Polls and cel phones

Can you hear me now? Good, because I have something to say about how cel phone usage may impact the polling data you've been reading.

You've probably heard about the phenomenon of CPO (cel phone only) voters -- that is, folks in the electorate who use cel phones as their sole means of telephonic communication. Pollsters cannot count these people, because they are forbidden by law from dialing cel phones.

Many believe that CPO-ers are youthful and skew Democratic. But pollsters insist that cel phoners are so few -- estimates run between four to seven percent of the population -- that poll results are not seriously affected by their inability to speak to this segment of our society.

So far, I've yet to hear anyone address the topic of "Quasi-CPOS," a category which has included yours truly.

Many millions of computer users have not joined the broadband revolution. These people tend to use their land lines for their dial-up internet connection.

Sure, they give out their land line number as their "home phone" when filling out forms; they may even place that number on business cards. Ocassionally, they even use the land line for good old-fashioned talking -- especially when the call is local, and the hours are between 5 and 7 p.m. But friends and family soon learn that if you want to get through to someone, use the cel phone number -- because the land line is being used for email or for reading the latest scoop from Harry Knowles.

The pollsters can call these telephone numbers, but how often do they get through? Personally, I rarely activated the ringer for my land line.

Two further questions: Do the Quasi-CPOs tend to vote Democratic? I think so, but no-one can be sure. Logic tells us that QCPOs are probably urban types, young, plugged into the information age -- but they have yet to "make it" in our society. That's why they haven't made the switch to DSL or cable. They're smart folks on a tight budget.

Would the Democratic-leaning CPO percentage rise if we counted QCPOs in that category? You be the judge!