Wednesday, February 12, 2020

It ain't over. It has barely begun.

The chart above shows who won what throughout the 1992 primaries. Bill Clinton didn't score a single victory until the sixth race (in Georgia), and didn't score a big victory until South Carolina, the twelfth race. Granted, few saw much reason to campaign in Iowa against favorite son Tom Harkin. Still, these results tell us that we have little reason to consider our two "frontrunners" -- Pete and Bernie -- to be permanent fixtures.

Here's another tweet which may change your perspective on this race:

Speaking as a Liz fan, it pisses me off to be rooting against the progressive lane. National Health Insurance would make me very happy. A Warren presidency would make me extremely happy.

But the important thing is to retain some chance of defeating Donald Trump -- which means that we must do everything we can to prevent a sure loser like Bernie from attaining the nomination. If Trump wins, he'll pick the next two or three Supreme Court Justices, and where will we be then? A Trumpist Court will last long after Donnie himself has gone off to patronize the great Mickey D's in the ninth circle of Dis.
There is also the distinct possibility of a brokered convention, especially if Bloomberg stays in until the end. What would happen then? I like to think that perhaps someone, not now a candidate, would give a James Garfield type speech and get the nomination.
If Biden should somehow drop out, which I doubt, the election is over. Trump will be re-elected. The rest of the candidates can't win anything nationally, and that includes Amy Klobuchar, who is more a VP candidate than a presidential one.

Warren will be out after Super Tuesday. She is already in decline. She is a poor speaker and debater, and she has been caught in a couple of lies. She isn't as bad as Sanders, but the lies are not helping her (why she left teaching, for example, was a flagrant lie when she claimed she was non-renewed or fired because of her pregnancy when in fact she voluntarily left).

It angered me that the Democratic field was so cluttered with candidates who can't win the general. Only Biden and Klobuchar on one ticket, have any chance at all in the general.

To follow up, fivethirtyeight says that a contested convention is likely and getting likelier.
The question is, in a contested convention, who wins and you do you like? As far as Bernie and Corbyn go, Corbyn's personal negatives were astronomical by any measure. Bernie's aren't nearly as bad, but they could get much worse once the negative campaigning starts. Of course, the same with just about any candidate. The important thing for Democrats is to refrain from demanding ideological purity and to stop judging candidates for actions taken years by today's standards.
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