"Ahead by a nose" ain't good enough

On Talking Points Memo, guest blogger Ruy Teixeira tells us to relax about the polls, even though Kerry's on-again, off-again lead is usually onionskin-thin:

Eventually, of course, Kerry does need to take and maintain a solid lead, but it is unrealistic to expect that to happen this early in the campaign. Perhaps after the Democratic convention such a pattern might begin to emerge, but that would be the earliest.

I don't agree.

Why is this election year unlike all other election years? Because this is the year of the "next big event." You know it. I know it. The Republicans know it -- they've been preparing the ground for it. Everyone is expecting Osama and his band to strike again, and everyone knows that the Bush-backers will claim, absurdly, that it happened because Al Qaeda loves Democrats.

The time for Kerry to pull ahead is now, because he will take a massive hit after a large chunk of Chicago turns into glowing green vapor stew.

Besides, no president with Bush's resume -- an upopular war, scandal, gargantuan deficits, not one single day of true prosperity -- should command such high numbers. His continuing hold on half the electorate demonstrates the G.O.P.s brilliance at defining opponents and the tenacity of Republicanism among the fundamentalist set.

Oh, speaking of Kerry: Did you catch Harry Shearer's impersonation ("Profiles in Kerrage" on Le Show)? Astonishing. You can't hear even a hint of Shearer's normal voice. W no doubt came easily: Shearer simply found the half-waypoint between Bush the elder and Ned Flanders. But Kerry ain't easy to do.