Exit poll data: Conyers writes to Mitofsky

Some readers have scored me for an overly-captious attitude toward the upcoming House investigation into what we are all supposed to call "possible voting irregularities." Very well, then -- let's try to keep the cynicism in check. Which means we should add no comment to this letter from ranking House member John Conyers to exit pollster Warren Mitofsky:

Dear Mr. Mitofsky,

I am writing to ask you to help clear up many of the rumors and disputes surrounding the 2004 Presidential election exit polls by releasing the "raw data" from your exit polls and by testifying at a hearing we will be holding next week.

As you are well aware, many questions have been raised regarding the discrepancy between the early exit polls conducted by the National Election Pool and the final result of the election. Specifically, just after noon on November 2, numbers were reportedly released showing that Senator John Kerry was leading in several key states such as Florida and Ohio by a three percentage point lead late in the day. As we now know, these numbers are at odds with official results.

This discrepancy is objectively problematic and raises serious concerns about voting irregularity. While resonable minds can differ as to the latter theory, the only way to restore complete legitimacy on this election is to have an independent firm conduct a detailed analysis of the data, including the raw data taken at the polls early in the day.

Indeed, exit poll data is now being used by Administration officials to evaluate the legitimacy of the election in the Ukraine. As Secretary of State Colin Powell stated, "We cannot accept this result as legitmate because it does not meet international standards and because there has not been an investigation of the numerous and credible reports of fraud and abuse." Powell recently called for "a full review of the conduct of the election" and tallying of results. Such an inquiry into the legitimacy of election results should be a priority for our country as well.

I would also like to request your attendance at a forum that I, along with many of my colleagues on the Judiciary Committee will be holding to discuss any issues and concerns regarding the numerous voting irregularities that have been reported in Ohio during the 2004 election. The forum will be held on Wednesday, December 8th, 2004 at 10:00 a.m. in Room 2237 of the Rayburn House Office Building. We are sure that you agree with us that regardless of the outcome of the election, it is imperative that we examine and openly discuss any and all factors that may have led to voting irregularities and any failure of votes to be properly counted. This will be a very informative forum for everyone in attendance and any insight or concerns that you may have on this issue will be greatly appreciated.

Okay, let's sneak in one cynical observation: Although Conyers' heart is obviously in the right place, he has left himself wide open to the favorite tactic of Mitofsky, and of all right-wingers who have addressed this issue -- the old "subject switch." Ask Mitofsky "Why do the exits undervalue only the Republican vote in state after state, election after election?" and he will pretend that you asked another question entirely: "Are exit polls 100% accurate?"

So it goes; so it has gone; so it will go.