Saturday, October 30, 2004

Osama's latest: Is it real?

Since I've promised to hold my pessimism in check, I will not discuss the impact of the latest Osama tape on the election. Instead, let's address questions of authenticity. This tape -- a reminder that the leader of the terrorist wolf-pack remains at large -- arrives at an awfully convenient time.

But is it real?

To set the stage, recall Karl Rove's "wink" to Sean Hannity regarding the likelihood of an October Surprise or two. Then take a look at Buzzflash's analysis of the timing. First, the Defense Department reminded us that OBL is still alive, and then the Bush campaign began pushing 9/11 in a big way. (This barrage included the "Ashley" ad, a piece of pure treacle which emphasizes the "Bush as Daddy" meme: "He's the most powerful man in the world -- and all he wants is to keep me safe...")

The administration, we learn, somehow attained a copy independently of Al Jazeera, which received the tape anonymously in Pakistan. The White House offered instant confirmation the tape as authentic. We have yet to learn the basis for this conclusion.

The message makes a garbled reference to the "My Pet Goat" embarrassment, which many right-wingers associate with Michael Moore (as though he were somehow to blame). The text seems to indicate that Bin Laden wants a Kerry victory. Obviously, any attempt by Bin Laden to sway the electorate could only help Bush. (Incidentally, Bill Maher certainly did not aid Kerry's cause when he compared Bin Laden's "talking points" to themes sounded at the Democratic National Convention.)

Everything Bin Laden says in this tape provides conservative pundits with high-octane fuel.

Given these circumstances, we should feel no surprise that at least one website has already pronounced the latest Bin Laden video to be a fake. Check out the photographic comparison for yourself, and ask if we are dealing with the same man. Provisionally, I am not persuaded -- and yet, the eyebrows do seem rather different.

I would also note that the use of photographic doubles has a long history. For example, those who know the Vicki Morgan scandal well may recall that several published reports described a video showing "Vicki" using a sexual device on "Ronald Reagan." That video, I am told, was concocted by an Eastern bloc intelligence service, using lookalikes.

Talk Left notes these differences between the latest video and previous ones:

-- no quotes from the Koran or Islamic rhetoric
-- no automatic weapon in view
-- no al Qaeda commanders with him
The comment about Osama's rhetoric seems particularly relevant. In Arabic-speaking countries, Osama Bin Laden is known for his eloquent, "poetic" style of speech, yet nothing in the current communication seems particularly poetic. To the contrary, he is downright prosaic.

Admittedly, the translation may not convey his words adequately, and not all of the video has been transcribed.

Moreover, Osama now shows a sudden interest in United States domestic issues, such as the Patriot act, on which he sounds suspiciously like a left-wing Democrat. He makes no reference to issues of interest primarily to Muslims -- issues such as India or Chechnya.

Oh...and for what it is worth: The pseudonymous "Brad Menfil," the alleged G.O.P. deep insider who has sent scoops about bulge-gate to Indymedia, has returned to the stage. Now he is saying that the latest OBL message is a fake.

This is the worst thing my Repulican friends have ever done. What you saw yesterday was not Bin Laden. I repeat, it was not Bin Laden. It was a clever Republican hoax used to distract our attention from the missing explosives and help rally support around a dying campaign.

The news media picked it up and followed a predictable script. "Would this help Bush?" "Can Kerry say anything?"

Well, I can say something. That video was a hoax. The bearded man in the video is an actor and this plan has been in the making for about 3 months now. Since no credible evidence exist that Bin Laden is anywhere near a studio, the first chink in this armor is the "comfortable settings."

That Bin Laden can no longer stand for more than one minute at a time, gives away the authenticity of this newest video. Bin Laden is a diabetic and has had three toes removed from his left foot and almost his whole right foot has been removed as well.
Ah, but is "Brad" himself a hoax? Frankly, nearly everyone involved in researching bulge-gate thinks this "inside" source is either a Bush plant (if that phrase is forgivable) or a simple fabulist. I have passed his words along to you even though they are probably of very little value.

Even so, we need not accept the tape as gospel just because a dubious source calls it a fake.

3 comments:

Jolie said...

Was it Bill Maher who first said how hard can it be to catch a 6'8" guy trailing a dialysis machine in the desert? I didn't believe it before, but you have got me thinking: could this be Rove's October surprise? If so, couldn't it backfire?

Anonymous said...

Here's some questions. The tape was about 18 minutes long, of which 14 were shown. What was so shocking on the other four minutes that had to be hidden from us kids?

The transcripts I've seen seem to contain about four minutes worth of speech. Did Osama speak exceptionally slowly, or were only partial transcripts released?

I must admit, I have been saying for years that I expected Osama to be trotted out just before the election. I just expected it to be in body, rather than on video.

The timing in itself should be enough for all Americans to just shout as one: "Oh, for F*ck's sake!" But they've shown themselves to be resillient to logic many times before. A hardy and gullible nation, no question.

Then again, the ambiguity regarding exactly who it will help is hard to figure. Hardliners on either side of the debate will merely become more determined that the tape justifies their argument. But the swinging voters could go either way -- it could be the final cynical exercise that makes them vote for change, or it could send them back to clinging to Daddy for comfort.

Ultimately, I think it works as a perfect distraction, as well as reminding people that there was once a real threat behind all the created and artificial threats of the past few years.

Has anyone been looking into the possibility that Al Jazeera is actually working with the evil elements in America? Or at least being used as a stooge to show dodgy tapes at dubious times?

Joy Tomme said...

Look, we've been scammed again. OBL with his diabetes and need for dialysis is probably dead. But for sure, by now he's too sick and disabled to be going to studios to make a tape.

Ar least this is the last time the Three Card Monte guys in the White House will run their con on us. The Karl Rove Indie Film Co. is out of business.

IT'S OVER!!!!!!!!!

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