Most polls have Bush ahead. See here and here and here.
The news has become grimmer on the electoral college front as well. The electoral vote predictor site, which until recently had given Kerry a slight edge, now has him running behind Bush, 243-257.
Worse, that 243 vote count depends upon Nevada going Democrat, while Florida is counted as a precise tie. Nevada has switched to computer voting, which means the state is unwinnable if the vote is close. Florida is no longer a democracy; it is therefore beyond Kerry's reach.
Florida's 27 votes plus Nevada's five brings Bush's total to 289, more than the 270 needed to secure a win.
Why did Kerry's debate win turn into a net loss? The gay issue.
The reference to the Cheney's daughter provided the Republicans with an opening. Indeed, even if he had not brought her up, Kerry's declaration that homosexuality is not a choice alienated many Christians. Bush's "I don't know" response was the perfect one for that forum.
There is no fourth debate allowing Kerry to turn the trend around. So much for the election. Astonishingly, the worst president in our history will win a second term.
9 comments:
Buck up man. This thing isn't close to being over.
What can I say? You want optimism, talk to my girlfriend. She's still planning a Kerry victory party. (How can a lady who dresses in black all the time have such a sunny attitude...?)
Hi -- I linked to your blog a while back (well, last couple of weeks or so) during the heat of the 'promptergate' stuff and I've enjoyed most of your other posts, but still, even up til today, I haven't been able to figger out where you're coming from (i.e., is this a 'liberal' or 'them' blog) -- I was beginning to conclude it was mostly liberal (or however you'd like to put it) but then at one point you commented that you always think Republicans win -- scratched my head on that one. And then today's post about the election being over because Kerry said lesbian -- whoa, hold on there, I think the people get to vote first (before the election is stolen -- now THAT'S a legitimate worry). This lesbian distraction can't sustain itself, no matter how homophobic many people are -- they also have sons/daughters/friends who are gay and know that it's not the boogeyman that some would desperately want others to believe. And you also conclude that the polls are turning? Well, dude, where ya been the last three months, they've been turning this way and that, sometimes on a daily basis. I know, I sound like Pollyanna here, but your reaction is the stereotypical Democratic throw-in-the-towel at the hint of bad news syndrome (so, I guess you are liberal!) But the rest of us will hang in there until the bitter end -- my guess sometime right before Christmas. I'll be back to your place, but please don't be so NEGATIVE!!!!!!
Dude, this is far from lost.
The lesbian issue is nothing. And if it affect the homophobe vote, it will be against Cheney, not for him. I think the reason for shifting polls is just that we're getting down to the wire and people who are on the fence are starting to really seriously think about which way they'll go. And just because they give one answer to a pollster on one day doesn't mean they'll vote that way.
Watch how the flu vaccine story and continual worsening in Iraq affect things. And keep working at it. I didn't hear no rotund woman croon yet.
What's with the defeatist attitude? Kerry has at least as good a shot at the Oval Office as monkey-boy. Ohio and Pennsylvania are probably locks already.
Polls are for people how to get the vote out. Kerry by five points.
Be calm. Bush will win the election, but Kerry will be sworn in as President. Got it?
Remember, polls only include "likely" voters. i.e., they leave out all the newly registered people, people with cell phones, people who don't usually vote but are so angry this time around they're heading to the polls. It ain't over 'til it's over. Now please cheer up!
Um-when I clicked on the electoral vote predictor site, at about 1:15 PM central time Sunday 10/17, the screen showed Kerry ahead 253-247. Take heart.
As an outside observer (ie a foreigner not living in the US) it seems to me a large issue that will lead to a sizeable Bush win is the defeatist attitude I often see amongst Democrats. As soon as something goes against you, you give up! You live in a country where what? Half the people who can vote, don't? You just need to get democrat voters voting, and it'll be a slam dunk! A defeatist attitude just leads to people staying home. Believe you will win - and you will. A self fulfilling prophecy. So get out there guys!
The rest of the world is on your side. We want an America that leads, not an America that bullies. An America we all respect because it deserves our respect, not because it demands it like a petulant teenager. Please guys, we NEED you to win. Don't give up!!!!
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