Toward a theory of Flynn

Well, I watched it happen in real time -- on teevee, that is; I was not in court. But I'm still not sure what happened or why it happened.

One thing seems certain: The recent right-wing propaganda campaign to paint FBI agents as anti-Flynn conspirators -- a campaign still endorsed by the luxuriously disingenuous Sarah Sanders -- has backfired. The judge put Flynn under oath and asked him if he knew that lying to the FBI was a crime. Flynn answered yes. The judge asked if the lawyers intended to offer any kind of defense, and they said no.

At that moment, a skyscraper of propaganda crumbled to the ground. The place for a defense is in the courtroom, not in the media.

This "Flynn as victim of the Deep State" bullshit was designed for the hillbillies who consider Alex Jones a genius. It was never going to work on non-hillbillies. Today, the propaganda had the opposite of the intended effect.

If any judge would be open to an "entrapment" argument, Judge Sullivan is the one. He has a rep as someone keen to denounce governmental misconduct. But Sullivan was having none of it.

He essentially accused Flynn of treason: "You sold your country out." He pointed to the flag and said that Flynn had betrayed it. He strongly implied that the General was guilty of far worse crimes than lying to the FBI. He said that he was disgusted. He made it quite clear that Flynn would go to prison if sentence was passed this day.  One gets the impression that Flynn might have gone in for a stay substantially longer than six months.

But then the judge offered Flynn a reprieve -- and, after a suspenseful period of behind-the-scenes discussion, Flynn's lawyers took the offer. There will be another hearing 90 days from now, at which time the judge will make his determination based on further cooperation with Mueller.

That's when my eyes bugged out and my jaw hit the floor, the way eyes and jaws did in those old Tex Avery cartoons. Wait. Wait. What the HELL...?

Did not Robert Mueller say that his office had interviewed Flynn 19 times? Did not Mueller recommend probation for Flynn, based on Flynn's extensive cooperation? Would Mueller have made such a recommendation if Flynn had been anything other than completely forthcoming and helpful?

Mueller said: He has been cooperating with us.

The judge said: Flynn, you better start cooperating!

And I said: What the eff is going ON here...?

We know that Mueller's office has secretly communicated with the judge. Only Mueller and the judge know what was in that communication.

Only one conclusion seems possible: Despite Mueller's assurances, Flynn has not finked on Trump. Flynn still has a story to tell, a story he has not yet told during any of those 19 meetings.

If the situation were otherwise, Flynn would be meeting his new cell mates right now. Simple as that.

Dude's hiding something. Something big.

What other theory explains the deal made today? What other theory explains why both the White House and the right-wing propaganda machine continue to defend Flynn so aggressively while damning Cohen so vehemently? What other theory explains why Michael Flynn Jr.'s twitter feed remains a toxic dump filled with MAGA madness?

(As my readers know, I've long considered that feed a "tell." If and when the senior Flynn really flips, the junior Flynn will sing a different song. At this writing, Junior has yet to issue a response to this day's events.)

During that tense interlude when it seemed as though Flynn's lawyers might not take the deal, a thought occurred to me: Perhaps the overall plan is for Flynn to receive a relatively tough sentence, followed by a pardon. Perhaps this is the moment when Trump finally makes it clear that he will pardon all non-"rats." 

I would not be surprised to learn that Flynn's lawyers conferred with Team Trump behind the scenes. I would not be surprised to learn that the lawyers were told "A pardon? Not today. Too much heat."

So they took the deal. Nothing mysterious about that decision. Here's the mystery:

Why is Mueller pretending that Flynn has flipped when clearly he has not?

It's a maddening conundrum, and I don't yet have an explanatory scenario. Instead of a proper theory, all I can give you is a creative writing exercise. Best I can do at the moment.

Mueller has not charged Flynn with every possible offense, so it seems possible that he intended to seek further charges at a later date. Perhaps the FBI has a warrant to eavesdrop on Flynn's communications. Perhaps Mueller hopes that Flynn, thinking that the heat was off,  would say something revealing and incriminating while talking to Trump on the phone.

Far-fetched? Yeah, I don't buy it either.  I never feel comfortable with claims that "[Fill in the blank] is playing 11-dimensional chess."

My gut tells me that that instantly-infamous National Enquirer cover (reproduced to the right of these words) may be the key to this mystery. At the time Flynn was fired, the Trumpers initiated a plan to fix all the blame for Russiagate on Michael Flynn. He was the designated fall guy. The message: Yes, there was collusion -- and Flynn was the one who colluded. Trump had nothing to do with it. For a brief moment, the Trumpers decided to go with that narrative. The narrative changed when Flynn signaled that he would toe the Trumpian line.

"Remember when Michael Flynn was a traitor?" writes a Trumpian propagandist in Bloomberg. What the propagandists want you to forget is that the main publication calling Flynn a traitor was the National Enquirer. The tabloid made this claim at a time when (as we now know) AMI was coordinating with Jared Kushner.

That's important. Something big was happening just beneath the surface.

Sworn in. Bmaz on the Emptywheel site makes an interesting catch: Flynn was sworn in today, even though defendants are not usually sworn in when they are sentenced. Why was Flynn placed under oath? Obviously, to insure that he spoke under oath when he told the court that he knew -- he always knew -- that lying to the FBI was a crime.

I don't think that the judge was laying a "perjury trap," as Bmaz suggests. But it does seem clear that the "Flynn was railroaded" propaganda campaign really, really pissed off Judge Sullivan, who set out to stop that nonsense once and for all. Absent that propaganda campaign, Sullivan might have gone along with Mueller's recommendation. Flynn would be free and in the clear.

The law of unintended consequences sure is a bitch, innit?

Despite Sullivan's efforts, the propaganda campaign will continue. These campaigns are intended not to sway judges but to sway the conspiracy-crazed rednecks who love Trump.