Thursday, November 03, 2016

Troubling news

The Clinton firewall is crumbling.

Trump is (very) slightly ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire, according to a poll by a CBS affiliate (the kind of poll you'd consider quite credible if it delivered good news). Also here.

(Added note: This poll, rated A- by Nate Silver, puts Trump ahead by 1)

Another CBS affiliate puts Trump ahead by three points in Virginia. This one's a major shocker.
“Both candidates continue to be shackled to high unfavorable ratings, Trump’s numbers went down eight points (54 percent) while Clinton’s numbers went up three points (57 percent) from a CPP poll conducted just one month ago.”

All of this comes after a CPP poll in early October revealed Clinton had a 12 point lead (45-33 percent) among likely voters. This is the first time Clinton has trailed in the CPP polls this year.
Trump has expanded his lead in Nevada, according to CNN/ORC.

This is not one of those fly-by-night freaky-deaky easy-sleazy outlier polls. Nate Silver rates CNN/ORC an A-. 

I'm not going to say "She's dead, Jim" until experts like Nate Silver and Larry Sabato weigh in on these latest numbers. But there's no denying that this looks bad. I expect my readers not to behave like the ostriches on the big Dem websites who reflexively cry "concern troll" if anyone dares to mention unpleasant news.

The good news: The same CNN/ORC poll has Clinton up by two in Florida.

If Clinton can hold onto Florida -- and if the rest of the firewall stays in place -- Hillary can lose North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada and Colorado. By my math (which you should double-check, since I didn't use a calculator), she would still have 276 electoral votes even if all of those other states went bye-bye. Hell, she could even lose New Mexico or Maine. Basically, we are talking about something much like the Al Gore/John Kerry map to victory, if the Supreme Court had permitted a full recount in Florida in 2000, and if the voting machines had behaved themselves in Ohio in 2004.

I don't know about you, but I get a sick feeling in my stomach when I think about this election being decided by Florida. The stench of 2000 still lingers in the nostrils. In that state, Donald Trump and his pals know where all the bodies are buried.

The hard truth is this: As her national numbers go down, Clinton's strength in the individual states has started to collapse. Generals always prepare to fight the last war, and Clinton's generals seem to have prepared for a 2012-style race. In my view, we are living through the first election not fought state-by-state; instead, the battle is being waged in all 50 states simultaneously -- on Facebook

Before you say it: Yes, I know that the NH and VA polls mentioned above are not the only polls. We must pray for better numbers from other sources. I find it particularly hard to believe that VA has gone pink, since all other polling gives Hillary the lead in that state.

If there really is an anti-Trump "November Surprise" in the offing -- let's have it NOW NOW NOW.

Update: Nate Silver just put NC and FL in pink.


Michael said...

I think you'll drive yourself crazy watching this late polls. They will be all over the board. One reason is that there's crazy news coming out every single day. The polls are probably overlysensitive to the news of the day, and not so reflective of what the voter will do when they finally get to the voting booth.

Perhaps an even bigger issue is that you have candidates who are so awful that the voters are too afraid or embarrassed to say who they will actually support. And by the way, how many women are afraid to admit they'll give their votes to Hillary WITHIN EARSHOT of their CRAZY TRUMPIST husbands or boyfriends? I could see Hillary winning by the biggest landslide of the century once these secret supporters get into the booth and make their true feelings known.

Or maybe not. Who knows.

b said...

If there's no overall majority (NOM) in the electoral college, the 12th amendment requires that the House of Representatives choose the president by voting by states. What happens if a state delegation is tied?

Realistically, NOM can happen in two ways: a 269-269 tie, or some of the electors vote for McMullin and neither Clinton nor Trump reaches 270. Nate Silver rates the probability of a tie at 0.5% and the overall probability of NOM at 1.2%. If McMullin wins Utah he'll get six electors, and some Mormons believe that if he loses he may still get votes in the EC from some of Utah's Republicans.

Could Joseph Smith's followers get into the picture? I mean if someone wants the US to look completely crazy...

For me the most "wow" scenario will be if the Jesuits push Tim Kaine into the Oval Office. Don't rule it out. No pope had ever resigned the papal throne before Joseph Ratzinger did precisely that, paving the way for Jorge Bergoglio to take over. A lot of effort has been put into portraying Hillary Clinton as if she's a major figure in a kind of diabolical shadow government. (She doesn't deserve that reputation. Giulio Andreotti did deserve it, but didn't get it.)

One has to view things from the ~KGB's point of view. What course of events causes most instability, the deepest fractures, or the right mixture between foolish government and paralysis? I'm tipping a Trump majority; and if not, then NOM and a 12th amendment win by Trump or Pence.

There won't be a big anti-Trump November Surprise. Last night's press conference in Los Angeles where "Jane Doe" was expected to reveal her identity was a complete failure - a last-minute no-show. Then there was the Jennifer Hawkins video. Had the Clinton campaign had some powerful cards, they would have played them smack into Trump's face in response to the James Comey FBI event. Any big November Surprise is likely to be pro-Trump.

William said...

Remember how the pledge to support the Republican nominee backfired. Now Trump has gotten everyone to say the elections can't be rigged thus freeing Trump's supporters to rig the election.

Stephen Morgan said...

A likely situation: people ashamed to admit who they are voting for. Even more so, a plausible situation, which could be very useful if you rig an election and need a reason why the polls were all wrong.

ColoradoGuy said...

Trump is NOT winning in Colorado. This state has gone from purple to solid blue, thanks to more than 100,000 people from the West and East coast moving over the last year.

gerry said...

Comey is trying to interfere in the election. He has decided he will probably push to indict her-for the Foundation and knows t will be easier if she's not president

Joseph Cannon said...

gerry, that is silly. Clinton did nothing wrong re: the foundation. It's a charity; she derives no profit from it. The conclave of FBIO agents inspired by the Schweiker book were stopped by the national FBI HQ -- by Comey.

Anonymous said...

I'm getting increasingly nervous. Nevada and New Hampshire are breaking his way. Colorado is coming down to a tie. She's got to win North Carolina or Florida to really put this away.

Joseph Cannon said...

Anon, the Rick Wilson fellow promises that "the bombs of November" are going to hit soon. I don't see any other hope for Hillary -- unless the bombs hit her as well.

No mater what people say, this is the effect of days of social media propaganda designed to instill the inchoate feeling that she is a crook. Even MY readers are starting to buy into that propaganda. It's not founded in fact, but the sheer pervasiveness of it is overpowering.