Monday, July 13, 2020

The Big Smear is starting. Plus: Trump's Scottish mystery

I really must write that long-promised piece on the Epstein case. My upcoming essay will put the whole thing in a new light -- if enough people read it.

Right now, we've been given a foretaste of the coming Big Smear. A jewel thief (!!) has come forward, claiming that Ghislaine tried to impress him by showing him videos of celebrities and political figures engaged in sex with minors.

Nearly everyone presumes that Ghislaine and Jeffrey set up a blackmail operation using underaged women. Maybe that's true. After all, Ghislaine almost certainly was (is) a spy. But why is there no mention of this sort of thing in James Patterson's Filthy Rich? Why no mention in the Complaint against Epstein filed by in Florida? Those girls were the believable ones.

If pressed to provide evidence of a kompromat sting involving minors, most of those caught up in the current "moral panic" will point to the famous photo of Prince Andrew with Virginia Roberts/Giuffre. At the time that shot was taken, Giuffre was 19 -- although she originally claimed that she was 17. (Did I just shock you? Wait until you see my piece.) The photo was taken in London, where the age of consent is 16.

(Before you say it: I personally think that 16 is too low. The British government did not ask my opinion when they made the rules.)

Yet millions of people believe that this photo proves that Andrew is a pedophile. A pedophile...! In Patterson's book, the only allegation of a blackmail operation involving minors comes from Virginia -- who provably lied about her age.

Virginia says that she took money to be with the Prince. If so, then she was not a rape victim, at least not on that occasion. She was, um, something else.

Added note: Have you been tracking how this story plays out on YouTube? Right-wing video-producers have been obsessed with Ghislaine Maxwell. The pro-Trump audience expects Something Big -- and most of them seem pretty certain that the Clintons are about to go down. I presume that people within Trump's inner circle already know what Ghislaine will say. If there were any chance that her "revelations" could touch Trump, right-wing propaganda would be filled with attacks on her credibility.

It's in the bag, folks. The Big Smear is a-comin', and it's gonna take down Clinton and/or Biden. What we're seeing right now is preparation -- sort of like the Silver Silver heralding the arrival of Galactus.

Trump's Scottish mystery. I'm reading Seth Abramson's Proof of Conspiracy, which may be the most important volume on Trump yet published. Unfortunately, it has not made much of an impact, probably because the damned thing is just so long and dense. Early on, Abramson details the mysterious finances surrounding that strange golf course in Scotland, into which Trump sunk so much money.

Bottom line: Trump may have used that property to launder funds. Probably Russian funds. Here's the hard-to-read Abramson version -- and feel free to skim, because I'll follow up with a fun-to-read version:
With Trump Aberdeen losing $9.2 million in its first six years of operation—2012 to 2018—and Trump Turnberry losing $39 million from 2014 to 2018, the Atlantic will note in August 2018 that the source of funds for Trump’s planned improvements on these properties is a “mystery.”

Whereas, prior to 2006—around the time Felix Sater became Trump’s fixer for real estate investments in Russia—the historically illiquid Trump denominated himself the “King of Debt,” from that year on he inexplicably finds himself able to pay for all his projects, including his two Scottish golf courses, in cash. The Atlantic reports that “onlookers have struggled to explain both this new [investment] model [for Trump] and Trump’s Scottish projects.” According to Adam Davidson of the New Yorker, Trump’s purchase of Turnberry from the Emiratis is, from a business standpoint, “a bizarre, confounding move that raises questions about the central nature of his business during the years in which he prepared for and then executed his presidential campaign.” Davidson will observe, in a July 2018 report on Turnberry, that Trump’s investment in the golf course “is so much bigger than his other recent projects that it would not be unreasonable to describe the Trump Organization as, at its core, a manager of a money-losing Scottish golf course that is kept afloat with funds from licensing fees and decades-old real-estate projects.”

Davidson’s assessment -- which includes the notation that, even at a staggering discount, the purchase of Turnberry from the Emiratis consumed “more than half of the [Trump Organization’s] available cash” -- is bolstered by the small amount of data publicly available on the Trump Organization’s finances.
As I said: The book is dense.

Now for the fun-to-read version. Adam Davidson, referenced above, recently offered this Twitter thread, which I have translated into conventional prose. His words appear below the asterisks; I shall return after Davidson has had his say.

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Fun project you can do at home for FREE:

Look at public records for Trump’s Aberdeen property: https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/SC292100

Look for “Accounts for a Small Company” start with 22 Aug 2007 and do every year after.

In a spreadsheet or notebook, write down:

Tangible Assets
Creditors (falling due in more than one year)
Cash on hand

Keep going through 2012 and on.

A fascinating story emerges: In the midst of the financial crisis and housing bubble bursting, when Scotland was in economic crisis, golf resorts were struggling, Aberdeen -- in particular -- was in economic free fall due to end of North Sea oil exploration, this one mediocre golf resort outside Aberdeen was appreciating in value by millions every year.

Specifically: Each year, the Trump Org “lent” itself millions, from NY to Scotland, spent it all or did something with it, because they had no cash on hand at end of year. And the self-proclaimed tangible value increased by the same amount as the loan. Even though the actual market tangible value was collapsing.

They did NO work on the grounds for the first several years and then did minimal work afterwards. It starts slowly, but by 2010, we’re talking about real money -- 10s of millions disappearing.

If this feels confusing or hard to follow, just send the Companies House accounts to an accountant in your life. They’ll see at a glance.

Then, do the same for Turnberry, Doonbeg, and -- to the extent you can -- Doral.

Same story. (Though the others are harder work, because of multiple ownership over the years)

Compare the dates and dollar/pound amounts to other projects at the time. What you see is a NY “real estate” company claiming to be spending 100s of millions of dollars on consistently money-losing golf projects in a country overrun with money-losing golf courses.

This is (he says) his own money. But if you look at his public accounts and the data Michael Cohen provided, he doesn’t have this kind of money.

Also, think of all you know about Trump -- does he spend 100s of millions on long-term projects that bring minimal glory?

One possibility: Trump so believes in the long-term value of resort golf in Scotland that he invested every penny he had (including huge amounts of money he never talked about because he’s modest). He signed on to a 20+year plan to work through the slow-moving Scottish planning process to put all his chips on a project that could only return a profit long after he’s dead. And would bring minimal glory.

OR he has a scheme to hide the source and destination of money through a nonsensical business.

I have shown these docs to many accountants, former prosecutors, an FBI agent, and others.

Everyone agrees there is something profound here. Clear evidence of hiding money.

But work needs to be done: whose money? Where does it come from? Where does it go?

Some interesting observations:

- It’s relatively small until 2010 then begins to explode, as if there is more money coming in then they know what to do with.

- He met Anar Mammadov in 2010. He uses golf to, um, process his wealth.

- Money goes up, more in 2014.

- He met Agalarovs in 2013. They use golf to, um, process their wealth.

We only know this much because of UK transparency laws. Similar pattern at Doral, but US is much worse on transparency.

All in all, the picture is clear: Trump was at his heights of fame but his lows of business. After a career of never using his own money, he all of a sudden starts spending 100s of millions in money-losing golf resorts in nonsensical ways.

THIS is the story.

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Cannon here.  Adding to the mystery is the fact that Trump intends to spend many millions more in Scotland. See here and here. The Scottish government has taken note of the financial oddness surrounding this Trump investment, and they plan to investigate him, using a mechanism known as an "unexplained wealth order."
Patrick Harvie MSP, co-leader of the Scottish Greens, said there were reasonable grounds for suspecting that the US president, or people he is connected with, “have been involved in serious crime.”

He has called on ministers to apply to the Court of Session to seek answers as to how Mr Trump’s bankrolled his multimillion acquisitions of land and property in his mother’s homeland.
Mr Harvie, an avowed critic of Mr Trump and his administration, said that an UWO was “designed precisely for these kinds of situations.”

He told MSPs: “Trump’s known sources of income do not explain where the money came from in these huge cash transactions. There are reasonable grounds for suspecting that his lawfully obtained income was insufficient.

“Trump is a politically exposed person in terms of the law, and there are reasonable grounds for suspecting that he, or people he is connected with, have been involved in serious crime. Some of them have pleaded guilty.”
Thanks to Outlander, Americans have become fascinated with all things Scottish. My kilted friends: History will thank you if you can aid in the current battle against corruption and fascism.

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