A lot of people missed the importance of this interview with Irvin Nathan, who spearheaded a successful effort to subpoena information from the Bush White House.
The hard truth seeps out at the very end. Any subpoena battle will be fought in court, and a 2019 version of that battle won't resemble what occurred in 2008. Trump will fight back, and he'll take it all the way to the Supreme Court.
Basically, Trump has already won. He effectively owns the Supreme Court. If he defies a subpoena, what of it? The Justice Department won't enforce a lower court's ruling, and the Senate will protect Trump to the bitter end. Besides, pursuing a subpoena through the courts is a process which could take two years (as Nathan admits).
In other words, Trump is set. For the rest of his term, he can't be touched.
Many liberal talking heads have offered overly-optimistic rah-rah about the ability of Congress to hold Trump accountable. As you know, I hate optimism. An optimist is someone who assures a one-legged hobo that if he hops high enough, he can touch the moon. An optimist is someone who tells Anne Frank "Chin up!" as she is being dragged off to the camp. Optimism is cruelty. Optimism is sadism.
So let's put optimism aside and look at the situation realistically. Since the Trump administration operates outside the rule of law, Congress will have to find some way to be effective without subpoena power. Is that possible?
Despite the November victory, things still look bleaker than most within the Resistance would care to admit. Yet all is not lost. Pessimist that I am, even I have limits.
The news on the Michael Cohen front is heartening, no doubt about it. The recent interview with Cohen's friend Donny Deutsch (embedded) below brought a smile to my face. It'll probably cheer you up as well, if you've not seen it already.
Many have opined as to why Cohen switched loyalties, yet nobody has mentioned what I take to be the real reason: Cohen's wife is also in some legal jeopardy (or so I've read) and may face state charges -- placing her beyond Trump's ability to pardon. Remember, the big change started when Cohen announced that he would "do the right thing for my family."
Speaking of state charges: Have you noticed those "PragerU" propaganda ads on YouTube? A recent one is all about removing any state's ability to prosecute someone for a crime that might also fall within federal jurisdiction. All of a sudden, the right is now very exercised about this new definition of double jeopardy. Gee, I wonder what prompted the Prager People to become concerned about that topic at this moment? Y'think it might have something with a guy named Manafort?
Back to Cohen: Here's his Sentencing Submission. Allow me to toot my own horn for a moment: On August 22, I wrote that "Michael Cohen has been working with Mueller in secret for a while now." Frankly, this was conjecture, presented at a time when everyone was asking "Will he cooperate?"
The Sentencing Submission contains a passage which proves that my speculation was far from far-fetched:
In the context of this raw, full-bore attack by the most powerful person in the United States, Michael, formerly a confidante and adviser to Mr. Trump, resolved to cooperate, and voluntarily took the first steps toward doing so even before he was charged in this District. See Nov. 28, 2018 Plea Agr. at 8 (proffer agreement with SCO first executed on August 7, 2018).So. The proffer came on August 7. I was right. There was communication between Cohen and Mueller at that time.
I think of Cohen and I smile. But on all other fronts, it seems likely that Trump can pardon his way out of this mess. I'm still predicting that he will deep-six Mueller when the time is right.
The Twitter feed of Michael Flynn Jr. provides an excellent "canary in the coal mine." (I don't visit daily, but I try to pop by weekly.) If that feed offers any hint of "Ruh Roh! The jig's up!" -- then and only then will I presume that Trump is in real trouble.
Until such time, we should never forget that the Orange Oaf holds a formidable hand. Trump controls the power to pardon. He controls the Supreme Court. He controls the Justice Department. He controls this country's most powerful propaganda engine. He is aided by the intelligence apparat of Russia as well as a huge faction of American intelligence, not to mention British intelligence. (It's hard to determine where MI6 ends and Cambridge Analytica -- or whatever they're calling themselves now -- begins.)
Congress? Congress is a problem, but perhaps not an insurmountable one. The spooks have tried to gather kompromat on everyone, and Putin has unlimited funds for bribes.
If any male Dem in Congress proves too ornery, he can always be MeTooed. After the Avenatti smear, all rational people now understand that MeToo is not a genuine movement; it's just another Republican tactic. I've already seen scattered hints on Twitter that there are plans in the works to bring down Schiff using the MeToo gimmick.
All in all, I'm betting on a Trump victory. Don't buy into the triumphalist guff on MSNBC.
5 comments:
It's a given Trump won't be impeached, Senate republicans have more to fear from the Teatrumps than voters sick of the Great White Dope's antics.
Thanks to gun toting NRA loons impeachment would tear the United States apart.
The best America can hope for is Trump pulls a Nixon and the Inbred Ferret pardons the family. I could see a deal being worked that lets Trump keep some of his property and serves no prison sentence in exchange for going away.
If none of the above House Democrats can't let voters forget between now and 2020 when Trump loses the White House.
Actually the biggest impediment to ridding ourselves of Trump and his sycophants in the House and Senate isn't the courts or Intel agencies but news media outlets like the New York Times and Washington Post.
Facebook/Cambridge Analytica/Russia might have sowed the seeds of Hillary's destruction but the print and broadcast news media fertilized the ground.
The House could and should hold impeachment hearings on Justice Kavanaugh and impeach the liar. Maybe he would be convicted, not for being a preppy jagoff, but for lying to the Senate every time he testified there.
I wish, Aymral. Impeachment may, in fact, be possible, though it is not terribly likely. But conviction requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate, and that just won't happen.
However, Kavanaugh CAN be charged with perjury. The problem is that Trump controls the Justice Department.
If a genuine blue wave puts Dems in charge in 2020, then certain possibilities open up. The statute of limitations is five years. If Kavanaugh were actually convicted of perjury -- rather than just accused -- then that two-thirds majority in the Senate might become possible.
Personally, I think Congress should have found some mechanism to interrogate Kavanaugh in Maryland. There is NO statute of limitations in this state on...well, pretty much everything. Which has me wondering: Didn't the FBI interview the guy? And where, exactly, was the interview conducted?
No no no no no waiting! Begin(pre)impeachment hearings on Kavanahug before Valentine's Day. The porny media will also be (re)covering the Epstein thing by then. At Kavanaugh's trial in the Senate, the criminal facts from House testimony will be too clear for acquittal.
Two very important things Congress will comprehend: Kavanaugh is an accidental justice because Trump is an accidental president, and Kavanaugh will lose his pension and free AA coverage. Had he not been confirmed, owing to his being a lying jagoff, he would still have had his lifetime appointment. Therefore, it's good that he was confirmed so he can be destroyed.
I want the House to reveal the ratfucking done by the Senate Judiciary Committee chair and his ratlickers. Say what you will, those Republican senators deserve to be unmasked.
Listen again to Schumer's speech when the full Senate was about to vote on Kavanaugh's nomination: he says if you want to impeach Kavanaugh, vote that way on November 6.
Last, the House can instill 'optimism' for the voting franchise by ruining Kavanaugh in front of the electorate. I'll bet that when Kavanaugh learns that the HJC will begin to investigate, he retires to save his pension, making a deal that prevents being charged with pergury.
"The hard truth seeps out at the very end. Any subpoena battle will be fought in court, and a 2019 version of that battle won't resemble what occurred in 2008. Trump will fight back, and he'll take it all the way to the Supreme Court.
Basically, Trump has already won. He effectively owns the Supreme Court. If he defies a subpoena, what of it? The Justice Department won't enforce a lower court's ruling, and the Senate will protect Trump to the bitter end. Besides, pursuing a subpoena through the courts is a process could take two years (as Nathan admits)."
Commentary like this is why I come back here. I have no idea why more people aren't pointing out that Trump can just delay or outright defy subpoenas so that little real oversight is done as it all gets tied up in the courts. And where will this ultimately end up? At his buddy Kavanaugh's court.
Was just thinking earlier today that if any male wins the Democratic nomination, he will get the #MeToo treatment. Heck, it still may happen to Beto even if he doesn't win the nomination as he is considered a rising star that must be stopped.
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