Polls

Foster McCollum White Baydoun is a polling firm I've never heard of previously. It's easy to call their new poll an outlier, since it puts Romney five points ahead in the must-win state of Michigan. Other polls have have Romney dipping a bit in the wake of the Paul Ryan selection. This conservative site says that FMWB has a Democratic clientele; the wording of the question on the Ryan budget certainly does not favor the GOP position. Nevertheless, the poll indicates that MI voters approve of that budget. These results, if accurate, are stunning -- especially since the Medicare voucher plan remains unpopular nationwide.

Let's wait and see what the more familiar pollsters have to say.

More generally, the polls in the swing states give Obama a razor thin margin, and his electoral college advantage -- even on TPM -- keeps dwindling. Everyone expected that Ryan would lose Florida for the GOP, but Romney has quietly gained in that state. Combine this "creeping momentum" with the new Jim Crow laws and the hard-right Secretaries of State in the swing states, and I don't see how Romney can lose.

Update: The PollTracker agglomeration of major polls puts Romney ahead for the first time. Odd how nobody seems to be making a big deal out of this. Romney accomplished this turnaround even though the headlines have not been favoring him.