Further comments on the Zarqawi video

I'm glad that most readers understood that my intention in the previous post was to raise questions and to provoke debate, not to promulgate a conclusion. Lew Scannon offered this interesting comment:

I too, have doubts about the authenticity of the video, and posted on it when it first came out at unbrainwashed because in Z2 (which was the picture I used for comparison) his nose appears to be shorter than the video picture. But if this guy is hobbling around Iraq with a wooden leg, how has he not been captured when Saddam (who was rumored to have several doubles) was?

Did Zarqawi's nose "grow"? I tried to come to some sort of determination by overlaying the image I call (in the post below) Z2 with image Z4. I rotated Z4 so that the vertical axes lined up, and then enlarged the image so that the diameter of the iris of the right eyes matched in both images. Z2 has been tinted blue and Z4 has been colorized in magenta. I tried to match the position of the eyes as closely as possible. Here are the results:



As you can see, the noses appear to be of different sizes. However, since the angles do not match -- one head leans forward a bit more than the other -- we really cannot make a determination. We need better photos.

This right-wing site published a translation of the video as well as a frame capture which offers a better view of the ear. As noted earlier, the guys who do this sort of analysis professionally always like to get good, clear shots of the ears. Here is a blow-up of that frame grab compared to a detail from the image I call Z1 (and keep in mind the differences in lighting):


Here, the ears seem more similar in shape than was the case in our previous comparison, but I'm still bothered by the fact that "video Zarqawi" has ears resting flat against his head, while the earlier photos have protuberant ears.

Could the video be a high-tech fake involving manipulation of previously-existent footage? (The obvious point of reference here would be the LBJ scene in Forrest Gump.)

In the video, Zarqawi does make reference to contemporary events:

The crusade enemy, when invaded Iraq, meant to control this nation and reinforce the Zionist state, from the Nile to the Euphrates. However, Allah granted your sons the Mujahedeen by standing firm before the strongest crusaders attack to the Islamic land. They stood strong against this attack for over three years, disbursing their soles and their wealth.

The translator obviously meant "souls" instead of "soles." Z goes on to address W:

You became like the one who’s treating himself from alcohol by alcohol. You were never at any time truthful with yourself or your people, although it's found some truth in your great grandparents you are fully detached from.

The first sentence of this quote is actually kind of funny. I certainly hope that the second sentence is not a garbled reference to a notorious post which appeared on this blog on the first of this month.

Is it possible to use existing audio and video to make Zarqawi say things he never said?

Quite a while ago, we discussed a 1994 study titled The Revolution in Military Affairs and Conflict Short of War, by Steven Metz and James Kievit of the Army War College. One of the many topics addressed by this report is the possibility of replacing the television broadcasts of an adversarial nation with altered video. To illustrate how this tactic might be implemented, Metz and Kievet end their work with a fictional "after action report" describing an RMA-style campaign against Cuba:

Individuals and organizations with active predilections to support the insurgency were targets of an elaborate global ruse using computer communications networks and appeals by a computer-generated insurgent leader. Real insurgent leaders who were identified were left in place so that sophisticated computer analysis of their contacts could be developed. Internecine conflict within the insurgent elite was engineered using psychotechnology...

The attitude-shaping campaigns aimed at the American public, the global public, and the Cuban people went quite well, including those parts using computer-generated broadcasts by insurgent leaders--"morphing"-- in which they were shown as disoriented and psychotic.

Emphasis added. The reference to "computer communications networks" indicates one reason why the DOD would want the Zarqawi video posted online. (I suggest reading the entire report, which now seems eerily predictive of the Bush years.)

Readers should consult the important 1999 Washington Post article on how American PSYOPS units create convincing audio and video fakes. Also take a look at this 2002 story from the Guardian, which details how Swiss scientists exposed a Bin Laden audio tape as a forgery.

One other aspect of the new Zarqawi video bothers me. How could Zarqawi and his band train in the open desert and conduct live-fire exercises? We may presume that satellites scan every inch of Iraq continuously. Where and when was this footage taken?

A side note: Perhaps the most disturbing "data nugget" I discovered in the course of this research was a reactionary reader's comment posted on the aforementioned right-wing blog:

...remember my constant admonitions about what we're going to have to do with all the liberals and muslims before it's over. They are our enemies and will continue to try to destroy us if we don't kill them all.

(Emphasis added.) If these dreams of violence ever translate into acts, then our homegrown far-right fiends would conduct an orgy of destruction that would make 9/11 seem insignificant. Obviously, if a lefty repeatedly called for extinguishing millions of Americans, the FBI would -- properly -- investigate. But, even after Oklahoma City, Bush's secret police grant special privileges to the promoters of right-wing terrorism. They may say what others may not.