Friday, November 12, 2004

The empire strikes back: Data and disinformation

Just when Professor Freeman's study gives new weight to the argument in favor of vote fraud, the New York Times and other major media outlets cover the story in a demeaning and unfair fashion.

The Times piece castigates bloggers as poor investigators, yet ignores Dr. Freeman's work, which we must now consider the key piece of research. How deceptive is writer Tom Zeller jr.? Here's an example:

And the early Election Day polls, conducted for a consortium of television networks and The Associated Press, which proved largely inaccurate in showing Mr. Kerry leading in Florida and Ohio, continued to be offered as evidence that the Bush team somehow cheated.
So much for the exit polls. We see no discussion of the historical reliability of exit polls (as opposed to predictive polls), both in our own past elections and in other countries. We see no mention of the fact that Georgia (the one Stalin came from, not the one Jimmy Carter came from) experienced the ouster of its president when the populace became furious over the disparity between exit polls and final results.

Look at that smarmy wording: "early Election Day polls..." This is a lie. To repeat a quote from Freeman I've used in a previous piece:

Regarding time of day variation, this paper does not refer to mid-day reports, but rather end of day data, which happened to be still available at midnight. But even if there were an early voter bias, is there any reason to believe that early votes would be skewed Democratic?
Folk wisdom used to hold that Democrats tended to vote after work.

The Times hopes to dismiss fears about the final tally by calling the exits "inaccurate." The only proof that they were inaccurate? The exit results did not agree with the final tally! Reasoning, thy name is circular -- at least at the NYT.

To reiterate a point I've made many times: Even if the exits were inaccurate, why did the errors work in only one direction?

The piece devotes much time to Kathy Dopp's well-known data on Florida's optical scan counties, which is something of a diversionary issue. We have been saying for a number of days now that the real problem concerns the GEMS central tabulator (mysteriously unmentioned by the Times), not the "Dixiecrat" counties. (As noted below, some have argued that the "blue dog" areas of Florida should have been less blue this election.)

Focusing on Dopp while ignoring Dr. Freeman constitutes a damnable attempt at misdirection. Zeller scores the bloggers for sloppiness, yet refuses to finish his own homework.

And if you thought everyone at MSNBC would function well on this issue, prepare for the shock of cold water on your face. NBC's latest, by Chip Reid, follows the NYT down the deception trail.

Voting irregularities are reduced, once more, to the blue dog counties in Florida and the infamous 4000-vote discrepancy in that one Ohio precinct. Reid refuses to note any number of other oddities in Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (which may have to offer a revote) and elsewhere. Needless to say, this piece makes no reference to the 50,000 "accidentally lost" absentee ballots in Broward county, Florida.

Reid refuses to see the importance of pattern. As I keep saying: An individual problem can be dismissed as a glitch. But when error after error after error favors Bush and not a single "accident" favors Kerry, we've left glitch-land.

Note this beauty of a paragraph from Reid:

How about those reports of a vote for Kerry getting Bush? Election experts say it happened both ways, and in most cases it was voter error. And as for the early exit polls they were just that, early, and election officials say, wrong.
"Voter error"? The first-hand reports cited in previous posts detail how voters pressed "Kerry" repeatedly only to see the name "Bush" pop up. People don't make such simple errors eight or nine times in a row. I've yet to discover a single published report of the opposite scenario, in which a repeated attempt to vote for Bush kept coming up Kerry. The letter by Representatives John Conyers, Jr, Jerrold Nadler and Robert Wexler to the GAO refers to over a thousand cases across the country in which an unwanted Bush flashed on screen.

And just who are these enigmatic "election experts"? Funny thing -- the experts offering evidence of fraud tend to have names (not to mention credentials): Dr. Freeman of the University of Pennsylvania, Dr. David Anick of M.I.T., and Bill Hawkes, the former A.C. Nielsen Co. statistician. By contrast, the "experts" cited in pieces telling us to trust the tallies remain nameless phantoms.

To repeat: The exits were not early, and you can't call them inaccurate simply because they conflict with the final result. The fact that the disparities went in but one direction (and have done so in three consecutive elections) indicates that the so-called "actuals" are anything but.

There's a word for a piece on potential vote fraud which stipulates a priori that the final results are unimpeachable: Propaganda.

33 comments:

Gnostradamus said...

I have written to NYT and forwarded this article to them, rebuking them for their shameful story and requesting that the issues raised be acknowledged. I suggest that others do the same.

National: national@nytimes.com

Anonymous said...

Not only did the "mainstream" media discount the reports of voter fraud in this election, but David Corn of The Nation Magazine made light of the various reports, and has decided that counting the uncounted votes would have made no difference, and the problems with the election were few. I was very disappointed to read his article in yesterday's Buzzflash.com. Made me glad I didn't renew my subscription.

Anonymous said...

I too fired off many letters to the Times, to Mr. Okrent, to that idiot Zeller. That piece this morning got my blood boiling. What a load of crap. I fucking HATE the Times now. I would cancel my subscription but I need to keep an eye on them. How dare they? Who pulls their strings?

-Ivy, pissed off voter

Anonymous said...

i want to know why the democratic senators and representatives, excluding the six who have come forward, are not raising all kinds of hell over this fraudulant election. don't we elect them to speak for us? isn't that their job? i am writing letters on the internet, passing around articles to my friends to keep them posted as to what to do. but, i say again, where are the people who are supposed to represent us? are they playing small to protect their careers? are they so afraid that the bushies will make sure they are not re-elected that they remain silent? i know that remaining silent ensures no guaranty for anything except the guaranty that democracy as we know it is over.

Anonymous said...

I don't know why anyone would be surprised at the NYT. Aren't they the ones who pulled the Bulge story just a few days before the election, after Karl Rove raised hell with the editor?
I just hope that when the dust finally settles, that we all remember the MSM who showed courage in the face of adversity and support them. As for the others, I hope the lists of non-renewed subscriptions will speak for themselves.

Joe said...

It’s clear to me that the media which profits from a Bush administration that further allows Media Giants gobbling up more and more local newspapers, TV and radio stations will never fully inform the public of this or any other story that reduces their bottom line. We the people of the US need to target the bottom line of these Media Giants. When Sinclair was going to air a Pro-Bush Anti-Kerry documentary right before the election, the people contacted the advertisers of those Sinclair stations. The marketing managers of those stations were very rattled by this. We Americans need to coordinate our efforts picking a single network contacting them and their advertisers that the American people insist upon complete disclosure of the news regardless of whether it puts the Bush administration in a bad light, and if they will not we lead a boycott of their advertisers. One by one we bring the Media Moguls to their financial knees. Remember we the people are the ones who buy the products that keep broadcasters and newspapers in business. If we the people withhold our marketing dollars from stations and newspapers, they will go under. Ultimately we control their destiny. If they will not do their duty to fully inform the public on the news we can force them out of business. The FCC license these broadcasters have allows them to use the public-owned airwaves for free provided they use those airwaves in the public’s best interest. The Bush appointed FCC head, Michael Powell refuses to do his job to enforce that. So we will have to do it for him. Together we can force the newspapers, TV and radio stations to broadcast the news that we deserve, or they will no longer be in business. Case closed.

Gnostradamus said...

Don't give MSNBC too much credit, before you read this:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6463505/

Anonymous said...

I have a good feeling that future information that will come from further investigations on this matter will be so damning that more then a few heads will fall!
Ok maybe only one!.....I choose DIEBOLt'S CEO and then maybe that infamous Blackwell.
let's support the Democratic congressman who sent a letter to the GAO.
Valerie Anne Gagnon

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