The Kavanaugh case and the McAlpine gambit (UPDATED: Is there another suspect?)

If and when the Big Plot Twist occurs in the current Kavanaugh melodrama, nobody will give me credit for predicting it.

Everyone (on both the right and the left) has been brainwashed to accept only the current framing: Either 1. Christine Blasey Ford is telling the truth or 2. She is party to an Evil Dem conspiracy.

I have offered a third option. I posit that Blasey Ford has been cajoled or manipulated into pressing a false charge, with the ultimate goal of helping Trump.

If you dare to consider that possibility, people will think you're from Mars.

In my scenario, the Big Plot Twist would be a classic example of the "McAlpine gambit," as described in many, many previous posts. Guess we'll have to do it again.

The following quotation comes from a book about Machiavelli by Lord Alistair McAlpine, friend to Margaret Thatcher. (The book is about using Machiavellian tactics in the modern business world.)

First, create a situation where you are wrongly accused. Then, at a convenient moment, arrange for the false accusation to be shown to be false beyond all doubt. Those who have made accusations against both the company and its management become discredited. Further accusations will then be treated with great suspicion.

Lord McAlpine's wording was very simple. MY wording has been very simple.

Yet my readers still insist on misunderstanding me. Nobody gets me.

In part, this is because the Kavanaugh controversy brings us into the realm of sex, and sex is the mind-killer. Not fear: Sex. Dune got it wrong. Fear often clarifies a complicated situation; sex never does.

Feminists cannot permit themselves to consider this forbidden concept -- that Christine Blasey Ford might be a witting participant in a McAlpine gambit which has the ultimate goal of aiding Trump.

Thoughtcrime! Women are holy. Women are sacred. Even when placed under duress or offered a large reward, women never lie. Never! Only a horrible sexist rape-apologist Penismonster would consider such a possibility.

And yet, we have this note from one of my readers (a female reader, I must point out):

Chatter on Disqus is there's someone coming forward to say "She's mistaken, I'm the guy who molested her at that party."

I have not seen this chatter. If anyone out there can cite an example, please forward a link.

The best evidence for my theory -- and really, the only evidence any thinking person should need -- is summarized by this headline: "Aides quietly stunned by Trump's respectful handling of Kavanaugh accuser."

That "respectful handling" makes sense only if we're dealing with a McAlpine Gambit.

"Why would I attack her?" Trump asked, according to two sources with knowledge of his remarks.

Rather than lashing out in anger or defensiveness, Trump said Monday he'd like to "see a complete process."

"I'd like everybody to be very happy. Most importantly, I want the American people to be happy, because they're getting somebody that is great," he said.

Kellyanne Conway was the first White House official to appear on television after Ford came forward publicly. During an appearance on Fox News, Conway said Kavanaugh's accuser should testify.

"This woman should not be insulted and she should not be ignored," Conway said. "I think the Senate is headed to a reasonable approach in that it seems to be allowing this woman to be heard in sworn testimony, allowing Judge Kavanaugh to be heard in sworn testimony."

This next paragraph has "McAlpine gambit" written all over it. (Trump habitually gives away too much.)

He has only referenced the Supreme Court once in Twitter this week — tweeting shortly before midnight Tuesday: "The Supreme Court is one of the main reasons I got elected President. I hope Republican Voters, and others, are watching, and studying, the Democrats Playbook.

"Playbook." That word is key. He knows that, once the Big Plot Twist hits, he'll be able to portray all Democrats as conspirators.

Yes, I could be wrong. Nevertheless, I strongly suspect that Blasey Ford is a witting participant in a pro-Trump plot to make all Dems look bad. If she were legit, Trump would have reacted in his usual fashion -- insults, slams, smears, not-so-veiled threats. Trump is Trump. If he acts non-Trumpy, he must have a hidden reason.

Right now, Kavanaugh is the first "below water" Supreme Court nominee, according to an NBC/WSJ poll. Interestingly, support from Republicans has increased since the attempted rape allegation became public. Republicans love to assume what I call the "false underdog" position. If and when the Big Plot Twist hits, we are never going to hear the end of it.

One major purpose of such a scheme would be to justify the "false underdog" narrative, and to cement that narrative in the minds of independents. The message may be summarized thus:

Democrats are all evil conspirators. Conservatives are always the victims of conspiracy, never the perpetrators.

That's the narrative which the GOP propagandists keep pushing every minute of every hour of every day. Trump's survival depends on convincing the country that this narrative reflects reality.

When the Big Plot Twist hits, Kavanaugh will suddenly be extremely popular, and Trump will have "evidence" to back his claim that the Mueller investigation is a witch hunt.

Y'know what? I bet that some of you still refuse to comprehend what I'm saying. Even though I've used very simple language, and even though a reasonably-bright eight-year-old should be able to comprehend how the McAlpine Gambit works, some of you will insist on believing that I said something other than what I actually said. Sex is the mind-killer.

If I have any feminist readers left, they probably now want to give me the Familiar Lecture. Something like this:

"WOMEN CARE, MEN SHOULD TOO. Rape and sexual assault are the most underreported crimes in our nation. Worldwide, one in three women experience some sexual violence in their lifetime, according to the World Health Organization. FEAR keeps them from coming forward.

That's what you want to say to me, right? Right?

The McAlpine Gambit works every time, thanks to ultra-predictable ninnies like you.

Update: While I wrote the above, a conservative bigwig named Ed Whelan published an initially persuasive argument that any victimization of Blasey Ford was the fault of another young man entirely. Josh Marshall's response:

I’m not even sure how to convey the argument. It involves a series of logical (I mean this in the technical sense, not saying they make sense) surmises, the geography of where different students lived and the floor plan of a particular house in the town in question. The argument is highly, highly speculative to put it mildly and I would say quite likely libelous. You can read the thread here.

The point I want to make clear is that the author, Ed Whelan, is not some random on Twitter. He’s a big deal in conservative legal circles. This development is shocking on many, many levels.

A man like that would think twice before committing potential libel. And to be honest, Marshall's wording reeks of desperation. As I said above: Sex is the mind-killer.

The Whelan scenario does not truly align with my McAlpine Gambit theory, since mistaken identity and false accusation are two different things, although the concepts do bear a certain kinship. That said, and contrary to Marshall, I do not consider Whelan's argument easy to dismiss. The fact that Whelan was able to secure the floor plan of that house and interior photos -- along with other pieces of hard-to-obtain evidence -- tells me that his tweets were probably a team effort.

Something is going on behind the scenes. I do not like the smell of this. Even if my "McAlpine" theory proves wrong-headed, I remain convinced that something hidden, something sneaky, lies behind this melodrama. We're about to get clobbered.