We're all watching the polls. Who can do otherwise?
Check out the differences between Slate's electoral college poll and this one, from electoral-vote.com. Slate has the score at 270 to 268, Bush ahead with enough votes to win. The Electoral Vote Predictor has the score at 253 to 247, Kerry ahead, though not yet in the clear.
What are the main differences?
Interestingly, Slate puts Ohio -- with a fat 20 votes -- in the Kerry column, while EVP calls it for Bush. EVP calls Florida a tie, while Slate gives the state to Bush. Slate puts Nevada in the Bush column, EVP files it under K for Kerry.
Let's pretend to be Kerry's advisors. (And who hasn't played that game in recent months?) Where would you put the campaign's resources?
Florida? God, no. Florida is a lost cause. Even if Kerry wins, he will not have the win recognized as a win.
Nevada? Yes, some resources. It's a natural place for California volunteers to go. But the ubiquity of compu-voting makes me wary of this state.
Ohio. If Kerry can flip this state -- according to Slate, he already has -- and if he can keep New Jersey (a tie, according to Slate), and if he wins in all the tied states...
Nope. Stop thinking that way. Bush still comes away with 272. Enough for a win.
Kerry must therefore flip another "pinkish" state. But which one?
New Mexico! The October 6 Gallup poll gave Bush a four point advantage, but Gallup skews Republican, and Kerry had not yet swept the debates. A similar poll conducted by the Albuquerque Journal gave Kerry a three-point lead.
The bad news: Many counties in the land of the blue corn tortilla also use computerized voting equipment.
Arkansas? Close. But it's a state where gay marriage is a particularly radioactive issue, and Kerry's final debate comments did not help. Something similar can be said of Oregon, which may slip from cerulean to crimson due to a state-wide referendum on this controversy.
It's possible for Kerry to win despite the vote fraud in Florida (and perhaps elsewhere). It's sort of like playing chess when the other guy has two Queens.
1 comment:
Wow... this story was losing momentum, but the BULGE just won't quit... I guess its as stubborn as Bush himself.
isbushwired.com: Thanks for the transcript of the Meet the Press interview, I saw it today and was speechless... for a moment.
I have just added the photo from Bush's 9/11 commission appearance to the BULGE PHOTO GALLERY. If you have not seen it, its a real gem!
http://bushwired.blogspot.com/
More later!
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