In light of Kerry's fine debate performance, am I going to take back my prediction of a Bush win? Nope. Look at some debate history, as preserved by Gallup.
Gore won the first debate against Bush, yet lost (well, sort of lost) the election.
Dukakis won the first debate against Bush the elder, yet lost the election.
Mondale won the first debate against Reagan (by a margin comparable to Kerry's recent win) yet lost the election.
In 1992, Perot trounced both Clinton and Bush, who tied each other. (The numbers: 38% - 28% - 28%.) As you may recall, Perot did not win that election.
History suggests that a first-debate win often translates into a massive election-day defeat. If Bush bounces back in the next debate -- and you can bet on it -- his miserable performance of two days ago will seem fluke-ish, not characteristic.
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