The Clinton firewall is crumbling.
Trump is (very) slightly ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire, according to a poll by a CBS affiliate
(the kind of poll you'd consider quite credible if it delivered good news). Also here
(Added note: This poll
, rated A- by Nate Silver, puts Trump ahead by 1)
Another CBS affiliate puts Trump ahead by three points in Virginia
. This one's a major shocker.
“Both candidates continue to be shackled to high unfavorable ratings, Trump’s numbers went down eight points (54 percent) while Clinton’s numbers went up three points (57 percent) from a CPP poll conducted just one month ago.”
All of this comes after a CPP poll in early October revealed Clinton had a 12 point lead (45-33 percent) among likely voters. This is the first time Clinton has trailed in the CPP polls this year.
Trump has expanded his lead in Nevada, according to CNN/ORC
This is not one of those fly-by-night freaky-deaky easy-sleazy outlier polls. Nate Silver rates CNN/ORC an A-.
I'm not going to say "She's dead, Jim" until experts like Nate Silver
and Larry Sabato weigh in on these latest numbers. But there's no denying that this looks bad. I
expect my readers not to behave like the ostriches on the big Dem
websites who reflexively cry "concern troll" if anyone dares to mention
The good news
: The same CNN/ORC poll has Clinton up by two in Florida.
If Clinton can hold onto Florida -- and if the rest of the firewall stays in place -- Hillary can lose North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada and
Colorado. By my math (which you should double-check, since I didn't use a calculator), she would still have 276 electoral votes even if all of those other states went bye-bye. Hell, she could even lose New Mexico or Maine. Basically, we are talking about something much like the Al Gore/John Kerry map to victory, if the Supreme Court had permitted a full recount in Florida in 2000, and if the voting machines had behaved themselves in Ohio in 2004.
I don't know about you, but I get a sick feeling in my stomach when I think about this election being decided by Florida. The stench of 2000 still lingers in the nostrils. In that state, Donald Trump and his pals know where all the bodies are buried.
The hard truth is this: As her national numbers go down, Clinton's strength in the individual states has started to collapse. Generals always prepare to fight the last war, and Clinton's generals seem to have prepared for a 2012-style race. In my view, we are living through the first election not
fought state-by-state; instead, the battle is being waged in all 50 states simultaneously -- on Facebook
Before you say it:
Yes, I know that the NH and VA polls mentioned above are not the only
polls. We must pray for better numbers from other sources. I find it particularly hard to believe that VA has gone pink, since all other polling gives Hillary the lead in that state.
If there really is an anti-Trump "November Surprise" in the offing -- let's have it NOW NOW NOW.
Nate Silver just put NC and FL in pink.