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Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Polls

Foster McCollum White Baydoun is a polling firm I've never heard of previously. It's easy to call their new poll an outlier, since it puts Romney five points ahead in the must-win state of Michigan. Other polls have have Romney dipping a bit in the wake of the Paul Ryan selection. This conservative site says that FMWB has a Democratic clientele; the wording of the question on the Ryan budget certainly does not favor the GOP position. Nevertheless, the poll indicates that MI voters approve of that budget. These results, if accurate, are stunning -- especially since the Medicare voucher plan remains unpopular nationwide.

Let's wait and see what the more familiar pollsters have to say.

More generally, the polls in the swing states give Obama a razor thin margin, and his electoral college advantage -- even on TPM -- keeps dwindling. Everyone expected that Ryan would lose Florida for the GOP, but Romney has quietly gained in that state. Combine this "creeping momentum" with the new Jim Crow laws and the hard-right Secretaries of State in the swing states, and I don't see how Romney can lose.

Update: The PollTracker agglomeration of major polls puts Romney ahead for the first time. Odd how nobody seems to be making a big deal out of this. Romney accomplished this turnaround even though the headlines have not been favoring him.
Comments:
Relax. Polls have become meaningless at the margin - lots of people have given up home phones, and more and more don't answer them (or their cell phone if the caller is unknown) or are unwilling to put up with surveys. More and more don't speak English as their primary language. And polls are even more meaningless right now than at almost any other time, when people are most likely to be on vacation or simply out of the house.
 
Actually, PollTracker has Obama over Romney 46% to 45.4% -- a meaningless distinction, of course, given the margin of error. However, for the race to be so close, one has to include Rasmussen data; excluding them, as many pundits do, opens Obama's lead to 1.3 points, with 46.6 to 45.3.
 
These poll results depend heavily upon the asserted party affiliation weighting. (See: Rasmussen)

Not to mention that ad buys are targeted, and influence given states and not others.

XI
 
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