Thursday, October 23, 2008

Were the caucuses unfair? Oh yes.

Obots still pretend that their candidate won the nomination fairly, even though Hillary received the larger number of primary votes. An excellent study by Peniel Cronin makes some troubling observations about the caucus system: See the pdf files available here. Remember, Obama did well in the caucus states -- the primary states went to Hillary.

Primaries have a much, much higher rate of participation. They are state-run and thus have far greater transparency. They can accommodate the disabled, the elderly, and those serving in the military. Caucuses are open to gaming because they cater to relatively small numbers of activists.

Three states -- Texas, Nebraska, and Washington -- have both caucuses and primaries, and in all three states, Hillary did much better in the primaries than in the caucuses. For example:
Nebraska: On February 9, Nebraska held a caucus and only 3.04% of the 1.3 million eligible voters participated. Those 38,571 caucus-goers chose Obama over Clinton 68% to 32% and he won 16 of the 24 pledged delegates. In stark contrast, on May 13th, Nebraska held a primary where nearly 94,000 voters [7.5% of eligible voters] chose Obama by 49.4% to 46.6% ,– only 2.8% instead of the 36% vote-spread recorded in the caucus. If delegates were allocated on the results of the primary instead of the caucus, Obama and Clinton would have received 12 pledged delegates each.
The caucus system badly needs reform. What will Howard Dean do about the situation? Nothing. Why would a burglar favor the installation of surveillance cameras?

9 comments:

Bookhorde said...

OT This morning Fox was talking about that list/petition of Ayers educator supporters who are mostly professors.
That made me think: before I could volunteer at my kids school to help at a homeroom party or chaperone a field trip, I had to submit (and pay for) a state background check and and FBI fingerprint check.
Would Ayers pass an FBI background check to volunteer at a kids school? I wonder about that.

creeper said...

Tried to post this earlier and it went nowhere. Second effort and my apologies if the original turns up.

I saw the caucus manipulation first hand here in my small Iowa town. A fellow who was born and raised here but who moved out of state a few years ago was at the Dem caucus, wearing an Obama button. I asked his sister, who was also there, if he'd moved back to town. "No," she said, "he's just here to help with the caucus."
Almost everyone knew him and we were all so busy minding our manners and greeting him that we didn't realize he was directing the proceedings, to the point of hanging over the chair's shoulder and telling her how to apportion delegates. Dem rules in Iowa allow for observers who live outside the precinct to attend a caucus but specifically prohibit them from taking any part.
If this went on in my little town, where everyone knows everyone else, I can't begin to imagine what it was like in big precincts.
Barack Obama is as crooked as a streak of lightening.

Becki Jayne said...

Thanks for this post, Joseph.

One of my biggest beefs with the party is its undemocratic caucus system. It needs to go.

Anonymous said...

J here -- I'm testing to see if this work.

Anonymous said...

So are you saying that because Obama beat Clinton less badly in a state that had a higher popular turnout, Obama did not deserve the democratic nomination? Can you see why this logic would appear flawed to some?

Chus said...

More information!: Ashley Todd: political victim or hoax?

Anonymous said...

"Can you see why this logic would appear flawed to some?"

Certainly, if by "some" you mean "reality-challenged, self-deluding, Kool-Aid-chugging Obot."

Obama DID cheat, and so did the DNC, when it looked into its magic crystal Obamaball and decided that people who voted for Hillary (or Edwards, or Kucinich) really "meant" to vote for Obama, and that people who couldn't be bothered getting off their asses to go to the polls really voted--in their heads or something--for Obama. The whole thing was rigged from start to finish, and only a delusional 'bot would find that conclusion "flawed."

Alessandro Machi said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Alessandro Machi said...

I might have been one of the first to start doing mathematical analysis of the caucus cheating, however I do credit Lynnette Long with creating a superior blog that lays everything out in an easy to read matter.

Lets be clear about one thing, HILLARY CLINTON WON MORE DELEGATES FROM ALL THE PRIMARIES, EVEN WHEN FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN ARE NOT COUNTED.

MSNBC tried to claim otherwise but where they may have erred was in Texas. In Texas the first 2/3 of the delegates were decided during the primary vote, the final 1/3 was decided via caucuses, so the final 1/3 of the delegates cannot be counted towards the primary delegates.

HIllary won by approximately 28 to 40 MORE delegates than Barack Obama among all the primary states even when Florida and Michigan are not counted.

http://www.HILLARY-WINS.com
http://www.CAUCUSCHEATING.com
http://www.FAIR-REFLECTION.com