Thursday, June 11, 2009

Why do people believe nutty crap?

Although my headline may seem terribly unscientific, my purpose is to direct your attention to this research paper. A study at Duke university concentrated on those who hold to the view that Barack Obama is a Muslim, despite his protestations to the contrary.

(My own suspicion is that he is not, never has been, and probably never will be particularly religious. That's one of the few things I like about him.)

The implications of the study go beyond that specific issue, of course. The data indicate that once a person chomps into the dripping hamburger of Strange Belief, he becomes addicted to the taste and will do anything for another bite.

Those who believe that Obama is a Muslim will not allow mere fact to dislodge that concept from their craniums. No amount of counter-evidence will suffice. The proposition thus becomes non-falsifiable -- and as you know, any non-falsifiable proposition is beyond the realms of science and logic.

(I'm reminded of the maker of Loose Change, who proudly announced that he considered the "controlled demolition" theory to be non-falsifiable. He thus confessed that he was in the religion business.)

The students applied argumentative strategies which, they felt, would have an improved success rate in reversing the conviction that Obama is a Muslim. Those strategies did not work.

Only one approach proved successful, and it had nothing to do with logic. A test subject would admit that his or her belief in the "Muslim" rumor might be wrong-headed only if the following two conditions were met:

1. The subject had to self-identify as a Republican, and

2. Non-white administrators had to be present.

When only white administrators were in the room during the presentation of corrective material, the belief that Obama is a Muslim actually firmed up. If a black person stepped into the room, the test subject became rather more likely to admit "Maybe I've been wrong."

One can only guess as to why the race of the administrator had an impact. I suspect that most people wedded to a strange belief know, on some level, that the belief is backed by insufficient evidence. The belief is born of emotion. A person may feel guilty about those emotions when confronted, face to face, with someone who might feel personally insulted by those feelings.

Two questions:

1. How would the Duke students categorize me? In their study, those who do not take Obama at his word are categorized as believers in the "Muslim" rumor. I've always considered that rumor inane. On the other hand, I scoff at the idea that Obama is the "committed Christian" he claims to be. Being a cynic, I think that most politicians lie about the depth of their religious commitment. The nature of the American electorate is such that any political candidate who thinks that man is alone in the universe must either fib about his views or seek other forms of employment.

(For years, I wondered out loud: "Is Dubya faking it?" I've finally concluded that his gonzo version of Christianity is genuinely felt -- and God help us all.)

2. Why do people become so firmly wedded to a strange belief that alienates them from large segments of polite society? I would argue that alienation strengthens the belief.

Although I cannot provide a citation at the moment, I recall reading an observation about the experimental utopian communities that popped up in America during the mid-19th century. Those communities which forced the participants to undergo enormous sacrifice (through the imposition of celibacy, dietary laws, a strict dress code, etc.) stayed cohesive for a longer time. Those communities which allowed the greatest freedom fell apart rapidly.

If you announce to the world that you favor a strange belief -- Obama is a Muslim, your father came to Earth in a flying saucer, the Illuminati controls everything, space lasers blew up the twin towers, evolution is a big conspiracy -- many people will sneer at your views. They will laugh at you and shun you. You will become something of an outcast.

That outcast status constitutes a form of social sacrifice.

Having made such a sacrifice, you will now hold onto your strange belief with even greater ferocity; suspicion will solidify into conviction. You do not want to admit that you underwent ridicule for a foolish cause. Thus, the mere presentation of fact will not dislodge a goofy idea that has well and truly taken hold of your imagination.

Would reducing the social stigma surrounding unusual beliefs have the paradoxical effect of decreasing the prevalence of those ideas?

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think Obama was influenced by his contact with Islam in his childhood. One could not live in Indonesia, with an Indonesian Muslim father, and not be influenced by the religion. To support my view is that he can chant the Adhan. Like you, I don't believe he is religious. I believe Obama doesn't believe in anything very strongly, and that's why he can't support anything with passion.

Anonymous said...

For some people accepting an unusual belief is the price they willingly pay for admission to a group or "tribe"

"The major mechanism by which any tribe creates and maintains tribal identity and cohesiveness is obedience: the requirement that each member of the tribe conform his thinking and behavior in accordance with the major elements of the tribe's belief system."


http://powerofnarrative.blogspot.com/2009/02/ravages-of-tribalism-iii-learning-to.html

Snowflake said...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance

Cognitive Dissonance.


I don't see him as being a Muslim but I think he is more sympathetic towards anti American sentiment than any previous president and I think for some people that is the same as being a Muslim.

Anonymous said...

I don't believe Obama is a Muslim, which is a different question (although related) from the question of his citizenship (and I don't believe he was born outside of America, either).

However, one can see how the questions merge a bit, in the issue of the birth certificate. Why has it been so important to keep the long form held by the state of Hawaii held out of public scrutiny, to the point of spending a million or so in hard cash to fight its release? Why not simply release it, which can be done by a certified letter from Obama?

Perhaps because the withheld document states his 'religion' as Muslim? (Not that babies have a religion, and not that it would mean he followed that notated claim ever in his life.)

I do not think such an entry would be probative, but I can see how it might be thought harmful given the degraded state of national discourse. And I agree that it is slightly suspicious at least to spend 7 figures to keep it private.

While I acknowledge these two things are different questions, still the one mystery very likely feeds the other concern.

XI

Cinie said...

Does anyone remember the fevered speculation around Cassius Clay's religious beliefs before he declared?
In Obie's case it's a moot point however.
Obama is god.

Mr X said...

The reason people believe in "nutty crap" as you call it is because it's a well known fact that today's conspiracy theories are mainstream news four years later. It happens all the time.

Obama WAS technically a Muslim when his step father adopted him. That's documented fact. However, I don't think Obama is in any way religious, other than preaching to his ego.

Here's another nutty fact. Obama is white. He's not legally black. Again, documented fact.

Also, the theory that people are ashamed to admit they were wrong is absurd. People who deal with alternative news are the first in line to debunk most of the crazy stuff. Trust me, what comes out as conspiracy theories or "nutty crap" is the tip of the iceberg. Without the alternative news community, the situation would be at least 100 times worse than it is now. Just look at tabloid news as one example.

Nutty crap exists because people hide the truth and then people make shit up. The theories aren't what you should be looking at. It's why they came about in the first place. Why are the facts being hidden in the first place that enables these theories to crop up in the first place?

Nadai said...

I don't think people cling to their bizarre beliefs mainly because they've sacrificed too much and don't want to look like an idiot backing away - I think it's more that they come to hate the "normals" who abuse them and don't want to become one of them.

The greater longevity of the more extreme Utopian communities fits this, too. An extreme community puts its members in constant conflict with the outer world, maximizing the abuse they take there and lessening the possibility of friendly contact. In less extreme communities, some of the outer world contact will be positive, making it easier for doubting members to convince themselves that returning to the normal world won't be the equivalent of going to Hell.

donna darko said...

Obama was RAISED Muslim but is not Muslim. He does, however, sympathize with Muslims and Muslim beliefs.

My personal take on the birth certificate situation is he doesn't want to show it because it says he is Muslim, that is, he was raised Muslim. He is also technically not a "natural born citizen" meaning both parents had to be US citizens when he was born.

b said...

"as you know, any non-falsifiable proposition is beyond the realms of science and logic."

Doesn't mean it isn't true. Science is religious, anyway, backed up by propaganda.

I don't know about America, but the UK actually has professorial chairs in scientific propaganda - e.g. the one recently held at Oxford by that bozo Richard Dawkins. Not to mention media posts such as Ben Goldacre's, unsurprisingly in a newspaper that lays back and spreads 'em for Big Pharma whenever it gets the chance. Scientists are intellectual whores too - from the lowly jobsworths to the big-time jobsworths. They all keep their mouths shut, except when the lords of Big Business unzip.

Each scientific sub-field is under centralised control via journals (there's one leading one for each sub-field, and then one leading one for each field, and so on, with Nature at the top). These are mostly owned by a single company, Elsevier, which in the UK (probably also in the US?) owns the less-heavy magazines too through which medics and lawyers etc. are told what to think.

(You once called Edward Bernays "primitive" here. I disagree. I got a lot from him that aided my understanding of this stuff, which has a unified essential nature, and is not meaningless "surface" and "people just applying scientific method", as those into "analytical philosophy" [and its modern spawn, postmodernism] would like to portray it).

Many truths are mainly perceived intuitively. As for falsifiability, you take that right-wing arsehole Karl Popper seriously? I'd put him in the category of people believed to have, or have had, great minds and to have made great contributions, but whose actual work was completely full of shite. The list includes John Kenneth Galbraith, A J Ayer, etc.

Religion is shite, but science is just a form of it. I'm very much reminded of what the young Marx wrote about the atheist State as the highest form of religious State. A brilliant insight.

b

lori said...

I have a few dear friends who cling to nutty beliefs. They give me David Icke books as Christmas presents. This is what I know about them - they see their belief in this stuff as evidence that they are smarter than the people who don't believe. Or rather, that they have the inside tale that the straights don't have - or something like that. It's proof for them that they are the intellectual elite who can see the real truth of our situation.

b said...

Millions believe that those fuckers on the TV, or elsewhere in the media, whether politicians, government leaders, scientific commentators, or other celebrities or experts, have some sort of care about them, about society, or about the truth. They don't. They're completely cynical. So are those who own and direct them.

Most fringe stuff (measured by the shelfspace taken up in big-chain bookshops, for example) is published by big publishing houses. "Mind, Body and Spirit" seems to be the accepted term for this area in British publishing.

Sure that stuff's functional to mixing up minds, as a whole; but the truth is not, and will never be, on TV - the mainstream stuff has much greater effect, and the whole biz, even as the totalitarian character of the culture intensifies, still uses pseudo-oppositions. That's how Zionazi journalist Melanie Phillips could write an article recently (or allow her byline to be affixed to it), about Peter Mandelson has conducted a "coup" [sic].

Gary McGowan said...

"Why do people believe nutty crap?"

Indeed. Why do people believe Sir Issac Newton "discovered the law of gravity"? How many people know the story of John Maynard Keynes buying a chest full of Newton's original writings at auction, and of what (utter nonsense) it contained? [Ref: "Newton the Man," Newton Cercentenary Celebration, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1947.]

b, I think you would enjoy Friedrich Schiller's 1789 lecture, "What Is, and to What End do We Study, Universal History," right at the beginning of which he tears into academic whores. The whole thing is only some 8-9 pages, and he throws a great deal of light on the "bread-fed scholars" in the first two or so.

Anonymous said...

One being's crunchy nut crap--Delicious!--is another beings trusty old Cannonfire. Depends on who they trust for painting their picture of reality.

Anonymous said...

He is also technically not a "natural born citizen" meaning both parents had to be US citizens when he was born

No, that is not the technical meaning of natural born citizen. Not even close. NEITHER parent needs to be a US citizen for a child to be a natural born US citizen. (If so hilariously wrong a statement was intended as a joke, my apologies for not catching the humorous intent.)

"Why do people believe nutty crap?"

Indeed. Why do people believe Sir Issac Newton "discovered the law of gravity"?


(sigh) It is surely among the most annoying of Lyndon Hermyle L's tropes that each and every scientist from Great Britain was a monumental fraud and poseur.

Whatever the truth concerning Newton and the universal credit given him for discovering the law of gravity (pace LHL & co.), it is most certainly not a 'nutty crap' to think it is true (since it is instead standard history, even if perhaps false, which I don't much credit as possible).

XI

demholdout said...

I think those who believe Obama is Muslim cannot be fully blamed for their ignorance. I have a family member who believes Obama is loyal to Islam and is only a "Christian" because it was the only way he could work his way up in politics.

I personally believe that Obama is an opportunist without any strong beliefs. I think most of us at this blog realize that Obama is not a religious man.

But this is also why it is so easy for people to mistake him as a Muslim when those who know him as a careerist see him bowing to the Saudi king. Or flip flops from banning anyone to use his middle name to now being okay with it when it benefits him during his trips to the Middle East.

Obama uses his Muslim roots to his advantage whenever he feels like it then calls others racists when it doesn't. When someone like Obama is not set in any beliefs (religious or political) other than believing himself to be a Messiah, then I can see why people would question his beliefs.

Gary McGowan said...

"... tropes that each and every scientist from Great Britain was a monumental fraud and poseur."

XI, Nothing special about Great Britain. Any place chosen to serve as a base for imperialism is likely to have the clout to promulgate crap as science or philosophy. France and Germany came up with their share, as has the U.S.A.

I think it important to note here that it was the likes of the British East India Company who were running the show in G.B., rather than the government per se. The same sort of "revolving door," whereby government officers and major stockholders in imperial operations was happening then as it does now. Such operations propagandize to control popular opinion in academia as well as on the streets or in the markets.

And this: "Whatever the truth concerning Newton [...] it is most certainly not nutty crap to think it is true, since it is instead standard history, even if perhaps false [...]"

Simply amazing. Shouldn't we consider the fact that even historians dispute standard history? And they most certainly do sometimes refer to the interpretations of other historians as nutty crap when not in a public forum requiring more polite language.

I don't care if teh President is a Muslim or not. I DO care when Der Fuehrer spouts, "...cost of Medicare and Medicaid is one of the biggest threats to our federal deficit," and states that he plans to cut two trillion dollars in national health care over the next decade, and depends on Laurence Summers for his daily briefings on the state of the economy.

donna darko said...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural-born_citizen

The term "natural born Citizen" has never been defined by the Courts in the course of a Presidential qualification challenge. It is believed by some that this provision means that only persons born on U.S. soil to two U.S. citizens are “natural born Citizens” of the nation and eligible to become President. There are others who believe that anyone who acquires citizenship by any means other than naturalization is a "natural born Citizen" and eligible for the Presidency. In between these extremes lie gray areas, some controversy, and various obiter dicta from the courts.

Anonymous said...

You have distorted the meaning of the term "unfalsifiable" as used in science. It means that a theory is constructed so that any evidence produced supports it. That makes the theory untestable and thus unfalsifiable (because no evidence that might exist would be capable of negating the theory's predictions). That is not the same as someone who refuses to believe evidence contradicting a theory's predictions, or who refuses to modify or abandon theory in the light of falsifying evidence. That is the fault of the person who thereby holds an unscientific attitude. The term "unfalsifiable" refers to the nature of the theory, not the actions of the person believing such a theory.

Why is this distinction important? I dislike seeing people bend the meanings of important terms to suit their own arguments. It is just as inappropriate as the person who refuses to change a belief in the light of evidence.

Anonymous said...

Donna, thanks, I wasn't aware that there was THAT much vagary in the definition (or that rather, there isn't any definitive definition agreed on).

However, based on the cite, there still may not be THAT much variation in interpretation, as the passage you cite contains the scare footnotes of 'who??' applied to 'some' [claim both parents must be citizens], and then follows the passage with footnotes [dubious][dubious].

Gary, of course I agree that some supposed 'history' is false, and some is even nutty. (I still disagree that believing the supposed history about Newton and his discoveries is nutty, even if it is false.)

However, your argument with Obama's statement over Medicare/Medicaid expenses isn't with HIM, but with the arithmetic of compound interest growth rates. Because it is absolutely true, and observed by many, even decades before the rise of Obama, that medical cost increases that run double the rate of inflation will mount up to take 100% of any feasible federal budget. That would probably be true even without the cohort of retired persons eligible for Medicare scheduled to double from the recently achieved 40 million retired, to 80 million retired.

When something cannot go on forever as it has been doing, then it will not go on forever, and that truism applies in spades to these unjustified and unsustainable medical cost increases that result from an entirely rigged and broken system.

XI

Joseph Cannon said...

Anonymous 8:29: Always, the troublemakers are anonymous. Can't even come up with a temporary nick.

At any rate, my anonymous visitors have often demonstrated difficulties in mastering the art of reading. Otherwise, they would read the rules for comments, which I have clearly posted in the form of an attractive graphic.

So let's go re-read some basic material, shall we?

Karl Popper understood that as these things played out in the real world, people who hold to untestable ideas jigger with the standards of evidence. It all comes down to that, really.

"I may perhaps exemplify this with the help of the various theories so far mentioned. Einstein's theory of gravitation clearly satisfied the criterion of falsifiability. Even if our measuring instruments at the time did not allow us to pronounce on the results of the tests with complete assurance, there was clearly a possibility of refuting the theory.

"Astrology did not pass the test. Astrologers were greatly impressed, and misled, by what they believed to be confirming evidence — so much so that they were quite unimpressed by any unfavorable evidence. Moreover, by making their interpretations and prophesies sufficiently vague they were able to explain away anything that might have been a refutation of the theory had the theory and the prophesies been more precise. In order to escape falsification they destroyed the testability of their theory. It is a typical soothsayer's trick to predict things so vaguely that the predictions can hardly fail: that they become irrefutable.

"The Marxist theory of history, in spite of the serious efforts of some of its founders and followers, ultimately adopted this soothsaying practice. In some of its earlier formulations (for example in Marx's analysis of the character of the "coming social revolution") their predictions were testable, and in fact falsified.[2] Yet instead of accepting the refutations the followers of Marx re-interpreted both the theory and the evidence in order to make them agree."

I don't see how anything here differs from my operating premises. (I'm sure reader b, if he is still following this thread, is fulminating at the jibe at Marx.)

That quote comes from here...

http://www.stephenjaygould.org/ctrl/popper_falsification.html

At no point does Popper define the concept of the non-falsifiable in your fashion:

"It means that a theory is constructed so that any evidence produced supports it."

He said:

"A theory which is not refutable by any conceivable event is non-scientific."

There is a difference between active support and non-testability.

I also think Wikipedia's definition is fine:

"Falsifiability (or refutability) is the logical possibility that an assertion can be shown false by an observation or a physical experiment."

Nothing here about ALL evidence SUPPORTING the idea.

For example, there are bozos out there who still believe that JFK was shot by the Secret Service man who drove the limo, William Greer. But even these bozos, for all of their bozo-hood, do not claim that ALL evidence SUPPORTS this theory. (Think of the finding of Oswald's palm print on the rifle, for example.) Instead, they claim that they have ONE piece of evidence (a really, really degraded copy of the Zapruder film) which supports this theory, and that this piece of evidence supercedes all others.

How do the bozos counter those who claim that their version of the Z film is poor and misleading, and that cleaner copies show Greer with both hands on the wheel? Simple. The supporters of the Greer-diddit thesis simply say that anyone who argues against them must be an agent of the Grand conspiracy.

That -- and I think Popper would agree -- is non-falsifiability.

Zee said...

XI, thank you for denouncing the LaRouchie. So relaxing. Many hands make light work when there's a resident LaRouchie to debunk.

On to debunking Mr. X: "He's not legally black." I know exactly where you get that bs. It boggles the mind that people swallow such swill, but I have read the source for that. It's beyond laughable. It has to do with Obama Sr's heritage, and it somehow escaped the notice of everyone who ingested the crap that Obama Sr....is *not* American. Therefore, the argument that Obama Senior is the "last one" who could be considered "legally black" in America is a moot point. And have you looked at the man? He's obviously African not Arabic, despite all the unsubstantiated claims.

Obama is a mutt, like many of us in the U.S. I do agree the change of language from "biracial" to "black" was despicable, but expedient, election-wise.

Zee said...

Cinie, lol! Yes, Obama has been declared God by Newsweek. No wonder legs have been known to tingle in His Presence.

donna darko comes closest. Yes, Obama was raised Muslim. He was registered as such in Indonesia, went to the mosque with his stepdad...and in Islamic culture is considered Muslim by birth. That's why it's no conspiracy theory or mere speculation. He was too chicken shit to come clean on this.

Personally, I think it's because he's an atheist like his mom....and that's considered even worse!

But the question should be asked, and answered, since he's bringing it up again himself (both in Europe and also when he spoke at the Catholic university recently): if Rev. Wright "brought you to Jesus" in the middle of your adult life....what were you before that?

If he was a non-believer, he needs to own up to that as well as his Islamic upbringing, however invested or uninvested he was in it.

He specifically chose Wright's church, I believe, because Wright himself had Islamic ties...and because he was laughed out of his attempts to "Community Organize" and was told it would help if he were an actual member of the Community he was trying to "organize."

Religion? Since he's been declared God, I guess being a Narcissist is as close to religious as he knows how to get.

But since he's appointing Catholic antiabortion activists to his expanded faith-based offices within Health and Human Services, and allowing Mormon holdovers from Bush to argue for DOMA, we have more immediate and pressing worries than whether he's paving the way to Sharia Law. I think the question of his "faith" and what the hell he's up to is worth pressuring him to answer. Because he's acting more like a born-again (or maybe The Second Coming) than the opportunistic non-believer he may be.

donna darko said...

Wikipedia changes. The most prominent viewpoint on that page the last time I checked was that he is not constitutionally eligible because both parents were not US citizens when he was born was. Obama put lots of money into debunking this claim so I'm not surprised the Wikipedia page completely changed.

Yes, Obama was raised Muslim. He was registered as such in Indonesia, went to the mosque with his stepdad...and in Islamic culture is considered Muslim by birth. That's why it's no conspiracy theory or mere speculation. He was too chicken shit to come clean on this.

Yes, he was raised Muslim and this explains his sexism and homophobia more than his being black and POC rushing in front of him every time someone calls him sexist or homophobic.

Like that's not obvious NOW.

Gary McGowan said...

XI, my argument with Obama's statement over Medicare/Medicaid expenses IS with him, because he (chief executive) and others have their heads so far up their arithmetical arses that they can't distinguish (or pretend so) between putting funding into actual medical care rather than into the greedy hands of paper-pushing, bean-counting evil murderous insurance cartels which disproportionately influence the relevant policy decisions. The SYSTEM is wrong and it's wrong because so many fall for the nutty crap the oh-so-well funded propagandists spew out on the subject.

Worse nutty crap is the pushing of kindred austerity pogroms to try to keep the oligarcial financier system in an appearance of functioning so that a more rational, proven system can not be put in place to replace it.

Less importantly, I'm not a "LaRouchie," nor have I been debunked. (Ref Zee... She hasn't figured out that one does not prove something wrong or false by spewing ad hominem nutty crap.)

MrX said...

The comments on here show exactly why people believe in crazy stuff. They believe mainstream news. That's the crazy stuff.

Zee, it has nothing to do with Obama's father not being American. If my figures are wrong, then state the correct numbers, or state how it is wrong. What you've done is simply do some hand waving.

I think it's been established that his most significant racial makeup is white at 50%. I've heard that he's 44% of arab descent and 6% black. Ironically, the lowest figure wins out. If those numbers are wrong, then please state them. I'm open to debating facts, but not hand waving.

"And have you looked at the man? He's obviously African not Arabic, despite all the unsubstantiated claims." - Zee

WOW! Way to be racist! Making a generalized comment based solely on the tint of their skin. Nice one! I thought we were supposed to move beyond this kind of thing. Looks like Tiger Woods was right. If you look like he does, then you're automatically black, regardless of everything else.

Joseph Cannon said...

I'm going to have to stop comments on this thread. My post was anti-nutty crap, and too many comments are pro-nutty crap.

Kenyans are not Arabs. According to this page...

http://kenya.rcbowen.com/people/population.html

...roughly one-fifth of one percent of the Kenyan population is Arab. And Barack Obama Sr does not come from that tiny minority. His family comes from the Luo ethnic group, which is NOT Arabic.

Our president is half-black and half-white. Why is that fact so difficult for some people to accept?