Thursday, July 07, 2005

Vote Fraud: New report

Professor Ron Baiman of the University of Chicago at Illinois has offered a new study of the 2004 vote. He refutes the "chatty Dem, taciturn Republican" theories which have taken root as the official explanation for the exit poll discrepancies.

"Using their (E/M's) data tables, we demonstrated that their hypothesis of outspoken Kerry supporters is implausible," explained Baiman. "If the polls were faulty because Bush voters were shy in the presence of Kerry voters and less likely to cooperate with pollsters, the polls should be the most accurate in the precincts where Bush voters were in the overwhelming majority and where exit poll participation was also at its maximum. What we find is just the opposite. In fact, the mean exit poll discrepancy was dramatically higher in Bush strongholds than in Kerry strongholds."
Yes, I know that "Febble" might have much to say about this specific point. But that's not all, folks:

Furthermore, the research team found that the same exit polls accurately projected U.S. Senate races; both the Presidential and Senate poll results are derived from the exact same responders.

"If Bush supporters were refusing to fill out the survey as hypothesized, the accuracy of the exit polls should have been just as poor in the Senate races as it was in the Presidential race," the research team charged in its report.
When you ask supporters of the "chatty Dem" theory to respond to this conundrum, what answer do you get...?

"Your qvestions haff become tiresome. Now is ze time on Shprockets ven ve dahnce!"

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Am I losing my brain, or does this post read "1994" where it should read "2004"? It could be the brain loss I've been experiencing, lately, or it could be a typo.

raybeckerman said...

Joe, can you give us a cite to the actual study you're quoting?
Thanks.
Best regards,
Ray

Anonymous said...

i've had it. if the dems won't fight for clean elections i guess we are all condemnded to repub rule.
the most popular lefty blog is now purging "conspiracists" because kos is worried about the site's credibility. this stems from some london bombing diaries, but has its roots in the debate about fraud in the 04 election, which kos discouraged.
mainstream dems won't face the facts about the election of 04 and grasp at any explanation for the exit poll discrepancy and largely ignore the evoting vulnerabilities. i'm tired of banging my head against the wall.

Anonymous said...

anon, if kos won't support you, just
change forums. Photocopy
half-sheet essays and leave them in
laundromats and on bus seats.
Yahoo Finance message boards are
a good place to spread truth. Also
check out freewayblogger.com

Take a break, take a deep breath,
and get back to work.