Exit polls and more

The exit poll. Jonathan Simon and Ron P. Baiman will no doubt come in for the usual ad hominem attacks -- after all, when the Republican propagandists can't go after the data, they always go after those who dared to compile it. Even so, let's do what we can to publicize their latest, updated analysis of the exit poll controversy.

Here's the summary they offer:

There is a substantial discrepancy -- well outside the margin of error and outcome-determinative -- between the national exit poll and the popular vote count.

The possible causes of the discrepancy would be random error, a skewed exit poll, or breakdown in the fairness of the voting process and accuracy of the vote count.

Analysis shows that the discrepancy cannot reasonably be accounted for by chance or random error.

Evidence does not support hypotheses that the discrepancy was produced by problems with the exit poll.

Widespread breakdown in the fairness of the voting process and accuracy of the vote count are the most likely explanations for the discrepancy.

In an accurate count of a free and fair election, the strong likelihood is that Kerry would have been the winner of the popular vote.

For the full report -- pdf-style, alas -- go here.

Will Byrd fly to the rescue? For reasons given yesterday, it may not be politically wise for John Kerry to challenge the Ohio electors. Two other names have been mooted: John Edwards and Robert Byrd.

Edwards, it is said, felt that the concession was premature. He will be out of the senate soon. However, he is nothing if not ambitious, and plunging headlong into a sea of national ridicule can do nothing for his goals.

But Byrd...ah, now that is an idea. He's an ornery old lion. He hates this administration. And he's reached the age at which a man speaks his mind and just does not give a shit what anyone has to say in reply.

In my eyes, Byrd is the best man for the job. Perhaps we should write him and encourage him to speak up in favor of fair elections?