Trump's ahead in Ohio and Florida. If he wins both states, he's nearly unstoppable. If he loses both, the convention may well go to a second ballot, which Trump probably would not win.
Here's my big idea -- my "weird trick": Rubio and Cruz should tell their supporters to vote for Kasich in Ohio. If that happens, Kasich will win: Right now, the number are 41% Trump and 35% Kasich. This non-intuitive strategy makes sense: A Trump loss in Ohio -- to anyone -- may well result in that "second ballot" scenario.
Similarly, Kasich and Cruz should tell their supporters to vote for Rubio in Florida. Here, the chances are slimmer: Trump 40% to Rubio's 24%. Cruz is at 19%, which is strong, but he still cannot win the state. Cruz should ask his people in Florida to vote Rubio. (Out of politeness, Rubio should ask his supporters in Texas to vote Cruz, even though Cruz is already poised to win that state.)
It has been suggested that Rubio should pull out now. If he does so, Cruz will not win in Florida. Better, I think, for Cruz and Rubio and Kasich to coalesce their efforts in that state to erect an anti-Trump firewall. It's still a long shot, but it's the best shot.
If Trump loses in Florida and Ohio, the convention becomes an anything-goes affair. Neither Cruz nor Rubio nor Kasich have any other chance. The big problem, of course, is the fact that Cruz and Rubio don't like each other. They both have to grow up fast.
4 comments:
Very clever. You are using the "RISK" strategy in which the 3 weaker opponents gang up on the strongest one.
Don't help them, Joseph! Let them stew in their own juices.
As James Carville says, if your enemy is drowning, throw him an anchor.
Joseph Canon, Rubio just state your idea!
Rubio "I like Joseph Cannon's Idea and am using it without Crediting Him."
Caro, that is a very funny saying.
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