The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) is the first mathematical team to release a valid scientific analysis of the precinct-level 2004 Ohio presidential exit poll data. NEDA's analysis provides virtually irrefutable evidence of vote miscount.Oh yeah? Let's say I'm a skeptic. Convince me.
In E/M precinct 27, with an estimated 100 respondents, Kerry’s official vote count was 29% less than his exit poll share, creating a 58% difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins. There is less than a one in 867,205,500 chance of this occurring due to chance.Yeah, well...that's just one example.
In E/M precinct 25, with an estimated 62 respondents, Kerry’s official vote count was 28% less than his exit poll share, creating a 56% difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins. There is less than a one in 234,800 chance of this occurring due to chance.Pfft. I dare you to come up with a third example.
In E/M precinct 48, with an estimated 100 respondents, Kerry's official vote was 16% less than his exit poll share, creating a 32% difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins. There is less than a one in 17,800 chance of this occurring due to chance.Okay, three examples. How many precincts had these problems?
35% of 49 precincts studied. Let's see...that comes out to...
(Cripes. Where's the calculator on this damn computer? And how do you work it? Damn it, Jim! I'm a painter, not a mathematician...)
...I think that comes out to 17 precincts in this sample where the exits indicated that Kerry would receive a larger vote than he was officially awarded. However, there were two -- count 'em: TWO (2) -- precincts in which the exits overestimated the Bush vote.
So I guess this is a bipartisan problem. You know -- like the Abramoff thing supposedly is.
3 comments:
There's also a thread at Rigorous Intuition
http://tinyurl.com/73cj2
entitled:
"Why my vote didn't count"
Check it out.
Thanks for the pointer to the article, and for the insightful break-down. I wanted to let you know that included a pointer to your article as one of my reference in a post in my blog. (Hopefully the context it was used in doesn't come across as seeming disrespectful. It certainly is not intended that way.)
It's your blog and all, so you're free to mislead your readers by omission if you choose, but I get the sense you seek a fair representation of the facts because your so convinced the truth has got your back. But you seem to have overlooked:
"MILWAUKEE, Jan. 20 (UPI) -- Four men accused of puncturing tires to sabotage Republican get-out-the-vote efforts in 2004 agreed to plead no contest to misdemeanors. . .
Pratt and Omokunde were accused -- along with three other former staffers for the Kerry-Edwards campaign -- vandalizing 25 vans rented by state GOP officials to get people to the polls on Election Day 2004. The vans were parked outside Bush for President headquarters."
Just go to news.google.com and search for "slash milwaukee" and read for yourself.
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