 asking, "Who are these people?!" I surmise they don't exist. I can tell that either you didn't understand the Simon/Baiman logic and analysis or you simply didn't read it. And why do you try to bully and denegrate people's thinking? We are a free thinking people and will continue to be regardless of whether Bush successfully steals another election.
 
Well, Pomeroo, if the recounts by two different consortia of newsgathering organizations showed Bush winning, then it must be true. One thing we all count on here is the reliability and integrity of the news corps in this country. Wow, thanks for clearing that up.
 
I'm afraid that Anonymous is playing a very weak hand in claiming that two consortia of newsgathering organizations might cover up skullduggery by George Bush. Surely it counts for something that the members of these consortia rabidly opposed Bush and eagerly sought his defeat. I'm talking about the New York Times and the Washington Post here, for goodness sake.

The problems with the exit polls now extend over two presidential elections. In 2000, key states Gore won by small margins (Michigan and Pennsylvania) were called for him instantly. Strong Bush states such as North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia were "too close to call" for unconscionably long periods (up to an hour). Now, go ahead and explain it. In his book Waiter, One Order of Crow!, Jeff Greenfield talks rather unconvincingly about corrupted VNS data. Why was that data perfectly accurate for predicting Gore states, but flawed for Bush states? What's clear was the effect of the early projections: it suggested that a massive Gore trend was sweeping the nation. In hindsight, we know that no such trend existed and Bush won those "close" states by large margins. This year, Kerry was showing impossibly large leads in very close states. Everyone who has examined the issue carefully has concluded that something was wrong. If you believe that Kerry really was winning winning by 20 points in Pennsylvania, or that Alabama was too close to call, then you're just being frivolous. Michael Barone has stated that Democrat tampering is the most plausible explanation of early exit numbers that simply don't correlate with reality--with either the pre-election surveys or the actual vote. You cling to the fantasy that everything but the rigged exit polls should be discarded. Bush won Ohio by two points; the aggregate of state surveys showed him winning by two points; the final exits show him winning by two points. Do you understand that the Kerry campaign did post-election polling that confirmed the result? Do you also understand that if their polling showed that most Ohio voters were actually claiming to have voted for Kerry, all hell would break loose? The Kerry campaign spent hundreds of millions of dollars: if they had something to run with, I suspect they might use it.
 
I hadn't realized this fellow pommero (sp?) has polluted virtually every thread on the board.

"There are cranks claiming that a recount of Florida showed Gore winning. No, the recounts by two different consortia of newsgathering organizations showed Bush winning."

Do I really have to point out the obvious, and what was widely reported at the time, though you often had to read deep into the story to get it?

Under certain very limited scenarios, the consortia have Bush winning -- but only when large numbers of votes go counted.

When *all* votes are counted (undervotes and overvotes) Gore easily wins, and the Florida officials who would have overseen the recount have said undervotes and overvotes *would* have been examined and counted -- if the recount hadn't been derailed by Antonin Scalia.

In another words, more people voted for Gore than Bush in 2000, in Florida -- a fact about which there is absolutely no controversy. The only way to give Bush more votes is to exclude wrongly excluded ballots, simply because they were wrongfully excluded the first time around.

Elections, if you didn't know, are about counting all the votes. If you want to win on technicalities (and that's putting it kindly, after what went on in Florida), you evidently don't believe in democracy.
 
Ok Fight On! It's time to pivot and focus attention on NEP. Warren Mitofsky , who is he? Who hired him? Why was the old system so faulty? Or was it?
What are the results of the exit pools offcially? Why was Kerry ahead then lost? Were women oversampled? I have heard that argument. It's seems that may not be the case. Why are the polls so far off? Anybody can scream bloody murder about polls but the fact is there was a huge gap. Lot's of smart people can see it. This can't be shouted down! NEP needs to explain and get their numbers straight. Please keep this idea going.
 
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Wednesday, December 29, 2004

Another section on elections (and more)

I'm grateful for the response on my email conundrum (although I remain allergic to Macs -- sorry!). I do wish that all virus-writers had but one neck, so I could wring it.

By the way, have any conspiracy theorists mooted the idea that Symantic and allied companies are the real creators of the many viral attacks in the wild? Cui bono, and all that...

Feeneygate. Each day, this drama becomes more interesting. YEI, the former employer of Clinton Curtis (the guy in Florida who claims Tom Feeney asked the company to create a prototype vote-rigging software) is now also making serious lawsuit noises against the Seminole Chronicle, the Florida paper which gave coverage to Curtis' story. According to Brad Friedman, the letter from YEI's attorneys bears striking similarities of language to the letter written by Feeney's representatives.

Not that they're working together, or anything like that...

The lawyers also allege "at least one of Mr. Curtis’s former employers has stated under oath that Mr. Curtis is a pathological liar." Odd that this former employer goes unnamed. Someone at YEI, perhaps?

To my nostrils, these legal missives carry the stench of the bluff.

Olbermann. In a private email, a reader made a good case in defense of Keith Olbermann's recent work. Unfortunately, I was asked to keep the letter private. Suffice it to say, I now somewhat regret my harsh stance of yesterday. Somewhat.

The Ohio lawsuit. Remember the affidavits testifying to highly-suspicious behavior on the part of that Triad employee? Chief Justice Moyer tossed 'em out today, even though the events in question were (to a large degree) verified.

The reasons for this dismissal were largely technical. Moyer claims that the affidavit by Sherole Eaton relies on hearsay. (I would question this; I thought Eaton was careful to specify what she witnessed personally.) He also argued that her affidavit lacks a statement from the notary that he or she personally witnessed Eaton's signature. Moreover, the Chief Justice makes clear that even if the affidavit were unassailable, it remains "unclear" that the Triad employee engaged in ballot tampering.

Much the same objection is lodged against the deposition of Catherine Buchanan. First, we get technical objections: "Neither the exhibit nor the contestors' motion, however, specifies who Buchanan is, where she works..." Then we get to the meat of the matter:

Buchanan testifies that an employee was going to reprogram a machine. Even assuming the specified machine was an electronic voting machine that was used in the presidential election, however, there is no evidence in the deposition excerpt concerning how this would necessarily affect the recount -- or more important -- this election-contest case.
Dig it: It's not enough for a tech to get access to a voting machine under legally dubious circumstances. It's not enough for him to reprogram a machine that should not be reprogrammed (an activity some churls might consider downright illegal). It's not enough for him to utter those incriminating remarks about a "cheat sheet," which surely speak to the integrity of the recount process.

No, Moyer won't allow evidence in unless the Triad guy had announced in plain language: "Hi, everyone! I'm here to help George W. Bush cheat his way to victory in the recount!"

And even if Eaton had heard the guy say those words, the judge would still toss out her affidavit if the notary public failed to state specifically that he or she saw her sign the damn piece of paper.

The Chief Justice also sees no particular need for emergency relief to preserve evidence in Ohio despite the fact that "Tabulator test deck reports were discarded after the election."

The case is still ongoing -- but will the evidence remain intact? Or will we continue to read about those pesky accidents?

Open letter to John Kerry. Bob Fertik has just written an open letter to Kerry, asking the Massachusetts senator to challenge Ohio's electors on January 6. As you know, I have long been a Kerry supporter. Yet I remain of two minds as to whether he should lead the fight on January 6. Fertik makes some points worth repeating here:

But Monday night, your attorney Dan Hoffheimer told Keith Olbermann your investigation is over:

"There are many conspiracy theorists opining these days. There are many allegations of fraud. But this presidential election is over. The Bush-Cheney ticket has won. The Kerry-Edwards campaign has found no conspiracy and no fraud in Ohio, though there have been many irregularities that cry out to be fixed for future elections. Senator Kerry and we in Ohio intend to fix them. When all of the problems in Ohio are added together, however bad they are, they do not add up to a victory for Kerry-Edwards. Senator Kerry's fully-informed and extremely careful assessment the day after the election and before he conceded remains accurate today, notwithstanding all the details we have since learned."

I beg to differ with Dan Hoffheimer. Let me address two issues:

1) When do "many irregularities" (Hoffheimer's own phrase) rise to the level of "fraud" and ultimately "conspiracy"?

2) How much fraud would it take to "add up to a victory for Kerry-Edwards"?

1) When do "many irregularities" (Hoffheimer's own phrase) rise to the level of "fraud" and ultimately "conspiracy"?

"Irregularities" happen by accident or neglect. "Fraud" happens by design, when someone intends to interfere with a free and fair election. "Conspiracy" happens by coordination among those intending to commit "fraud."

The first challenge is proving the "many irregularities" were not accidental, but were intentional "fraud."
Later, we read:

Now what about Ohio in 2004?

A large group of detectives are painstakingly examining evidence and interviewing witnesses. As in all difficult criminal investigations, key discoveries are being made in fits and starts, and key questions are being highlighted. I have documented all of the key discoveries on one page: http://democrats.com/ohio

Have we found the "smoking gun"? Not yet. But we have made many important discoveries that suggest the "many irregularities" were outright "fraud." And we are close to uncovering a "conspiracy," which seems ever more likely because of Secretary of State Ken Blackwell's fierce effort to block any investigation whatsoever.

The Republican effort to steal Ohio's electors began long before Election Day, and continues to this very moment.
Later still:

On October 13, thieves broke into Democratic headquarters in Toledo and stole computers with crucial data - while ignoring office cash. In 1972, a similar campaign break-in at the DNC headquarters at the Watergate Hotel in Washington DC - which President Richard Nixon brushed off as a "third rate burglary" - ultimately led his resignation when the conspiracy behind the break-in - and the conspiracy to cover it up - were fully exposed after a year of bi-partisan hearings.
Later still:

In the week before Election Day, Democrats received flyers telling them to vote on Wednesday. Cleveland Democrats were visited by canvassers who illegally offered to collect and deliver completed absentee ballots to the election office, and got phone calls incorrectly informing them that their polling place had changed. Lake County voters received a memo on bogus Board of Elections letterhead informing voters who registered through Democratic and NACCP drives that they could not vote. A 25-man Republican-backed "Texas Strike Force" in Columbus threatened ex-convicts not to vote.
Fertik goes on to detail many similar attempts at disenfranchisement. He then summarizes subsequent developments, familiar to all regular readers of this column:

As polls closed on Election Day, the National Election Pool's exit poll showed Kerry winning Ohio by 3.2%. Two polling experts, Steven Freeman and Ron Baiman, independently concluded the chances of the exit poll being so different from the "official" results are "impossible." Those polling experts - and Rep. John Conyers - asked the NEP to release the raw data, but they have adamantly refused.

On Election Night, officials in Warren County - which alone produced 35% of Bush's margin of "victory" - cited a bogus "homeland security" warning to prevent the media and the public from observing the vote count.

In Miami County, officials mysteriously added 19,000 votes to their original tally. Several precincts reported nearly 100% turnout; a recent canvass by the Free Press found many voters did not actually vote.

A comparison of the Presidential race with the Ohio Supreme Court race found C. Ellen Connally, a black woman from northeastern Ohio, did far better than John Kerry in southwestern Ohio suburbs. This unlikely result is a key element of the Green/Libertarian contest - and possible evidence of "vote-flipping" software in the voting machines or tabulating systems.

Rep. John Conyers and other dedicated Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee have held several hearings in Washington DC and in Ohio. They have examined dozens of fraud allegations and sought answers to 36 specific questions from Ken Blackwell. Blackwell replied with utter contempt. This lack of transparency and accountability alone is sufficient to justify a challenge to Ohio's electors on January 6.
Fertik then goes on to outline recount oddities:

By law, each county is required to chose precincts (totaling 3% of the vote) at random for the recount. But in 86 of 88 counties, officials chose the precincts in advance, giving tabulating vendors the opportunity to rig the recount.

Recount observers were prohibited from examining the 92,672 "spoiled" ballots (undervotes and overvotes) that were rejected by vote-counting machines. As the Florida recount proved, many of these "spoiled" ballots were in fact "valid" ballots cast on defective machines in poor precincts, and the failure to count them most likely hurt John Kerry, as Dr. Richard Hayes Phillips has documented.

Recount observers were mostly prohibited from inspecting sign-in books to compare the number of votes cast with the number counted (see Miami County above). On November 15, in violation of Ohio's open public records laws, Blackwell ordered all 88 Boards of Election to prohibit any public inspection of poll books until after certification. When the ban was lifted in Trumbull County, Dr. Werner Lange found 580 absentee votes for which there were no absentee voters identified in the poll books - a major fraud. If extrapolated state-wide, there could be 62,513 fraudulent absentees. In Perry County, the number of voters exceeded the number of people who signed the books in at least 11 of 46 precincts.
There is much more, of course. Much of the argument depends on exit polls, and the Ukrainian comparison.

I agree with Fertik's points; we all must salute his superb work. But one factor troubles me: Obviously, the Republican party should suffer politically from the outrages listed above. But they will suffer nothing, for the mainstream media will not repeat the list of charges given above, even if Kerry proclaims himself an aggrieved party.

If Kerry challenges the electors, Kerry -- not Bush -- will suffer politically.

On the other hand: If Kerry does not challenge the electors, he will suffer politically within his party. The Democratic faithful -- which is to say, the many small contributors -- will view John Kerry as someone who would not stand up for himself.

However he stands, he stands damned.

What can change the situation? A political miracle. We need a striking new piece of evidence. It need not be conclusive, but it must grab attention. And we need this evidence within a week.
Permalink
Comments:
Gee, I wonder if the fact that Chief Justice Moyer is listed on the Ohio GOP website:
http://www.ohiogop.org/ContactUs/CountyCandidatesLookup.aspx
has anything to do with his decision today? Or am I being overly suspicious?
 
Kerry closes in on Bush in Ohio. Another 300 votes closer.

Over 117,000 to go
 
Well, wasn't Moyer was also named in Cliff Arnebeck's original lawsuit as having been the beneficiary of vote fraud?
 
.
.
.

Lynn:

Only 3% of the ballots recounted so far. 97% to go.

.
.
.
 
Joe,

Your virus conspiracy theory has been discussed on the Internet for years. The fact is that all A-V Software Companyies post more pattern files for updating than there are viruses released in the wild. Most of the vulnerabilities in MS stuff are discovered by such firms and researchers.

There is no evidence that any virus has been inserted in the web by such companies.

My answer is that I don't use any A-V Application. I just practice safe computing. Which is about as much fun as safe sex, but it almost always works.

Jerry
 
Ha, Jerry!

Actually, JC, I HAVE entertained that little suspicion

"By the way, have any conspiracy theorists mooted the idea that Symantic[sic] and allied companies are the real creators of the many viral attacks in the wild? Cui bono, and all that..." ,

but I've decided that it isn't an URGENT conspiracy theory. We have more important matters on our plates, we C theorists. I'm certain that you agree.
 
Oh...

And don't forget: there IS one Senator who can stand up without devastating political repercussions, a Senator who is supposedly "out of the running" - John Edwards.

He didn't like the "concession" and he isn't out of the Senate yet. Let's see what happens.
 
The fraudulent government situation gets bad nonlinearly, by which I mean the effect is greater than the accumulation of individual wrongs. There is, perhaps, a little window here where some huge, smoking cannon makes the Bushist Party pay some sort of price. That cannon probably will not exist. Then what? Once the Bushists can steal any election they want, it will not matter to them if they are unpopular, because no one can vote them out.

You cannot regain by election what you lost by election, unsuspecting, by voting for Bushists even at the state and local levels. You have lost your right to vote.

I don't think Kerry should be the first senator to object to the electors, but if no senator does it then that means they do not trust their constituents to back them up. I wonder how they got that way, hmm? Maybe it's got something to do with the swift condemnation that even grass roots Democrats heap upon each other and their politicians, blaming each other for things that weren't the fault of any Democrat. They were the fault of subversives who hate our freedom. When the Bushists take over for good, if it happens, it will not be Kerry's fault. But if no senator gives his or her signature, it will be a dark day.

Then the question becomes: will the Dominionists overcome what resistance remains within the Bushists? Will the American Inquisition become a fact?

It sounds dramatic, but four years ago I considered it dramatic to suggest that an American government could be this much worse than under Reagan or Nixon.
 
The sad fact is that we don't need a striking new piece of evidence as much as we need the mainstream media's focus on said piece of evidence. Colin's lies at the United Nations were debunked right away...but it wasn't until the Media grabbed hold of the story because of Bush's trip to Africa. Perhaps if Dubya goes to the Ukraine...or Ohio...something will take hold.

The political miracle we need is one fucking senator to do the right thing in a week. But that miracle will do more for the Democratic Party than it will for anything else. One Democrat needs to stand up and say, "Enough is enough!" One Democrat has to realize that in order to save the party he might have to throw himself on a grenade. One Democrat has to recognize that african american voters won't bother anymore since they're votes are being ignored. One Democrat has to see that the greatest danger for the party would be to let this slide. The truth will come out someday. It always does.

Keep firing the cannons!
 
It's going to be quite difficult to produce a "smoking gun" considering that the left fabricated this vote fraud nonsense out of whole cloth. Remember, none of this is true; you made up all of it. Before the election, you determined that that no victory by Bush would be accepted. When nothing suspicious occurred, you started fantasizing full-time. Miami County "found" 19,000 votes?! Let's see: in 2000, Bush got 26,037 to Gore's 15,584. This year, Bush won 34,005 to 17,611. Now, if we subtract 19,000 from the total, we get the highly implausible--make that, impossible--result of a lower turnout than four years ago. No, I'm afraid your allegation just doesn't pass the smell test.
The Cleveland Plain Dealer has explained that Jeff Ruppert, a lawyer for the Kerry campaign, was inside during the Warren County lock-out and he claimed that nothing unusual went on. Incidentally, none of the Democratic election officials WHO WERE ALSO INSIDE found anything to complain about. Warren is a Republican bastion, but Bush did not improve on his 2000 percentage.
Charges of vote suppression seem rather absurd in light of the huge increase in black turnout.
You know the mantra: the candidate expected to win by 2-3 points, in fact, won by 2-3 points--somehow, you find this strange.
 
Political miracles will have to swim in the media with tsunami coverage for the next week.

Shrub will be hanging his meat in the breeze at every opportunity to show that the Murkins are genrus christian folk. Free ink.
 
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Looking back, the "vote-flipping software" must have been used by liberal Democrats, who took over all three branches of government in the last election!
 
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Tuesday, December 28, 2004

Email impersonation?

I've been getting a lot of "bounce back" messages (undeliverable email) from sites to which I have not sent any mail. The sites include Michael Ruppert's, Rense, and something called "Right Turns." (I did once write to Rense, but that was quite a few months ago.) The returned messages are filled with code -- signifying either a virus or an image file. I am not sending this stuff out. If some creep is spoofing my email address, I'm not sure what to do.
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Comments:
Dear JC,

That's happened to me quite a bit. Almost always, the "returned message" is to someone I've never written to. I think it's a good way to get in under a server's virus detectors. Just right-click/delete before the message opens. And keep that software up-to-date!
 
Joe,
That is a very typical sign that someone who has your address in their addressbook has been infected by a worm.

Worms typicly operate by instructing the email program on the infected computer to send an email message (usually also infected) to every addressbook address and to use a random address from that list as the supposed sender. The theory being that people on the list may know each other and open the email.

The bounces may be because of a bad address, or the owner shutting down the address or a virus filter rejecting the mail.

The first thing to do is to make sure, your computers not the infected one.Most anti-virus program also check for worms and trojans. Or go to Gibson Research and run their free scans. http://grc.com/

I routinely do this once a week, just to be safe.
 
E-mails aren't always what they seem. I've gotten supposed messages from the administration of sites where I was the administration. I don't remember sending myself these messages. :)

If you keep getting this spam you might want to try a mail filtering program such as popfile (popfile.sourceforge.net).-- chemoelectric.org
 
Most likely, someone is using your email address as a phony sender -- the intent is to make spam look legitimate to the receiver. I had a herbal penile enlargement company using my email address(!), and I got dozens of returned emails. (Anybody can enter any email address in the sender field, it's got no legal force.)

What you need to do is examine the header of these returned emails, and try to find out who the sender is. If it's a commercial site, you can try to contact them, and ask them to cease and desist.

Otherwise, there probably isn't much you can do.
 
I don't allow for time to "examine" anything about suspect e-mail. I set my program to a time-lag of 10 to 15 seconds from highlight to open and delete EVERYTHING that doesn't look kosher. I might miss a small something once in a blue moon, but I also miss a lot of mischievous trouble.
 
Purchase a new Macintosh computer. Run the utilities program once a week. Macs rarely get any viruses. I mean, really rarely.
 
The problem he is having occurs because *someone else* has a virus. So his buying a Mac would be a complete waste of time!
 
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I have this problem too. I get messages bounced back from zxrt@mydomain.co.uk - obviously not a real address, but I have a redirect on all mail to mydoman so i get the bouncebacks.

I also get junk mail sent to info@mydomain.co.uk, admin@mydomain.co.uk and stuff like that.

I figure a worm has somehow stumbled on my domain in someone's bookmarks and is now not only spamming me as admin but also sending fake emails in my name.

I figure the problem exists on someone else's computer. I've tracked an IP# to a computer in Isreal, I've never even mailed anyone in Isreal so far as I know.

It's just one of those things. I'm just waiting for the person in Isreal to figure out they have the worm and deal with the problem. I doubt contacting their ISP will do much good, it's not as if ISPs can delete accounts of everyone who has a worm on their machine, else about half the internet population would disappear overnight.

I guess I should be flattered someone wanted to bookmark my site.
 
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Democracy, too, can drown (updated again)

Major corrections: Contrary to my statement yesterday, Tom Feeney has not filed a lawsuit against the Seminole Chronicle. He has, however, made serious noises about doing so. As always, I blame Satan for the error. (I also blame Old Scratch for the many typos in yesterday's post.)

Speaking of errors: The other paper in Feeney's home town, The Oviedo Voice, is putting together a response to the vote-theft coverage offered by the rival Seminole Chronicle. The Voice labeled Christopher Bollyn, a reporter for American Free Press, as a guest writer for the Brad Blog. I am quite sure that Brad Friedman writes all his own material. (I speak with the authority of one who, on a regular basis, cribs from that fine site -- with Brad's cheerful acquiescence.)

At the same time, the Voice saw fit to note that bloggers are "not always totally accurate." Which is true, of course. Even so, don't you love it when the traditional media -- you know, the advertising-supported venues which can afford editors, proofreaders, fact-checkers and so forth -- commit serious mistakes even as they score bloggers for sloppiness?

On a similar note, you'll be entertained by Brad's response to the latest anti-Curtis barrage by Keith Olbermann. Face it, folks: Olbermann's no longer on our side. That's not the problem. The problem is, he seems to have gone over to the other side.

Subpoenas for the Prez, Cheney, and Rove? The Nashua Advocate asserts that the lawyers involved with Cliff Arnebeck's suit in Ohio will attempt to depose the men who run our country, and will also seek a deposition from George W. Bush.

The Free Press also reports that Blackwell is doing his damnedest not to make any statement about the election under oath:

Richard Conglianese, Ohio Assistant Attorney General, is seeking a court order to protect Blackwell from testifying under oath about how the election was run. Blackwell, who administered Ohio's November 2 balloting, served as co-chair of the Bush-Cheney campaign.

James R. Dicks, Miami County Assistant Prosecuting Attorney, filed a motion to block a subpoena in his county while Conglianese filed to block subpoenas in ten key Ohio counties.
All of which has a "we've got 'em on the run" flavor." Alas, matters are not so simple. The Supreme Court of Ohio has moved to dismiss a large part of Arnebeck's case. That Court, dominated by Republicans, has also been asked to quash the subpoenas on Bush and his comrades.

For a fine analysis of the trouble the Ohio Supremes have just handed Cliff Arnebeck, go to georgia10's extremely helpful diary on Daily Kos. You'll have to scroll down to the update at the very end.

Arnebeck on the Ohio recount. I'm gratified to learn that Cliff Arnebeck has made much the same point I've tried to make. From the Guardian:

Cliff Arnebeck, an attorney representing the voters in the challenge, wasn't taking much stock in the recount effort. He questioned why there was no independent investigation into the accuracy of counting machines to determine whether the machines had been tampered with.

"You're allowing the original error to be repeated a second time, so it's not a meaningful recount," he said.
In this light, you'll want to pay close attention to the Triad story below. You'll also want to savor the following choice oddity...

This blogger's account from December 18 shows evidence that Coshocton County, Ohio, showed a wide variety of reported vote totals. At some point between Blackwell's official count on December 6 and an official county announcement of vote totals issued on December 10, the number of votes jumped from 16,242 to 17,300. The recount brought the number up to 17,329. Over a thousand new votes were "found."

But, but, but...

According to today's AP story on the recount, "Kerry gained 734 more votes in the recount, and Bush picked up 449." Math was never my strong suit, but I tote those numbers up to 1183 new votes found statewide.

Were the additional votes all found in Coshocton County? Is that likely? Is that possible?

To my eyes, these recount numbers look seriously questionable. I'll be happy to stand corrected if anyone out there has a counter-argument...

Let's all hang with the Kerrys: There is a movement to maintain a vigil outside John Kerry's house, in order to pressure him not to certify the electoral college vote on January 6. That would be a real "Profiles in Courage" moment, wouldn't it? If Kerry challenges the slate of electors from Ohio or Florida, he can kiss goodbye any hope of running in 2008. He would probably also lose his senate seat in the next election. On the other hand, if he doesn't speak out against vote theft, who will?

Vote hopping. Even the Washington Post acknowledges the problem: On electronic voting machines in Ohio (and elsewhere, if numerous anecdotal reports count for anything), the default vote went to Bush. The damned machines were programmed to operate in that fashion. Of course, a small sector of the electorate will not cast any vote in the presidential election. Did those votes automatically go to W?

You gotta love it. Dick Morris offers this observation on the election in the Ukraine:

In both previous elections, Yushchenko actually got upward of 60 percent of the vote, only to have the government falsify the results. Fortunately, he adopted a technique I had found useful when fighting against the PRI, the party that controlled Mexico's government for decades: using exit polls to establish the real winner, and so expose the government's count of the votes as rigged.
So there you have it: According to Dick, the exit polls demonstrate which candidate should be a "shoe-in" -- in every country except the United States.

By the way...is it true (as this story claims) that shadowy Republican pollster Frank Luntz helped run the exit polls in the Ukraine? For an eye-opening run-down on Luntz' startling career, check here.

More on Triad: A professional computer consultant offers a few choice words on Triad's "ever so helpful" system of offering modem access to tabulating machines:

Triad non-chalantly used this modem method to reset machines in preparation for the Ohio recount. No doubt that this is a practical short-cut: Makes sense; it saves gas, time. In fact, this is the same mechanism that I -- a computer consultant -- use to support 200 computers spread out across North Carolina.

It is now public record that Triad "legally hacked" into Van Wert County, Ohio on December 9th, and other counties on different dates in preparation for the recount...

The big picture: Everything is fine until you consider that passive modem-access means that these machines have been available for remote re-configuration for months if not years. We know this because nothing special was done (like Triad calling Van Wert’s elections board) to prepare for this recent remote connectivity.
The revelation that Triad used a modem to hack into the tabulators before the recount is verified by the Green Party Website. (You'll have to scroll down.)

It's been said before (many times, many ways), but there is no legit reason to attach a modem to any machine linked in any way to the counting of our votes.

Video proof. Want to see a strong video demonstration of the outrageous efforts to disenfranchise black voters in Ohio? Click here.

An anti-Conyers editorial in an the Port Clinton News Herald (an Ohio newspaper) includes this noteworthy bit of snarkiness:

If Conyers was so concerned about voting problems, where was he in 1998 when election officials in his hometown of Detroit took a disgraceful two weeks to count ballots due to lost poll books and miscounting of precinct totals?

Where was he in 2001 when the counting of absentee ballots in Detroit had to be halted in midstream by state officials after it was discovered that the city clerk was simply ignoring state requirements for the use of software that would eject ballots that couldn't be read by machine?

And where was he when a memo allegedly drafted by Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick's aides in 2002 claimed that Detroit's voter rolls were overstated by about 150,000 people -- a strong hint that something may be seriously amiss in the Detroit election process, threatening the value of the ballot for people who are genuinely qualified to vote?
"A disgraceful two weeks"? Jeez, we would have loved it if Ken Blackwell had finished the official Ohio vote count within two weeks. Would it be churlish of us to mention his election-night promise to complete the work within ten days? Instead, he dragged out the process for more than a month, obviously with the intention of making the recount efforts moot.

Back to the article quoted above: Do we have any evidence that the incident in 2001 was not rectified as soon as it was discovered? In the absence of such evidence, why is the Port Clinton News Herald trying to imply culpability on the part of John Conyers?

The same can be said of the 2002 memo, which remains controversial. The issue comes down to the question of whether or not Detroit has no more than 450,000 registered voters, as Kirkpatrick estimated. According to the Detroit News:

But Detroit Elections Director Gloria Williams maintains there are 611,321 registered voters in the city. This summer, the city spent $143,363 to mail registration cards.

"That's way wrong," Williams said of the 450,000 figure in Kilpatrick's memo.
By the way, we also do not know which side would be favored by these alleged ghost voters -- if they exist. Would John Conyers or his Republican opponent feel a greater need to pad the Detroit vote?

I draw attention to this attempt to smear Conyers because it gives us a hint as to the propaganda barrage the Republicans will surely mount, should his efforts justify a major counter-attack.

Funny, innit? The anti-Conyers forces in Ohio have become very worked up by a memo from 2002 estimating (based on what evidence, I know not) a lower number of registered voters in Detroit. But Conyers' critics do not see much wrong with the situation in Perry County, Ohio, where the number of votes significantly exceeded the number of people who signed the books. Democrat Bill Crane, who lost (by a razor-thin margin) the vote to retain his auditor's position, is filing suit...

We haven't even mentioned the ballooning absentee vote numbers in Turnball County, Ohio:

The Trumbull County investigation showed some 650 more absentee votes than there were absentee voters identified in the poll books examined. If the absentee vote inflation rate there were consistent statewide, then over 63,000 votes were up for grabs in Ohio. This unexplained problem would have been brought to light much earlier had it not been for an unlawful directive by Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell to prevent any public inspection of poll books prior to vote certification.
Let us summarize.

A right-leaning Ohio newspaper damns Conyers because of an unproven allegation of "funny numbers" in Detroit. But when similar allegations come backed by actual data, and when the dubious activity occurs in Ohio, and when a Democrat suffers -- that isn't anything for an Ohio newspaper to worry about.

Comprende?
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Comments:
I'm still wondering why Bush flew to Ohio after voting in Texas. Oh yeah, to chat with voters... according to the Cleveland (IIRC) paper. Somewhere I read that he met with Blackwell. Hmmm, wonder why?
 
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Monday, December 27, 2004

The disaster

We are all stunned by the Asian disaster; the images have been wrenching. I was gratified to learn that Arthur C. Clarke, who lives in Sri Lanka, escaped the tsunami. I thought I would pass along a message he posted just today on his site:

I am enormously relieved that my family and household have escaped the ravages of the sea that suddenly invaded most parts of coastal Sri Lanka, leaving a trail of destruction.

But many others were not so fortunate. For hundreds of thousands of Sri Lankans and an unknown number of foreign tourists, the day after Christmas turned out to be a living nightmare reminiscent of The Day After Tomorrow.

Among those affected are my staff based at our diving station in Hikkaduwa and holiday bungalow in Kahawa – both beachfront properties located in areas worst hit. We still don’t know the fully extent of damage as both roads and phones have been damaged. Early reports indicate that we have lost most of our diving equipment and boats. Not all our staff members are accounted for – yet.

This is indeed a disaster of unprecedented magnitude for Sri Lanka which lacks the resources and capacity to cope with the aftermath. We are all trying to contribute to the relief efforts. We shall keep you informed as we learn more about what happened.

Curiously enough, in my first book on Sri Lanka, I had written about another tidal wave reaching the Galle harbour (see Chapter 8 in The Reefs of Taprobane, 1957). That happened in August 1883, following the eruption of Krakatoa in roughly the same part of the Indian Ocean.
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Comments:
(As a child I used to have a recurring nightmare about being on a beach and seeing a gigantic tidal wave (tsunami) coming and no-one else was looking out to sea... I have no idea why my subconscious picked on this as the symbol for some kind of anxiety...)

On December 18th I attended the wedding of my neice and they were going to honeymoon in the Malvinas, but after Christmas, so they weren't there. Thinking of this young couple so much in love (and so loved by so many) being drowned made this disaster somewhat more personal.

Here's really why I am bothering to post. I read and downloaded an article from the UK Independent this year, but cannot find the link. It said that there is an undersea (?) volcano on La Palma in the Canary Islands in the Atlantic which could go anytime, but it doesn't have any seismic sensors on it to give advance warning.

The tsunami effects from this volcano would flood all the resort areas on the English south coast. There was a geology professor trying to get this volcano monitored. That way they could evacuate the densy populated low-lying areas (which given narrow roads would take some time.) Maybe he'll have better luck getting someone to listen now.

I just went back to The Independent (www.independent.co.uk) to try to find the article and found two, but they are now only available for purchase except for a short intro/description. But apparently the tsunami effects could also cross the Atlantic and devastate the US East Coast, which has a lot more low-lying seacoast cities than does the affected area of England.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=549820

There is a brief reference in a story there dated 12.27.04 on the cost of disasters related to global warming or not. (Says La Palma eruption unlikely.)

Many years ago I read that when a major earthquake hit Japan it would crash the US stock market because Japan would have to pull out it's investment to pay for reconstruction.

The global insurance industry (including US) won't insure nuclear power plants and were the first to push for action on global warming because they are the ones who have to pay for increases in extreme weather events. This latest and hugest disaster is not (provably) related to global warming, but the same companies have to pay out. May'be they'll get through to Bush Co finally.

Story about disaster costs is here:

http://independent.co.uk/low-res/story.jsp?story=596139&host=3&dir=507&dir=507&host=3
 
Essential oils, roots and herbs can be used in a variety of ways to promote healthy living and how to deal with stress. They are used to create natural remedies for treating ailments common to both people and animals, to add flavor to food, to make perfumes and to create environmentally friendly cleaning products.

You do not have to own a garden to tap into the benefits of plants, roots and herbs. A few herb pots located by a sunny window are enough to get you started. Then, all you need are some essential oils and you are ready to go.

For therapeutic purposes, only the purest oils will do. It is possible to be fooled into thinking that you are purchasing a pure oil. Often, a lesser quality blend of several oils is used to mimic the properties of the pure oil. Blended oils are acceptable for fragrance purposes such as for perfuming a room, but pure oils are a "must" for medicinal purposes.

A reasonable guide to the purity of an essential oil is its price. Pure essential oils are generally more expensive. Common oils such as lavender and geranium are much cheaper than frankincense and carnation oil. It is advisable to become familiar with essential oil prices and then rely on this knowledge when purchasing oils from unfamiliar sources. Keep in-mind that you will generally get what you pay for. A price list from a reputable dealer is a valuable resource when purchasing essentials oils.

Usually, pure essential oils cannot be applied directly to the skin and must be mixed in a base oil to reduce their strength. Base oils such as almond oil or wheatgerm oil are commonly used for this purpose. Base oils are generally derived from seeds, nuts or vegetables and allow you to create essential oil remedies that can be massaged into the skin.

So, what do you need to get started with essential oils and natural remedies?

Without a doubt, Lavender is one of the most useful and desirable oils. Not only does it work wonders on cuts, bruises and burns, it also aids sleep and helps with relaxation.

The Tea Tree and Eucalyptus oils are useful for treating a variety of respiratory ailments. These are excellent for the treatment of colds and coughs. They can be massaged into the chest or burned in an oil burner to help clear the airways and prevent congestion. Tea Tree oil is a natural antiseptic and can be dabbed on cuts, bites and stings. It is often used to treat spots and pimples and when diluted with water, acts as a mouth gargle (keep in-mind it should never be swallowed).

Another basic antiseptic is Geranium oil. With its distinctive perfume and pain relieving properties, it is a necessary inclusion when starting out.

Peppermint oil should also be purchased as it treats digestive complaints and may be used in preparations for freshening breath.

For fragrant perfumes and establishing ambience in a room, buy some Patchouli and Ylang-ylang oils. Often combined in scented candles and air fresheners, a few drops of each in an oil burner creates a wonderfully perfumed home. Orange oil mixed with Cinnamon oil is a lovely winter alternative that evokes seasonal, holiday smells. Besides their perfume qualities, all four of these oils have other properties. Patchouli treats eczema and dandruff. Ylang-ylang is reputed to relieve stress, palpitations and high blood pressure. Orange is used in natural remedies for depression and nervous tension and Cinnamon is excellent for warts and viral infections.

The herbs, Thyme and Rosemary can be grown in pots and used when needed. To create essential oils from herbs, stew some large amounts in pure water, collect the steam and cool it. The oil will rise to the top of the drained water and can be collected with an eyedropper. Alternatively, a "flower still" can be purchased to make the job easier. Thyme and Rosemary are both antiseptics and can be used in skin care preparations. They are also delicious when used in cooking.

Lemon oil and fresh lemons will purify water and, when mixed with honey, are effective remedies for colds and flu. Lemon and white vinegar are highly efficient cleaning agents that can be used for domestic cleaning tasks without damaging the environment. Use white vinegar as a natural disinfectant or mix it with water to clean windows and wooden floors. It is also handy to keep a bottle of white vinegar in your car if you swim in the ocean. It will bring instant relief from jellyfish stings.

Citronella oil is perfect in summer to keep the insects at bay. Another natural repellent is Garlic. Fleas will not bite a dog that has been eating garlic, so a few garlic capsules in the dog food are a cheap solution to your pet's flea problem. A soft collar soaked in Citronella will also do the job.

Garlic also helps to promote a healthy immune system when the weather turns cold and viruses begin to circulate. In fact, most of the oils and herbs listed above are effective in helping to prevent many common winter illnesses.

Whether you are looking for remedies or nature friendly products to use around the house, the oils and herbs suggested above should help get you started. You will be ready to make some healthy changes in your way of life!

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A few brief vote notes

Between the holiday cheer, caring for a sick puppy, repairing a sick computer, and keeping the wolf from the door, I haven't had much time for holiday blogging. Here are a few things I've learned during this holiday: Chocolate-covered strawberries are among the finest things in all creation, MSI mainboards should be avoided, and vets are the nicest people in the world.

Kerry files. William Rivers Pitt reports that John Kerry has filed motions to preserve possible evidence of electoral fraud in Ohio. I'm glad that he is getting into this, and I'm glad that the dialogue is turning to "fraud," as opposed to "problems."

Of course, as anyone who has ever been involved with a lawsuit knows, the filing of a motion does not mean that a judge will allow it. But if it is allowed, Triad will have to offer a sworn deposition. It'll be interesting to see who pays the bills for his lawyer.

Unconcession? you may have heard a rumor that Kerry will "un-concede" on January 6 (the feast of the Epiphany and Joan of Arc's birthday). If that happens, I'll eat the hat I got for Christmas.

Revote in Florida and Ohio! Sign the petition! Do I think that these petitions serve much purpose in real life? Um...hard to say. At any rate, big numbers will hearten everyone who cares about this issue.

Feeney sues. Representative Tom Feeney has filed a lawsuit against the Seminole Chronicle for the story they did on Clinton Curtis, the programmer who has claimed under oath that he was Feeney tasked him to come up with a prototype vote-rigging program. I strongly suggest that you read not just Brad Friedman's in depth reportage, but also the very revealing reader commentary.

Computer vote fraud in Texas. The office is a small one, but the issues loom large:

"As I look back over the General Election held on Nov. 2, 2004, I know that voting is a 'right' that is being taken away everyday," writes Brenda Denson-Prince. But she is not writing about far away places like Ohio or Florida. She is writing about her own attempt to become the first woman in Kaufman County, Texas to sit on the County Commissioners Court.
Bottom line: The central tabulators stole the election from her. The problem was, of course, labeled a "glitch." She called for a recount, which was also gamed:

On Wednesday morning, Nov. 10, Joan D. Neeley represented the Democratic Party at a sorting of early ballots. Of 30,000 votes cast in Kaufman County, 16,000 were early votes.

“We kept noticing ballots in the wrong piles [voting boxes] as we continued through our process and because of this we all decided we would double check each pile [voting box] for accuracy after sorting was complete," noted Neeley in a signed statement, dated Nov. 16. But according to Neeley's statement, the double-checking was never completed. It was interrupted on Nov. 10, and when on Nov. 12 Neeley requested a resumption, she was informed that a court order would be needed to break the seals on remaining boxes.
The hand-count of ballots showed clear signs of erasures (despite the fact that voting booth pencils have no erasers attached) and even white-out.

Sometimes a small story casts light on a larger one...

Dominion. As you know, the vote-riggers justify their criminality through a belief in Christian Reconstructionism, or Dominionism. This is the weltanschauung of the Ahmanson family, which runs ESS, the company that counts so many of our votes. I urge you to check out this video on the Dominionist menace.

The term "Christo-Fascist" has seen some recent currency. I think the label works, and I hope to increase see it in greater circulation.
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"Christo-Fascist" - Why not using the good old "clerico-fascist" term.?
 
Why not clerico-fascist? Because the most fascist members of the movement often are not members of any denomination's clergy.

For instance, there's this guy they call Dubya...
 
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