Zogby predicts

Pollster John Zogby has picked a winner in the presidential election: John Kerry.

Would that it were so; I remain unpersuaded. Zogby bases his argument on the presumption that Kerry is "a good closer." But the Bush forces have been able to "Gore" his reputation with false charges, and repetition will make those charges stick. When Kerry defends himself against those charges, he fights on the Republicans' preferred territory: The G.O.P. would much prefer a dialogue on Vietnam to a dialogue on Iraq.

If Kerry counter-attacks Bush as a prevaricator -- as he must -- he'll be castigated as mean-spirited. Of course, media double standards allow the Bush forces to "go negative."

No matter how good a "closer" Kerry may be, he won't be able to prevail against an October Surprise. We may even see two such surprises: The capture of Osama Bin Laden, and the next big terrorist attack. As long as the public perceives Bush as "The man who opposed Al Qaeda," instead of "The man who couldn't bring Al Qaeda down," Bush cannot be defeated. In the wake of a nuclear attack, the public may grant Bush dictatorial powers. I speak literally.

Everything comes down to perception management. The Republican propaganda machine is (per David Brock) a billion-buck-a-year operation, if you include all the fellowships and think tanks that keep the reactionary scribes fat and happy. As Bill Maher once said: With that amount of money, the Republicans can convince the American people to drink paint.

Bush is nearly invincible. The only thing that can bring him to grief is a split within the establishment -- for example, if his enemies at CIA decide that they've suffered enough abuse at the hands of the neocons. The spooks may be able to unseat George W. Bush. John Kerry can't.