Updates

Paddock's motives. In the preceding post, I speculated that Steve Paddock might have been motivated by a personal animosity toward Brian O'Connell ("BOC"), the impresario who heads up the Route 91 Harvest Festival as well as a number of similar ventures. That theory may or may not have to go into rewrite: The Daily Beast published a piece which argues -- not altogether convincingly -- that Paddock may have originally targeted an outdoor concert featuring Chance the Rapper.

Stephen Paddock rented multiple condos overlooking the annual Life Is Beautiful Festival, which this year was headlined by Lorde and Chance the Rapper, said the source, who is not directly involved in the investigation but has been briefed on its progress.

In an effort to confirm the report, The Daily Beast visited the Ogden, a 21-story luxury condominium tower with a line of sight to the concert-grounds.

“We're not in a position to confirm or deny anything about Mr. Paddock's dealings. I suggest you contact Metro [police]. As you know this is an on going investigation,” said Melissa Warren, public affairs officer for Fais Foley Warren, owner of the Ogden.

BOC had no involvement (that I can discern) with that event. If Paddock did intend to do harm there, then obviously he was motivated by a more generalized desire to commit mayhem, as opposed to a desire to injure Mr. O'Connell's livelihood. On the other hand, Paddock may have had other reasons for wanting to rent at the Ogden.

Nevertheless, there is a growing understanding that Paddock's life and livelihood simply do not make sense. In my previous piece, I argued that (despite what we've read in various reports) neither Paddock nor anyone else has ever played video poker professionally, since the odds always favor the House. The only sure way to make money from video poker is to write a book titled "How to Win at Video Poker."

But real poker -- against human opponents -- is a game of skill. Yesterday, Josh Marshall said much the same thing:

The Washington Post says “He liked to bet big, wagering tens of thousands of dollars in a sitting. He owned homes in four states but preferred staying in casino hotels, sometimes for weeks at a time, as he worked the gambling machines.” Card counters and professional card players can win over time at casinos. But most people don’t. And it doesn’t sound like Paddock did the kind of gambling where you can win, over time.

There’s also this new AP story which seems to suggest he hadn’t been employed in almost thirty years. According to this timeline, he worked for the post office from 1976 to 1978. He graduated college in 1977. He worked as an IRS agent from 1978 to 1984. He then worked for a defense auditing job for a year and a half. The AP also says he “worked for a defense contractor in the late 1980s.”

I haven’t seen any specific statement that he was not employed for the last 25 to 30 years. That Post article I mentioned above says that family members say he was worth more than $2 million, that “he made a small fortune from real estate deals and a business that he and Eric Paddock sold off.”

Here’s the thing though, the Post describes a gambling habit that seems hard to reconcile with being worth just two million dollars.

There are certain games with an element of skill where you can win. But on machines? That doesn’t sound right to me. Casinos roll out the red carpet for very rich people who like to gamble for high stakes. It sounds like Paddock was one of those people. But again, I think you need to be worth a lot more than $2 million to gamble like that for a long time.

Read through that Post article it sounds like Paddock gambled for high stakes a lot. He also had multiple residential properties around the country. There is apparently a huge amount of travel. As I said, this probably doesn’t have an immediate connection to the crime. And regardless of what Paddock did or how he got his money, it won’t bring anyone back to life. But something pretty substantial seems missing from this story.

Sorry to quote at such length, but these words speak to my own concerns. We're not being told the full truth about Stephen Paddock.

But that doesn't mean I have any tolerance for the nonsense spewed by professional liars like Alex Jones. We now have video of what the room looked like. Hey, Alex -- where's the "Antifa literature" which your unnamed source said was all over the place? Does Antifa actually produce any literature? Does any political group do that sort of thing in the digital age?

Trump speaks! This presidency has normalized idiocy. If any previous president had said such ridiculous things while touring a disaster zone, the country would be discussing his marble-mouthed statements throughout the next week -- perhaps the next month. But with Trump, stupid remarks = situation normal. He will always react with boorishness, thoughtlessness, egomania and incomprehensibility. For Donald Trump, yesterday's exercise in absurdity was simply another Tuesday.

I honestly don't think he meant to imply that Hurricane Maria was not the "real" disaster that Katrina was. But that's Trump for you: Whenever he tries to talk, all the words come out misspelled. Trump is the new Palin. His intended meaning becomes hopelessly lost as garbled half-sentences collide and explode.

Why didn't he realize that this was not the occasion for endless self-praise? Trump, not Mayor Cruz, is the one who politicized disaster. Trump makes everything about him.

It's the opposite of empathy. Instead of mourning with and for those who lost their lives, Trump is using those who lost their lives as a way to make a broader argument that the media's criticism of him is unfair and biased.

See, I told you I was doing a great job, Trump was saying. Everyone here thinks so! Me, me, me, me.

Trump would shout "Me me me me" in the face of the Apocalypse itself. Think of the most self-absorbed person you've ever met: That guy's narcissism compares to Trump's narcissism the way orange juice compares to orange juice concentrate.

Trump must know that people consider him an egomaniac. He must understand that a display of humility, even fake humility, would help his cause. We're not asking for much: Just the occasional "I'm sorry." The occasional "Perhaps I'm wrong." The occasional self-deprecatory joke. Other presidents have offered as much. Trump must know that these small stylistic touches would make him less despised -- would, in fact, go a long ways toward repairing his image.

But he can't do it. His brain is wired the way it is wired, and nothing can change it.