If someone calls you a "conspiracy theorist" because you suspect vote fraud, send them this chart. It proves the issue.
By the way -- in Jackson County, Florida, 71.5% of the voters are registered as Democrats, yet Bush won some two-thirds of the vote. And you thought that "Jews for Buchanan" thing in 2000 was weird! (Note: I re-wrote this paragraph based on reader info; see comments section.)
13 comments:
The bar chart doesn't indicate when these exit polls were taken and tabulated -- are they early or late? What is the source of the exit-polling data? Is there any reliable source for the last exit polls of the day in each of these states?
I understand your concerns, and we all want more info. I have heard (but cannot recall the source) that exit polls taken late in the day were shaped to conform with counted results.
More to the point, what is the evidence that early exit polls should favor Dems -- in EVERY STATE? I mean, where is the argument in favor of that notion? I keep saying this over and over, and people will one day get the point: I'm not bothered by any lack of accuracy. I'm bothered by the PATTERN of error.
Those charts are startling, yes. But they are slightly misleading, in that these states don't use ALL electronic voting.
I live in NC, and we used a paper-ballot that would eventually be scanned. Perhaps some parts of NC used electronic voting, I really have no idea. But everyone I spoke to at my office (3 different polling places, anyway) used the same ballot type, all of us in Raleigh and surrounding areas.
It would be interesting to see if the data is supposedly representative of the states in their entirety, or just those portions of the state that did use the electronic voting. This I doubt, as the exit-polls are *supposed* to represent a cross-section of the state, so the comparison would be invalid.
My suspicion instead is that the labelling of NC as electronic voting is just wrong. There is plenty of evidence that the exits don't match the actuals, but this page should be clarified to help support this theory.
Keep up the good work! I'm waiting for the dam to burst.
The pattern alone won't convince agnostics or skeptics, suspicious as it is. Of course, some people will never be persuaded -- and are even citing the "errors" of exit polling in Florida 2000 as proof exit polling doesn't work, when it's a matter of public record that Gore got more raw, if uncounted, votes and that the vote count, not the exit polling, was defective.
But, at the least, we need to get the lastest exit polling data for each state. Otherwise the argument, which is inferential at best at this stage, is needlessly weak.
I'm not discounting this theory, and hope they continue to investigate this issue. It may lead a congressional inquiry that, regardless of the outcome, may lay the groundwork for '06 and '08. I'm sure we all also hope they COUNT THE REMAINING BALLOTS IN OHIO. Again, this may nor change the outcome, but sending the message that someone gives a shit to all those who sttod in the rain to vote is important.
RE: Jackson County Florida - I've never lived there, but have been there and worked there for several years while living in another FL city near the Panhandle. This is about as hillbilly as it gets, folks. I would have been astounded if Kerry had gotten a majority of the votes there in the land of guns, moonshine and Jesus.
Your analysis makes me wonder about the predictive validity of separating Reps and Dems. Many of these rednecks are simply registered "Yellow Dog Democrats" who wouldn't actually vote for as Massachusetts, "God-Hating" liberal if their lives depended on it. I'm serious. I also wonder about the census counting there -there are two very large prisons (and a few smaller ones) in Jackson Co. that have sustained the local economy for generations. They only way I can conceive of African-Americans outnumbering the Whites there is if they are counting the ones in prison. Surely not?
Who created that chart? Could you list sources for the exit polls used?
Also, the chart would be more informative if the vertical scale on all the graphs was the same.
Regarding Jackson county:
I am going to have to correct myself, insofar as I mixed up Jacksonville (in Duvall county) with Jackson County. In my sojourns down the east coast, I never got as far south as Florida, so I will certainly defer to your knowledge of the geography.
I was under the impression that "yellow dog" Democrats are loyal; "blue dog" Democrats are the ones who vote against their party identification. (See www.yellowdogdemocrat.com.) I also formed the impression that the blue dog phenomenon had largely evaporated -- people who vote Republican now have either switched to that party or registered as independents.
Hillbilly or no, 71.5% of Jackson county dwellers are registered Democrats, yet a substantial majority went for Bush, according to the official count. Can that really be possible? I mean, do Jethro and Jed really like it when the minimum wage is kept low?
(I'll re-write the piece accordingly.)
Call me crazy, but couldn't someone "simply" arrange for calling random people and ask them if they voted and for whom? A delayed exit poll?
Or since http://ustogether.org/election04/florida_vote_patt.htm shows that the the smaller the county, the greater the "oddity" in voting, why not get together a few people, travel to a small and suspect county and spend your weekend knocking on every single door very politely explaining what you're doing and asking everyone how they voted? No preaching, just asking. Very politely. "Forgive them, for they don't know what they are doing."
Since most of those voting for Kerry will no doubt feel like having the morale high ground and a tendency to be "proud" of their vote, why not have them sign a piece of paper saying who they are, where they live, and whom they voted for, promising confidentiality if they'd like? And handing out the URL where they'll be able to look up your results. You can even have them send you directly to other people they know voted like them.
All you need are Kerry signatures, let's say 20-30% more than in the official tally, and you could literally be "saving the world". Or you could just save a lot of people from wasting a lot of time if it turns out the votes simply are what they are.
Liberty county in Florida would be a good one to enter the history books. According to http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm it has 88.3% registered Dems but went by a 30% margin Rep. There were 600 more voters from 2000, and every single one voted Rep. But really any suitable county near you will do.
So what are you waiting for? Get off your ass and get going instead of thinking how "someone should do something".
(And in case you're wondering, I'm not living in "The Free World". http://cagle.slate.msn.com/news/ChappatteBook/images/030903.gif)
The poster who suggested a "very late" exit poll mirrors my own thinking. Some of these smaller Florida counties with the bizarre results would seem to provide an excellent oportunity. How expensive could it be to poll a county of (say) only six thousand people?
!!- An electric voting machine in Ohio gives President Bush 0ver 3400 extra votes (this just reported on CNN's inside politics, Nov. 5th)... thats like 2% of the votes by itself!!!
!!- Some voters using e-voting machines not properly calibarated found that their votes for Kerry were defaulted for Bush. In fact, all their choices were opposite of their choices.
!!- Numerous voting "anomalies" have been reported.
We don't know if there is a conspiracy of voter fraud or not. I'd like to think not (perhaps wishful thinking). But lets try to be less conspiratorial here and focus on facts and numbers, it'll help the arguement.
Here's a couple questions, if we had the facts on these questions, maybe it would shed some light on what happened.
?- When machines were not calibrated properly, was the default always favoring Bush?
?- If yes, how many possible votes were cast incorrectly? In what voting districts? Democrat or Republican districts?
?- Who set this default choice? Who made/serviced the machines?
?- Are there reports of other machines giving out large or small "extra" votes for Bush? Did Kerry get any "extra" votes, or was it always Bush?
- The CEO of Diebold who manufactures e-voting machines stated publicly that he would do whatever is necessary to make sure Bush got the votes he needed in his state (Ohio, of course). Having such a partisan Bush supporter making voting machines makes me uneasy, but proves nothing in itself. (I'll try to dig up this link and post it later)
?- Can anyone find data on the default choices set for Diebold machines?
?- Was there any difference between the number of votes for Bush made on Diebold machines versus other e-voting machines? Do the numbers match other statistical data?
?- How many default votes per machine could result in a victory for bush in Ohio? Other states?
?- Could this be the reason why exit poll data does not mach the vote numbers?
Just some thoughts...
There is another explanation for the discrepancy between exit polls and actual vote tallies, being advanced by Greg Palast (gregpalast.com, also tompaine.com).
Namely, that the exit pools were accurate, but that heavy "spoilage" of ballots in minority and poor districts ( "undervotes" and "overvotes") and high numbers of uncounted provisional ballots in those same districts, account for the percentage of Bush's "win" in both Ohio and New Mexico, and conform to the exit polling.
In a word, Bush lost in both states, but the historically high rejection level of ballots in minority communities (poor facilities, poor machines, untrained poll workers, vote suppression by Republicans, long lines, etc.) gave him the win.
I posted the earlier message regarding Jackson Co. While I concede maybe confusing the terms "Yellow" vs "Blue" dog dems, I would still like to add my perspective as a native Floridian on the the voting issues in Florida addressed here so far.
As I said, the rural counties there already listed are notable by their unified allegiance against all things "yankee." Many proudly display the confederate flag on their pick up trucks. If you've ever spent any time in some of these rural counties like I have, you would know I'm not making this up.
You asked about why they would continue to settle for low minimum wage jobs. The fact is, many do not. While some are perhaps working minimum wage jobs, many in the central part of the state and in the central panhandle work for the Dept. of Corrections in the rural prisons making several grades higher that minimum wage. Many of these people are former military or married to them. Others work on family farms, raising peanuts or cattle -look at the vote in Iowa, and you might see a similar result.
They are very proud of their way of life. They go to their Southern Baptist churches every Sunday and sometimes on Wednesday, and would describe themselves as God-fearing Christians. These counties undoubtably have many national guardsmen and a few women, many of whom are former full-time military.
The western panhandle counties, such as Ft. Walton, Bay and Escambia are also where many military bases are located. Remember how pissed off the Reps. got in 2000 when the early poll results came in and they were afraid this would discourage voters in these counties?
One additional note about this - don't forget that Pensacola is where the abortion doctor was shot down in front of his home several years ago.
James Carville once said that Pennsylvania is Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in between. I would suggest to you that most of Florida north of Palm Beach ahs become a lot like Alabama, too. Kind of like the Hillbilly Republic.
I guess my point is again that the predictive validity of guessing a vote based upon party registration would probably be low in these counties. Focus on Ohio!
One more note I wanted to add - I fully believe there is evidence of voter fraud in several states, Florida included. All I'm saying is that I think our time would be better spent if focused on Broward county where they STILL haven't found all those missing ballots, and in the urban areas of Jacksonville...Anywhere where Deliverance wasn't filmed and they didn't elect Katherine Harris for State Representative.
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