It's semi-official...

"Peak oil" really was the prime motivating force for the Iraq invasion. Check out this article in the Asia Times. If you are wary of the inevitable pop-ups that accompany that site, here are some key bits:


In the months before he [Bush] became president, the United States had experienced severe oil and natural gas shortages in many parts of the country, along with periodic electrical power blackouts in California. In addition, oil imports rose to more than 50 percent of total consumption for the first time in history, provoking great anxiety about the security of the country's long-term energy supply. Bush asserted that addressing the nation's "energy crisis" was his most important task as president.

He and his advisers considered the oil supply essential to the health and profitability of leading US industries....


"America faces a major energy supply crisis over the next two decades," Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham told a National Energy Summit on March 19, 2001. "The failure to meet this challenge will threaten our nation's economic prosperity, compromise our national security, and literally alter the way we lead our lives."

The energy turmoil of 2000-2001 prompted Bush to establish the National Energy Policy Development Group (NEPDG), a task force of senior government representatives charged with developing a long-range plan to meet US energy requirements. To head this group, Bush picked his closest political adviser, Vice President Dick Cheney...


The group, as some of you will know, begat a report:


One-third of all the recommendations in the report are for ways to obtain access to petroleum sources abroad. Many of the 35 proposals are region or country-specific, with emphasis on removing political, economic, legal and logistical obstacles. For example, the NEP calls on the secretaries of energy, commerce and state "to deepen their commercial dialogue with Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and other Caspian states to provide a strong, transparent and stable business climate for energy and related infrastructure projects".

The Cheney report will have a profound impact on future US foreign and military policy. Officials will have to negotiate for these overseas supplies and arrange for investments that will increase production and exports. They must also take steps to ensure that wars, revolutions or civil disorder do not impede foreign deliveries to the US. These imperatives will be especially significant for policy toward the Persian Gulf area, the Caspian Sea basin, Africa and Latin America.

Applying the Cheney energy plan will have major implications for US security and military policy. Countries expected to supply petroleum in the years ahead are torn by internal conflicts, harbor strong anti-American sentiments, or both.


Here is where I think the rose-colored blinders slid over presidential eyes. I suspect -- don't laugh, just think about it -- that Bush hoped the removal of Saddam Hussein would have helped squelch anti-American sentiment in the region, thereby rendering local sentiment more amenable to America's wishes. Bush wanted to be seen as a liberator. Unfortunately, people would rather be dominated by a homegrown bastard than by a foreigner of any stripe -- which is why War and Peace includes no scenes of Russians cheering Napoleon's arrival. Besides, Iraqis noticed the selling off of all their assets to multinational concerns, even if Americans prefer to remain ignorant of such matters.

To continue our peek at the AT piece:


Under the Saddam regime, Iraq was a major oil supplier to the US. It provided an average of 566,000 barrels per day in 2002, or 5 percent of total imports. Many in Washington hope to obtain far more oil from Iraq in the future. According to the US Department of Energy, Iraq possesses proven reserves of 112.5 billion barrels, more than any other country except Saudi Arabia, and it is thought to possess another 200 billion barrels in undeveloped fields. Iraq could become a leading oil supplier in the decades ahead, if a stable government is established that opens territory to exploitation by US firms...


In its pursuit of petroleum, the US is intruding in the affairs of the oil-supplying nations. In the process, it exposes itself to increased risk of involvement in local and regional conflicts. This reality has already influenced US relations with the major oil-producing nations and is sure to have an even greater impact in the future.

At no point does the NEP acknowledge this. Instead, it focuses on the economic and diplomatic dimensions of the energy policy. However, the architects of the Bush-Cheney policy know that ensuring access to some oil sources may prove impossible without the use of military force. The administration's military strategy takes up the slack with heavy emphasis on bolstering capacity to project firepower to key battlefields abroad. "The United States must retain the capability to send well-armed and logistically supported forces to critical points around the globe, even in the face of enemy opposition," states its Quadrennial Defense Review.


There's much more to this meaty article, including a look at US oil policy in various regions around the world.

(PS: Sorry I've been blogging lightly this past week. Real life sometimes has a tendency to get in the way.)