Trump is doing better than expected in key states. Right now, TPM seems stunned by the "failure" of polling. But NBC offered what I consider the most important revelation: Early in the evening, Trump Tower was despondent over the exit polls, but now the campaign is talking about "over-performing" the exit polls.
Isn't that what we heard in 2004? The exits placed Kerry ahead in Ohio. The explanation we were given at the time for this disparity -- and it's the only explanation we have to this day -- is that the people polled during the exits lied to the pollsters.
Does that seem likely to you?
9 comments:
Joseph, I think if Trump wins this, I'm afraid I'll be put to death. No, I'm not kidding around or being hyperbolic. I can see myself, some years from now, being hunted down by a roving band of Trumpists/Trumpians (should I call them that?) who are looking to extinguish the last light out of the opposition. Those who not only did not support Trump nowadays, but refused to bow down to his absolute authority. I can see this as the beginning of the end of my life. Trump can bring back torture that's "a hell of a lot worse than waterboarding" or mock executions, but I will never bow down to him or his thugs. They will kill me before that happens, only my slumped over corpse will bow to Trump. And I don't think it's just the beginning of the end for me. I also think it's the beginning of the end for America. With a Republican majority in the House and Senate, and the most evil Republican in the White House, what future is there?
Goodbye, Columbia. It saddens to see you raped by a villain such as Trump and his loathsome followers. I'm scared and alone now, I know I'll die at the hands of Trump's thugs, I know it. What a stupid fuckin' fate for both Columbia and myself. Stupidity is humankind's Achilles' heel.
Don't discount Trump being named on the ballot as "Republican, American Independent". How the heck does that happen? Trump ran as a Republican, why does he get to send a last minute reminder to all the independents that he supports the independent movement, when he ran as a Republican.
Another aspect is California. California has 12% of the U.S. population. It is completely pointless to call anyone in California when doing a nationwide poll. Whether Clinton wins by 10,000 votes, or 2 million votes, she gets the same electoral bounty of 55 votes. California creates a polling offset/inaccuracy that I would estimate at 2% to 5%
If California had not been called at all, the polls would have actually been much more accurate. Then, how does one account for the percentage of polling calls that don't get answered? Is the percentage higher in the urban or rural areas?
If Hillary Clinton had pounded on Donald Trump over being a tax cheat and paying no taxes for the past 20 years, Trump has to either reveal his income taxes, or, stay silent and take the hit. Hillary Clinton did not throw that punch even as Trump repeatedly called her a crook.
That is the real reason she is losing and will probably lose.
The Fox News expert about two minutes ago stated the oversaturation of California in the polling. Just sayin.
I'm crying here as I'm listening to this billionaire bastard's acceptance speech.
This is a diastrous moment for the US and for the world. The people of the US have chosen fascism. Call it by its name.
Fascism is now probably in the pipeline for Britain, France and Germany, and it's hardly deep below the surface in Russia. Fascists around the world will celebrate the dawn of the new age.
Civil war in the US is likely; or if not civil war, then the horrendous effects of civil war.
We cannot let of the hook the supporters of this guy: the sons of bitches - both men and women, some deeply evil, others mainly cretins who chose evil - who went out and voted fascist because this Hitlerite demagogue promised he was going to solve all their problems. They, not we, are the scum of the earth.
This is the result I expected. (Unlike Joe I wasn't even temporarily won over by pollsters in their arithmetic ivory towers whose ideas and methodologies aren't informed by an understanding of the fascist monster which has been roused in millions of minds.)
Long live the people in the United States who resisted this motherfucker, and those who will resist him in the future! You need and deserve our support.
On DailyPUMA I warned over and over that Hillary Clinton could lose this thing. I wasn't doing it so I could crow later, I was doing it hoping someone would read it who could make a difference. Trump got a final 10 day infusion of 25 million dollars in television advertising from a PAC. Allegedly he did not even want the ads to run.
I begged on DailyPUMA that Hillary Clinton had to respond to each attack ad, and if she was not agile enough to do so, then maybe she could not be a leader either. Ultimately it was a very close race in the Swing States with several big states having less than 100,000 votes separating the two, so it was not a blowout by any means.
Anytime I made a specific reference to a specific issue that I think Hillary Clinton was screwing up, alleged Hillary Clinton supporters would angrily respond. This type of constant Clinton enabling among her alleged followers in the end actually hurt her.
When I wrote that her defeat in Michigan in the Primaries was caused because she did not go into the smaller, rural areas of Michigan, I was mocked by Uppity Woman, an alleged Hillary Clinton blogger. When I mentioned how awful Clinton's handling of the Moca whatever drink when she had her spazz attack, again I was told how wrong i was. How the heck can a woman who is supposed to be a healthcare advocate can rave about a sugary drink, but we never see her exercising to show how she works off the drink?
I warned about the National Enquirer headlines, I advocated Clinton supporters flip the National Enquirer around so the backside was showing whenever an NE headline mocked the Clintons.
The non response to "Lock her Up" was deafening as well, I suggested groups going to Trump rallies and yelling back, In the White House after the Lock her up comment was made.
Not everything can be done behind the scenes, sometimes the response has to be delivered in public rather than taking the high brow approach. And if Hillary Clinton's team had assailed Trump on his refusal to reveal his income tax records, what was Trump going to do? Hillary Clinton had the perfect vehicle to say ANYTHING she wanted about Trump's income tax records because Trump was NOT going to release them.
The word to describe this campaign I would use is Corrosive. There were so many corrosive movements against Hillary Clinton that she really needed the blogging community to help her. There are literally hundreds of blogs constantly chirping allegations against the Clintons, there are a scant couple dozen of pro Hillary Clinton blogs, almost all ignored by the Clinton side.
I'll have more to write about in terms of the word Corrosive, except that I have my own deadlines in real life to deal with. In the end Hillary Clinton never got it that her supporters hurt whenever she did not fight back as hard as she got it.
i still consider Donald Trump a tax cheat and if Barack Obama had a lick of sense he would put pressure on the IRS to explain why Donald Trump got to fund his entire presidential campaign on money he stole from Taxpayers. And I would also contest Trump placing the words American Independent after Republican. Trump did not run as an American Independent and to have that description placed next to his name on the ballot was fraud.
Don't blame me I voted for Bernie Sanders. Can't believe those fools who insisted that Bernie could not win.
It would not be complete without a BernieBrat mansplaining that ONLY Bernie could've won. Flip side of the same misogynistic coin.
Thanks, b. My tears did not come until my 87 year old mom came down the stairs in the morning and asked who won. At the news, she just stood on the stairs head bowed, unable to speak. She neither turned on the news, nor opened the morning paper, nor asked for coffee. Just lay on the sofa, stroking the dog.
Later that day I had to deliver the news to my aunt, who had only the Washington Post headline from the night before. "Trump narrowly leads in a tight race." She said they'd lived through so many presidents, good and bad, they'd get through this one, too.
When I returned to my mom's house, she returned to true form and had to one-up her sister by naming all the presidents they lived through. Except for Reagan, the one she detests the most...she won't say his name outright.
Allesandro, I love that you chose a word Corrosive, it pinpoints a lot. My aunt and I discussed civility, and on the ride home, I saw a bumpersticker that said Choose Civility. I don't think Civility is going to work right now. But even if Hillary and the No-drama Obamas want to "go high" she should, indeed, have fought back. So not only was Joseph correct about the outcome, but he was correct that Hillary should've bypassed the media and directly addressed the nation in Fireside Chat manner.
Post a Comment