Rmoney has it in the bag: The SoS factor

(Yes, I know the headline misspells Romney's name. After pondering the new spelling, I've decided not to correct my typo. R-Money. Fits him, dunnit?)

Look, even though nobody's happy with Obama, this is an election year, and you are reading a political blog. We can't avoid talking about the horse race. Even if you don't admire the candidates, you should take interest in the integrity of the vote.

A WSJ/NBC poll finds Obama ahead by about three points nationally. How can such a dispiriting president maintain an advantage, even a slight one, so close to the election? I blame the Republican primary process, which enticed so many candidates to bring The Krazy. Romney isn't nuts (except to the degree that uncontrollable avarice may be considered pathological), but he must bow to his base and grovel to the goofy. Even though the Tea Party remains unpopular, no-one can erase the perception that the baggers run the GOP. 

You might say that the birthers, the gay-bashers and the fundamentalist freakazoids are Obama's secret weapon; they energize Dem voters far more than Obama himself ever could. If the Republicans lose this thing despite their formidable financial advantage, blame the conservative activists who proudly wear t-shirts bearing the word "SCARY." 

What about the electoral college map? Here it is. You can bet the rent money that we will see see some volatility in the pale blue states. In fact, Ohio was considered a toss-up just last night. It now sports a light blue coat of paint. Very light.

Let's provisionally accept these poll results. Let's try to make some predictions based on the (very questionable) proposition that blue will stay blue.

The only too-close-to-call states on this particular map -- right this instant -- are Florida (29 votes), Michigan (16 votes) and Iowa (6). Obama has 268 votes; Romney has 219. The magic number is 270.

With Obama only two electoral votes away from victory, can Romney still win this thing? You bet. In fact, I think he has it in the bag.

Florida. Let's face it, Florida is hopeless. The voter purge targets minorities, and I don't think the Justice Department will have much luck in righting the situation. The Florida Secretary of State, Ken Detzner, is a toady appointed by Governor Rick Scott. Here's an example of what to expect from Detzner:

It is a sad commentary that Bill Internicola, a 91-year old World War II veteran, is being targeted as a potential noncitizen. He was ordered to prove his citizenship or lose the right to vote...

It gets worse.

It is pretty damning that after the 2010 election,  Gov. Rick Scott instructed then-Secretary of State Ken Browning to compile a massive database of alleged “non-citizen” voters. Browning resigned in February rather than implement Gov. Scott’s plan, saying “we were not confident enough about the information for this secretary to hang his hat on it.”

In early May, Scott found a stool pigeon in Browning’s successor, Ken Detzner, who happens to be a former beer-industry lobbyist. Detzner announced a list of 182,000 suspected non-citizens to be removed from the voting rolls, along with 50,000 apparently dead voters in early May. The state mailed out the first batch of 2,600 letters on May 8, informing residents, “you are not a United States citizen; however you are registered to vote.”

Um, well, that batch was riddled with inaccuracies. But do you think Rick Scott and his lackeys care? Hell no.

(Paragraph breaks added for readability.) Also see here, under "Controversies."

Iowa. In Iowa, the Republicans bent over backwards to make voting easy during the GOP primary. Now that it's general election time, they are fighting for strict voter ID laws.

Of course, the fairness of the Iowa vote is up to the Secretary of State, a fellow named Matt Schultz.

Secretary of State Matt Schultz defeated a popular incumbent in 2010 based on a single issue — photo identification of Iowa's voters.

Schultz's bill is simple — the ID must show the name of the individual, a photograph, and contain an expiration date.

Remember 2004, when Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell -- a guy most of us never heard of -- suddenly became famous/notorious? Schultz could be the new Blackwell.

Michigan. So what's the sitch in Mich? For some years now, Michigan has had a photo voter ID law which arguably discourages voting, although the law does allow photo-free people to vote if they sign an affadavit.

I'm more interested in the Secretary of State, a woman named Ruth Johnson -- a Republican, of course. Can we expect fairness from her? To phrase it another way: Is she an old school conservative, or a new school nutjob?

Her campaign site gives us a big clue. 

The Ruth Johnson campaign for Secretary of State called on Jocelyn Benson to respond to new evidence by an election expert that the Benson campaign has troubling ties to George Soros and other liberal extreme organizations.

Oh boy. Whenever you hear "Evil Soros" rhetoric, you're dealing with a resident of Wackyland. Johnson's site also claims that Al Franken stole his election in Minnesota. (He did not.)

It gets worse:

...State Secretary of State Ruth Johnson (R) has plotted over the past eight month to turn Michigan's upcoming November 6, 2012 vote down-right chaotic, by lobbying for election law changes at the last minute.

Although Michigan's GOP led House and Senate could have passed Johnson's 'Secure and Fair Elections Initiative' anytime over the past eight months, since they control both chambers and the agenda, they waited until June 2, 2012 to "shove" Senate Bill 754 right on though with "Immediate Effect".

The embedded video (above) will give you a very clear idea as to what to expect from the MI vote. It should also be noted that Johnson resorted to a very questionable strategem to keep Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson off the ballot. (Libertarians siphon votes from the GOP.)

Ruth Johnson is, in short, the new Katherine Harris.

Summing up: The Republicans can control this election by controlling the Secretaries of State. Even if the current electoral map remains unchanged -- even if the lightly Smurfy states never go salmon -- the SoS factor clinches the deal for Romney. Obama cannot win unless he can pull far enough ahead in Florida, Michigan and Iowa to nullify any attempt at electoral hugger-mugger.

And let's face it: We have every reason to expect a few light blue states to blush -- especially Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, a Republican bigwig has pretty much admitted that the great GOP voter purge is really a gimmick to put Romney in the White House:

At the Republican State Committee meeting, Turzai took the stage and let slip the truth about why Republicans are so insistent on voter identification efforts — it will win Romney the election, he said:

“We are focused on making sure that we meet our obligations that we’ve talked about for years,” said Turzai in a speech to committee members Saturday. He mentioned the law among a laundry list of accomplishments made by the GOP-run legislature.

“Pro-Second Amendment? The Castle Doctrine, it’s done. First pro-life legislation – abortion facility regulations – in 22 years, done. Voter ID, which is gonna allow Governor Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania, done.”