Faking it

I encourage readers to take a look at Dr. Michael Carmichael's "A New Perle Harbor." Here's an excerpt:

[Former CIA analyst Ray] McGovern predicted dire consequences would result from Bush’s policy of pre-emptive war. In McGovern’s opinion, Iran would retaliate with a cruise missile attack against the US fleet then launch a military invasion of Iraq and simultaneously activate a world wide ring of terrorists that would make Al-Qaeda look like, “a girls netball team.”

McGovern’s predictions may be unfolding already. The London police raid that coincided with Perle’s visit to Britain netted two men suspected of terrorist plotting to build a massive chemical bomb. But, after four days of excruciating forensic examination of their premises, the police found no evidence of bomb-building activities. Whether this “swoop” was staged or not remains to be seen, but this episode resonates with an official campaign to ratchet up the public concern about terrorism. The non-productive raid has produced a predictable backlash among the local residents who are demanding some form of official confirmation that the raid was based on credible evidence rather than a melange of Islamophobic paranoia.

These words deserve consideration in conjunction with this piece in the Toronto Star on the much-ballyhooed Canadian terror ring:

Or it is possible that the only thing that these bits of evidence prove is that a group of young men went somewhere where they tramped around in big boots, cooked on barbecues, played soldier and generally acted like jerks — which young men are occasionally wont to do.

The three tonnes of ammonium nitrate allegedly purchased was, as McDonell said, three times the amount used in the Oklahoma terror bombing of 1995.

But, as he also said, farmers routinely buy three tonnes of ammonium nitrate "every day." They use it for fertilizer, not bombs.

More:

Another is that this is a reprise of the infamous 2003 Project Thread fiasco, in which RCMP and immigration officials accused 23 Muslims of terrorism only to acknowledge later that at most the men were guilty of minor immigration fraud.

Still another possibility is that this may turn out to be Canada's version of the 2004 Virginia "paintball" trial, in which one man was sentenced to life and another got 85 years.

In that controversial case (even the presiding judge complained the outcome was unfair), nine Muslim men were convicted of participating in terrorist training — the main evidence being that they had played paintball in the woods outside Washington.

Xymphora quotes a National Post story (which is otherwise difficult to access) which states that the CSIS (the Canadian security guys) have been watching these twelve men and five lads for some time.

Police investigators have suggested this group posed an imminent threat to national security, but there are questions being raised about how dangerous the group could have been if CSIS had known about it and was watching it so closely for so long.”

Mr. X goes on to add:

It is becoming obvious that CSIS found a hot-headed leader, and took its time to cultivate the leader and his ‘cell’, probably through guidance from an insider informant who carefully developed all most the radical ideas, up to and including the RCMP-supplied fertilizer. The reason CSIS didn’t act more quickly is that it needed to build up the group to the extent where it could use it to form the basis for requests for more money and power. It is completely ridiculous to believe that the group wasn’t aware that it was being watched, since the Muslim community was completely aware. What kind of group carries on its activities knowing it is being watched by the police? The kind of group that knows it is doing nothing wrong.

So far, I find this theory less than convincing. But I'm willing to consider the possibility that it may be true, and I hope other minds will be open to the notion. Let's see how the evidence develops.