Tuesday, December 15, 2020

A scary tweet about Russia's hack. Plus: Evidence that the vote was rigged TO FAVOR REPUBLICANS (Updated)

This is serious. Do not minimize the importance of this. 
Elsewhere: On Lawrence O'Donnell's show just now, Glenn Kirschner suggested just now that Barr allowed his signature to appear on a letter written by Trump in exchange for a pardon -- a secret pardon. He's far from the only person who thinks that way
So what has Barr done requiring a pardon?
I did not ask "What has Barr done that is evil?" If you thought I asked that question, re-read the preceding paragraph.  

Speaking of legal issues, I should have mentioned earlier that Donald Trump retweeted the following insanity.
No "crime" specified. Apparently, refusal to break the law on Trump's behalf makes one an agent of China. It is also clear that Wood thinks that Trump will have a second term, or will establish a dictatorship.
Look, nobody likes the Chinese government. But the obsession with China traces back to Falun Gong. We need to find out where their money comes from and how they are funding the Trumpers.
Update: North Carolina state Sen. Bob Steinburg has joined those calling for Trump to suspend the Constitution and declare and emergency in order to stay in power.  
“There’s something going on here bigger than what anybody is willing to talk about,” Steinburg told WRAL Tuesday evening. “I don’t like conspiracy theories at all. But something is going on here that’s bigger than meets the eye.”
I quite agree. But, as I have always said, right-wing conspiracy theorists ARE the conspirators. Steinberg only proves the point. 

Meanwhile, the QAnoners have turned on Mitch McConnell because he dared to recognize Joe Biden as President-Elect. It's all a Chinese plot, sayeth the Q qrazies. More here.
This tweet sums up my own feelings perfectly. 
I'm a dark Sicilian. Is there another kind? Never thought I'd approvingly quote a former Tea Party leader, but times are weird.
Finally: Evidence that the vote was rigged to favor Republicans. The following data may be linked to the Blumenthal tweet at the top of this post. Just try to explain away these numbers.
 Let us continue Cohn's thread...
“Not a single poll of the 22 polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight since July 6, 2020 gave Collins a lead. Gideon led in every poll—RealClearPolitics’ polls since the beginning of October averaged a lead of 5.7%, 538’s averaged a lead of 4.7% (listed in tables below).” 
“The 12.6% discrepancy between 538’s compiled polls and the computer vote count was the highest of all the US Senate races listed in the tables below.”
“North Carolina – In 65 polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight since September 1, 2020 Cal Cunningham, Democrat led in 63. Republican incumbent Thom Tillis only led in one, with two polls tied.” 
“Similarly 43 polls listed by RealClearPolitics since September 1 Tillis led in only two with two tied. The unverified computer vote counts, however, declared Republican Thom Tillis the winner.” 
To be clear, polling discrepancies do not prove fraud bc the polls themselves are opaque. But these states do not conduct meaningful manual audits, which means the electronic results are effectively unverified.
IMO, the polling discrepancies put us on inquiry notice. If we care about democracy, we shld investigate to the extent we can.
IMO, at a minimum, we shld do public records requests for poll tapes and audit logs re: Republicans’ poll-defying victories in the US Senate races in Maine and NC.
Yes, KY too, given it’s import & anomalies discovered by @GrassrootsSpeak. Although the polls did predict a McConnell victory, the result is still red shifted. 
The problem is that obtaining g and analyzing precinct poll tapes will be very time consuming and expensive. And it very well may not show anything amiss. This is why we need robust manual election audits for all races. The #SAFEAct wld have required them, but Rs killed it. 


Casbott said...

Dems should judo the GOP and use their voter fraud arguments against them to get meaningful voter reform legislation passed.
The first part is outlawing electronic voting, use the false propaganda against Dominion to get ESS banned as well. A complete paper trial will hamper the GOP, but they will have trouble justifying objecting to that to the MAGA faction.

And When the GOP object the rumour that the GOP Establishment rigged the Election to get rid of Trump while keeping themselves mostly safe and having some power, can be used to turn their own supporters against them.

Already a few MAGA'S have turned on McConnell for not supporting Trumps steal attempt all the way. The conspiracy theory that McConnell actually wanted Trump out and rigged the polls to ensure that happened would give the GOP a world of hurt.
That's the problem with a rampaging mob, they can sometimes be tricked into burning down the wrong buildings.

And even just a bit of evidence of GOP vote rigging would infuriate the MAGA's - not that the GOP had done it… but that the GOP had not done enough rigging to let Trump win.

The Dems could also use going all paper ballots as a bargaining tool if they don't have the Senate, put going all paper on the table as a "concession" that the MAGA's would leap at to 'stop the Dems cheating again' - they would force the GOP to accept it, while the Dems get something else in return… day automatic voter registration to 'prevent illegals voting'.

The GOP has backed itself into a corner by actually convincing it's base that Dem fraud is real, because then they will accept measures to stop it that also incidentally stop GOP dirty tricks.

Anonymous said...

I think one can read between the lines of the carefully written alarm:


Anonymous said...

Joe - I like your bigger picture perspective that Republicans and Democrats or their sponsors are rigging elections. I’m looking for thoughts on exactly how it works. Is it the mail in votes? Is it in the software? Do all of the state level elections executives have awareness yet look the other way? I get that it seems to be happening and the polls are not explainable. Both Trump and Joe Biden got record votes which you can look at as one of those anomalies that is worth investigating.

Ivory Bill Woodpecker said...

Off-topic weekly reminder:

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Both shows can be found at Arkansas Rocks.

If you can't catch Beaker Street live, MP3 files are available soon afterward at this site.

Anonymous said...

The corrupt establishments within the republican and democratic parties are the only entities within the US with the elaborate political machinery needed to rig an election. They will never support legislation that insures free and fair elections and allow third parties and/or populists to gain power through the electoral process.

Joseph Cannon said...

Anons -- I'm sorry, but where have I ever intimated that ANY Dem ever rigged ANY election anywhere? Where is the evidence for that?

The "red shift" is a very real phenomenon. Election after election, over the course of at least twenty years, Republicans get more votes than exit polls or pre-election polls suggest they should. If the rigging were bipartisan, there would be both a red shift and a blue shift.

Polls are off by substantial amounts -- four percent, five percent -- in the UK. But the errors go BOTH ways, right and left. That doesn't happen here.

The Republican party is the only party that continually TALKS about conspiracies. I believe that the Republican party is the only party that continually PRACTICES conspiracies. The Dems are innocent.

There. I said it and I won't budge.

Anonymous said...

But if democrats are innocents why are they allowing it to happen over and over again. Remember 2016 election they are the ones assuring the public how solid the elections are, even it was apparent that Putin was messing it up. Remember when Obama famously asked Putin to cut it out and then went on his merry ways. I hated Gore when he conceded. Something is there.

Ivory Bill Woodpecker said...

I am not, and never will be, a member of any elite--except in the terminology of the USA's "populist" right, in which the word "elitists" means "people who accept that people with skins darker than a brown paper bag are fully human", and/or "people who can count to 20 without removing their shoes and socks first".

Nonetheless, if Donald Trump and his Orc-hordes are "populists", then give me elite rule.

Anonymous said...

Republicans have been "rigging" the vote, in many states, for a long time now, Joseph; you're quite right about the suspicious nature of the chronic "Red Shift" phenomenon. And Trump's advisors, at least the Machiavelli-schooled ones, knew this and assured their bloated-ego boss that the only way he could lose a second term would be if the plutocratic (not Democratic) string-pullers decided to "rig" the vote, in key states, against him. And they most surely did, having firmly decided that despite all his fawning over their most influential members, they just couldn't accept any more of Trump's erratic behavior and refusal to attack Iran.

The collective sigh of relief among the Republican establishment (at Trump's loss) needs to be muffled, of course, at least until he is summarily evicted from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and kept busy staying out of prison, but hey... that predictable "Red Shift" did keep the GOP's down-ballot defeats to a bare minimum -- and Sleepy Joe's "safe" cabinet picks and other top appointments are clearly looking to be sufficiently filled with Wall Street-friendly hacks and war-hawkish drones to assure a return to whatever "normalcy" can be salvaged from the Trumpocalptic pandemic that has wrought so much devastation to the domestic economy, international alliances and the national morale.

Anonymous said...

We do face a big risk from Joe’s cabinet that he seems likely to crank up the war machine during his tenure.

Joseph Cannon said...

Oh...BULLSHIT, Mr. Anonymous.

There does seem to be a concerted effort to fill all liberal sites with "Both sides are equally corrupt, so let's not defend Biden" bullshit. The bot armies are out in force.