Of the "beige" states on PollTracker's famed chart, the only one that Obama stands any chance of winning (in my opinion) is Michigan. That would put him -- just barely -- over the 270 mark. So one strategy would be to give up on all of the other beige states and then pour all of his funds and all of his energy into MI.
But now there are strong signs that Obama may lose Nevada. His edge there has been dwindling. Don't be surprised if it reddens after the Republican convention.
Also, the polling firm Mitchell Research has been consistently giving Romney the advantage in Michigan.
Personally, I think Gallup and Rasmussen offer the most accurate polling -- in this sense: The degree to which the conservative polls differs from other polls represents the percentage of fraud that the Republican vote-riggers would dare to attempt. That difference equals, if you will, the weight of the thumb on the scale.
Of course, when there is no paper trail, only pre- and post-election polling offers any indication as to the voter's intent.
Since Michigan's secretary of state is a hard-core Republican, she'll no doubt be down with those scurrilous efforts to suppress "voting while black." On the other hand, MI does have a paper ballot.
That happy fact -- and that happy fact alone -- gives Obama a chance. I still say that Romney has, if not a lock, then a massive advantage.
Don't say this election doesn't matter. I don't like Obama -- I still consider him the worst thing to hit the Democratic party in decades -- but I despise the prospect of a 7-2 conservative Supreme Court. Don't you dare try to convince me that Obama's picks would be no better: I admire Elena Kagan, and I want to see more Supreme Court judges like her.
Unless we can overturn Citizens United, there is no hope for this country.
In recent elections, the contest usually comes down to one state -- maybe two. Which state or states do you think will be decisive in 2012?
I think Ohio will be crucial, as will Florida.
ReplyDeleteIf Obama loses Nevada, he will lose the election. Nevada has picked the president every year since 1964.
ReplyDeleteI'm amazed Ohio/ Michigan are leaning red after the Auto-bailout. A stacked far right supreme court is truly a scary thought.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.salon.com/2012/02/21/justice_kagan_sides_with_the_right_on_miranda/
ReplyDeleteCannon at odds with himself again.
President Barack is not hope for this country and the country will not be better off if he wins against Willard Romney. In my eyes, Barack Obama is even more authoritarian and egregious than the George Bush II/Richard Cheney combo administration the USA had before Barack. From Barack Obama's secret wars, waged entirely by machines/clones/drones in places such as Africa, to his passage of the NDAA, the 'anti-Occupy' laws, his support of furthering the Orwellian surveillance state with monitoring and controlling the internet and with TrapWire, a control apparatus previously thought to be fiction only as shown in the fictional Jason Bourne series, Barack's refusal to close down 'Gitmo' and the 'black prison' system, Barack's increased use of rendition & torture even moreso than under George Bush, Barack Obama has proven himself to be nothing short of unfathomably evil. According to PoliticalCompass, Barack Obama is just as right wing as Willard is and there is essentially no difference between the two psychotically conservative parties (Democratic or Republican Parties).
ReplyDeleteThere won't be a"decisive" state. It's going to be closer to the 1980 election, red all over. I suspect that the news of the landslide Republican win will be made as soon as CA and other western state close their polls.
ReplyDeleteDM
Jay, the topic of this post was not "Barack Obama: Good or bad?" The topics were polling and the electoral college. You can offer predictions about such matters regardless of your feelings re: Obama or Mittens.
ReplyDeleteI see this post has brought out the ratfuckers! So how does that rodent vajayjay feel, lads? A bit tight, innit?
ReplyDeleteObama will win a very tight race in both popular and electoral votes -- he'll win Ohio and Michigan only because of the auto bail-out. This is good news because the alternative is execrable.
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