Why conflict with Iran is more likely than war with North Korea

This Daily Kos post ends with a damned good paragraph...

It [military confrontation with Iran short of all-out war] would also bring other benefits for Trump. Any military activity in the Straits of Hormuz will invalidate the underwriting of insurance for the shippers and disrupt 40% of the worlds freely traded oil. Oil prices would go up and bring immediate relief to Russia, OPEC (especially Saudi Arabia who is having an inconvenient debt crises) and the petroleum base of the Republican Party.

That's why the Trumpers keep decrying the Iran deal, which was popular and which served our interests. From the NYT published in February of 2012:

For Russian oil companies like Rosneft and Lukoil and the Russian-British joint venture TNK-BP, the international tensions that began over Iran’s nuclear development program last autumn have meant a windfall. Analysts estimate that Iran jitters have added $5 to $15 a barrel to the global price of oil, which means an extra $35 million to $105 million a day for the Russian industry. And the taxes the Russian government has received from those sales have been a political windfall for Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin as he campaigns to return as Russia’s president. The extra money has helped further subsidize domestic energy consumption, tamping down inflation.

“It’s good for Putin,” Mr. Mercer said. “In the United States, when oil prices go up, the president’s ratings go down. In Russia, it’s the opposite.”

But Russia has a particular advantage: a pipeline system that can supply Iran’s traditional customers in both Europe and Asia.

It is true that Obama's treaty with Iran opened the path for foreign companies, including Rosneft, to come into Iran and develop the oil fields further. But Putin has to think short term, since he faces election in 2018. He's sure to win, of course, but a surge in popularity will solidify that win.

Another likely winner: Trump himself. Remember the Steele dossier?

I'd like them to pay special attention to the dossier's claim that 19 percent of Rozneft (the Russian oil company) would be sold to Trump in exchange for the lifting of sanctions on Russia -- an impeachable act of bribery, if the allegation is true. As discussed earlier, the dossier proved to be prophetic: 19.5 percent of Rozneft was sold to mysterious offshore parties.

Bud. Back in March, Dallas Morning News report Seth Abramson offered an important series of tweets which I translated into normal prose. Abramson researched that "19.5 percent" business as far as anyone has ever taken it:

On April 21, 48 hours after clinching, Trump announced the first major foreign policy address of his life. It was scheduled for April 27. The speech, arranged by Jared Kushner in mid-March, was to be hosted by the Center for the National Interest, a conservative think tank. The Center is widely known to have "ties to the Russian regime of President Vladimir Putin," per Politico.

The speech was slated to be at the National Press Club, an august venue with a long history of staging secure events with large crowds. Less than 24 hours before the speech, it was cancelled. The Trump campaign (i.e., Manafort) declared the venue was too small and unsafe.

So Manafort moved the event to the Mayflower Hotel: a smaller, less secure site. The decision confirmed the campaign's excuses were lies. The two things the Mayflower had that the NPC didn't were (a) 581 private rooms for private meetings, and (b) restricted, VIP-only areas. The latter was important because Manafort wanted Trump to hold an intimate, 24-person cocktail hour in the Mayflower's VIP Senate Room.

Among the 24 at the event: Trump, CNI event coordinator Heilbrunn, Jeff Sessions, Kushner, Lewandowski, Manafort, and four ambassadors. Another VIP at the event was Iran-Contra figure Bud McFarlane, one of America's chief advocates for a bargain with Russia on oil access.

The four ambassadors were the only four ambassadors in the world (out of 195 total) that the Putin-linked CNI had invited to the event.

The biggest oil deal in Russia's history occurred in December of 2016. It involved the coordination of entities from three countries. Individuals from those three countries -- RUSSIA, ITALY, and SINGAPORE -- negotiated the sale of 19.5% of Russia's state oil company, Rosneft.

Some of you will recall that Bud McFarlane tried to kill himself as the Iran-Contra scandal began. His later testimony to Congress was memorably soporific; he sounded like HAL the computer singing "Daisy." Strange man. Now he has links going all over the damned place. This WP piece from 2013 reveals his connections to Qatar and his rather bizarre activities on behalf of Sudan. (He was investigated by the FBI but found innocent of any wrongdoing.)

McFarlane is also part of something called the Fuel Freedom Foundation, which promotes ending our dependence on fossil fuels. According to this group, the oil monopoly hides the fact that automobiles can be easily modified to run on alternative sources of energy.

All of this sounds laudable enough, although the looming presence of James Woolsey in this group forces me to wonder if something else may be afoot. Woolsey was a big Trump supporter who quit the transition team in a rather mysterious contretemps.

Bud's activities are even more mysterious. How can the same man be advocating for oil giants Russia and Qatar while simultaneously advocating an end to fossil fuel dependence? It don't add up!

Wanna see something cute? Take a look at Wikipedia's page on the Fuel Freedom Foundation:

The foundation's Board of Advisors includes former CIA Director R. James Woolsey, Jr., former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson,[5] former president of the Rockefeller Foundation Peter Goldmark,[6] former dean of the University of Colorado's Graduate School of Public Policy Marshall Kaplan,[7] former president of Shell Oil Company John Hofmeister[8] and Co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security Gal Luft.[9] The CEO is Joseph A. Cannon.

No relation, I assure you.