When you think about it, 216 years is a pretty good run, as democratic experiments go. Even so, let's all do our damnedest to keep the experiment going. Do not go gently, and all that.
Exit polls. "TruthIsAll," the nomme-de-net of a poster on the Democratic Underground, directs our attention to a startling new interpretation of the exit poll figures. I hope no-one will mind if I republish the material here.
Our attention is drawn, first and foremost, to
this CNN page displaying exit poll information. (The page takes a while to load.) TruthIsAll then asks:
Am I reading this correctly? If I am, we have the SMOKING GUN:
1) 59% of the 17% who did NOT vote in 2000 but who did in 2004 voted for Kerry. Just 39% for Bush.
2) 65% of those who did NOT vote for Bush or Gore in 2000 voted for Kerry. Just 13% for Bush and 16% for Nader.
3) 91% of those who voted for Gore, voted for Kerry.
4) 90% of those who voted for Bush in 2000, voted for Bush in 2004.
On the face of it, these exit numbers are just as damning as anything to come out of the Ukraine.
More on exit polls. Dr. Steven Freeman has
updated his investigation again. This summary says it all:
National Election Pool pollsters have acknowledged that their polls deviate from official totals by 1.9% nationwide (a 3.8% shift from Kerry to Bush) and intimated that this deviation was caused by disproportionate numbers of Bush voters refusing to participate in the polls. Analysis of the available data and theory, however, strongly suggests that at least part of the discrepancy is due to miscount. Moreover, a review of 2004 election processes suggests little reason for confidence that the count reflects either the intent of the electorate or the way that the votes were cast.
I expect this claim will meet with incredulity and anger. The idea of mass-scale electoral fraud in a US Presidential election may be difficult to fathom - or to stomach.
The paper is a draft version, labelled "not to circulate." But it is nonetheless on the net for anyone to read -- so read it.
Nota bene: If you've been following this controversy, you'll get a huge kick out of part 2 of Freeman's new work, in which he skewers "The Prevailing Theory" of the exit poll/actual tally discrepancy: "Bush Voters' Disproportionate Refusal to Participate." (Participate in the exit polls, that is.) In the past, I've called this the "chatty Dem" theory, which presumes that Republicans are preternaturally reticent to express an opinion. If you've ever met a Republican -- or if you've ever sampled the nazified thuggery over at the "Free Republic" site -- you'll understand why I've always considered
that presumption a gut-buster.
Freeman addresses the notion that Republicans are "busier" than Democrats -- too busy to talk to pollsters. But as the CNN chart cited above makes clear, the lower income groups all broke for Kerry. The working poor have far,
far less free time than do their economic superiors.
Conyers will challenge. John Conyers will
formally challenge the Ohio slate of electors, and he will not be the only House member to do so. Conyers believes that the flagrant illegal activity on the part of Kenny "the kapo" Blackwell justifies discounting the Ohio electors. The point appears indisputable, even if we restrict the argument to the deliberately lengthened election lines in Democratic districts.
As noted, Byrd might step in as the Senator supporting this objection. If he does, then the Bush 2005 election will always have an asterisk next to it -- the first election in well over a century to be formally challenged. And
that, my friends, will constitute a victory of sorts. Politics has always been a dirty game, but the Republicans have made matters far filthier, and this gesture -- even if symbolic -- will help awaken the world to that fact.
The recount. The recount in Ohio is over, although we have (as noted earlier) no reason to believe that the new count was any cleaner than the first one. Under Ohio's "three percent" rule, three percent of the precincts in each county were to be chosen at random for a confirmatory count; if the tallies were off, the full county would be recounted.
The Republicans, alas, had a very elastic interpretation of the words "at random," which they took to mean "
not at random." The recount, in short, had more "fudge room" than Willy Wonka's factory. This illegal maneuver -- and I have cited but one among many -- alone justifies the Conyers challenge to Ohio's electors.
Precinct cross-voting: In the past, we have discussed, briefly, how the rotating
order of names on the Ohio ballots may have helped Bush in Ohio. The situation, we now learn, was worse than we once thought.
This fine site explains the crime in detail, with lots of graphs and charts and all that good stuff.
The basic problem: A number of voting places served more than one precinct. The order of the names differed between the precincts. If a voter took a ballot into the wrong booth -- a not-infrequent occurrence -- his Bush vote might register as a Kerry vote, or vice-versa.
All right, you say -- but shouldn't that error skew in both directions? Not if the problem stays within a district such a Cuyahoga County, which heavily favors the Democratic party:
For Cuyahoga County, 602,048 votes are reported, more than 1/10 of the Ohio vote. Since John Kerry received 66.75 percent of the vote in this county, on average, given random events, he would lose two votes to cross-precinct voting to every vote Bush would lose. This estimate assumes a random distribution of cross-voting in relation to candidate support.
The statistics indicated otherwise -- a third mystery. Why is cross-voting unevenly distributed? Finding an answer to my question was not going to be simple. Since the precincts in the county are not all split 2:1 in Kerry's favor, where cross-precinct voting occurs will impact the ratio of lost and switched votes.
There's much
more. The bottom line is the the cross-precinct phenomenon occurred primarily in Democratic areas -- and that this phenomenon will almost always artificially boost the numbers of the less-popular candidate.
Additional indicators of fraud. If you are looking for a single story to send to Robert Byrd, send this Truthout
expose of vote fraud in Ohio. (If Byrd receives about a trillion copies of this piece, he'll have to read it at least once.) I can't help passing along a choice quote:
In the heavily Republican southern county of Perry, Blackwell certified one precinct with 221 more votes than registered voters. Two precincts - Reading S and W. Lexington G - were let stand in the officially certified final vote count with voter turnouts of roughly 124% each.
In Miami County's Concord South West precinct, Blackwell certified a voter turnout of 98.55 percent, requiring that all but 10 voters in the precinct cast ballots. But a freepress.org canvas easily found 25 voters who said they did not vote...
By contrast, in heavily Democratic Cuyahoga County, amidst record turnouts, a predominantly African-American precinct, Cleveland 6C, was certified with just a 07.85 percent turnout.
Nothing suspicious
here, folks.
Provisionally speaking. Here's a
fun fact you may want to pass along to your red state relatives:
Some 14.6% of Ohio votes were cast on electronic machines with no paper trail, rendering them unauditable. But on election night, electronic machines and computer software were used throughout the state to tabulate paper ballots. The contrasts are striking. Officially, Bush built a narrow margin of roughly 51% versus 48% for Kerry based on votes counted on election night. But among the 147,400 provisional and absentee ballots that were counted AFTER election night, Kerry received 54.46 percent of the vote. These later totals came from counts done by hand, as opposed to counts done by computer tabulators, many of which came from Diebold.
The story does not end there. As I've
noted earlier, we have good reason to suspect that Blackwell simply tossed out a number of provisional ballots that went for Kerry. Allow me to repeat a point I made on December 12:
According to an AP report, four out of every five provisional ballots were deemed acceptable. Yet in Cuyahoga County -- Kerry country -- that figure dropped to two out of three.
In order to reach the state-wide figure, the acceptability of the ballots must have been judged by a very,
very lenient standard in counties
outside Cuyahoga.
In Bush-land, Kenny's attitude was "Provisional ballots? Sure! We love 'em! No need to examine the details very closely -- we trust the voters!" Yet in Kerry-land, Kenny became a hard-ass: "Provisionals? I dunno -- these things can be mighty iffy. We'd better double-check and triple-check. Make sure the addresses and signatures are valid."
Despite this differing approach, and despite the fact that absentee/military votes often skew Republican, Kerry won 54.46 of the provisional/absentee ballots.
Recusal. Interestingly, Ohio Supreme Court Chief Justice Moyer refused to recuse himself in a case involving his own re-election. Here in California, any party to a minor lawsuit can ask for -- and receive -- a new judge without offering any reason for the request. But in Ohio, an elected official is allowed to decide a matter involving his own election.
Is there a
non-corrupt Republican judge anywhere in this country?
Didja know? Angry Girl, a blogger who is also in the band
Nightweed, has compiled a superb list of
20 Amazing Facts About Voting in the USA. I'll reprint just the facts; go to her page for the many supporting citations.
Did you know....
1. 80% of all votes in America are counted by only two companies: Diebold and ES&S.
2. There is no federal agency with regulatory authority or oversight of the U.S. voting machine industry.
3. The vice-president of Diebold and the president of ES&S are brothers.
4. The chairman and CEO of Diebold is a major Bush campaign organizer and donor who wrote in 2003 that he was "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year."
5. Republican Senator Chuck Hagel used to be chairman of ES&S. He became Senator based on votes counted by ES&S machines.
6. Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, long-connected with the Bush family, was recently caught lying about his ownership of ES&S by the Senate Ethics Committee.
7. Senator Chuck Hagel was on a short list of George W. Bush's vice-presidential candidates.
8. ES&S is the largest voting machine manufacturer in the U.S. and counts almost 60% of all U.S. votes.
9. Diebold's new touch screen voting machines have no paper trail of any votes. In other words, there is no way to verify that the data coming out of the machine is the same as what was legitimately put in by voters.
10. Diebold also makes ATMs, checkout scanners, and ticket machines, all of which log each transaction and can generate a paper trail.
11. Diebold is based in Ohio.
12. Diebold employed 5 convicted felons as consultants and developers to help write the central compiler computer code that counted 50% of the votes in 30 states.
http://www.wired.com/news/evote/0,2645,61640,00.html
13. Jeff Dean was Senior Vice-President of General Election Systems when it was bought by Diebold. Even though he had been convicted of 23 counts of felony theft in the first degree, Jeff Dean was retained as a consultant by Diebold and was largely responsible for programming the optical scanning software now used in most of the United States.
14. Diebold consultant Jeff Dean was convicted of planting back doors in his software and using a "high degree of sophistication" to evade detection over a period of 2 years.
15. None of the international election observers were allowed in the polls in Ohio.
16. California banned the use of Diebold machines because the security was so bad. Despite Diebold's claims that the audit logs could not be hacked, a chimpanzee was able to do it!
17. 30% of all U.S. votes are carried out on unverifiable touch screen voting machines with no paper trail.
18. All -- not some -- but all the voting machine errors detected and reported in Florida went in favor of Bush or Republican candidates.
19. The governor of the state of Florida, Jeb Bush, is the President's brother.
20. Serious voting anomalies in Florida -- again always favoring Bush -- have been mathematically demonstrated and experts are recommending further investigation.
A fine start, Angry One, but there is oh-so-much-more. A few more fun facts:
21. The money power behind ES&S is the Ahmanson family, which also supports Dominionism, an anti-democratic form of Christian theocracy.
22. In Warren county, Ohio, the el-fake-o "Homeland Security" alert allowed the Republicans to keep media observers out of the Board of Elections. Not only that, all Democratic and third-party observers were kept out as well.
Gee -- you think they'll have something to say about the vote? Rev. Jesse Jackson has announced that he and Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs-Jones will hold a press conference at 2 pm on Sunday, January 2nd, at the Olivet Institutional Baptist Church, 88th and Quincy in Cleveland.
Jackson has already said that the Ohio recount "was not conducted in a meaningful manner based on uniform standards as required by the equal protection and due process provisions of the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution."
Code orange. There is an international movement to make orange the official color of vote fraud protest. Not my favorite color, frankly. My lady
hates orange. How about black? Black is both elegant and funereal -- very much in keeping with the title of this particular post.