Did Donnie knock up Stormy? (Updated -- another porn star!)

The Trump scandals are very real, and they do wound -- but the wounds are never mortal. Liberals and moderates have to change that situation soon, because right now (and this is something MSNBC won't tell you) the Republicans are posed to gain seats in the Senate. The latest Marist poll indicates that Trump's number is rising.

These facts are unmentionable on the popular Democratic websites, due to the culture of "enforced optimism." Which I hate.

The economy explains why Republicans should feel some confidence. It all comes down to the infuriating fact that Republicans are allowed to run up huge deficits and Dems are not. As Lloyd Bentsen said in his '88 debate, "You know, if you let me write $200 billion worth of hot checks every year, I could give you an illusion of prosperity too."

That said, let's not overdo the pessimism. Indicators suggest that a new round of scandals might actually stake the vampire.

I finally caught up with the Lawrence O'Donnell interview with Michael Avenatti, the lawyer for Stormy Daniels. O'Donnell brought up the fact that the "hush" agreement covered not just incriminating photos but also "paternity" information. Frankly, the segment seemed rehearsed -- as though Avenatti knew that O'Donnell would drop the P-bomb, and O'Donnell knew that Avenatti would promise juicy revelations once his client was freed to speak her mind.

Stormy Daniels has one child born in 2011, not fathered by Trump. Presumably. (That said, I don't know who the actual father is. The existence of that child indicates that the biological clock ticked as loudly for Stormy as it does for other women.) If, on an earlier occasion, Trump conceived a child with Stormy Daniels, it is fair to speculate that she had an abortion, and that Trump paid for it.

And that would be the one thing that Trump's evangelical voters would never tolerate.

The abortion theory is making the Twitter rounds as we speak. To state the obvious, it is neither proven nor probable. Frankly, I'm not even sure whether one should use the word "rumor" or "theory." Whatever you choose to call it, the idea does make a certain sense.

It explains why the strange case of Stormy Daniels seems to bother Trump more than any other fling or accusation has bothered him. It explains why Melania (who, says Michael Wolff, accepts her husband's wandering nature) seems more chuffed by the Stormy Daniels affair than by any other allegation. It explains why previous leaks about the affair included the detail that Trump went in for unprotected sex. It may even explain Trump's bizarre "rage reaction" to Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the most loyal flack any political crook ever had. The poor woman's doing the best she can with what she has.

I once knew a former $3000-a-night escort. Lovely woman, within and without. At the time I knew her, she struggled with her deep and conflicted feelings about her abortion. Those conversations forced me to realize that we (and by "we," I'm talking mostly about men, though not only about men) tend to think about our culture's "sex goddesses" without ever considering nature's intended purpose for sex. When we think of these women, we think of sex divorced from reproduction.

This is a hoary problem. (No puns, please.) In the 19th century, a French aristo might spend decades meandering among the demimondaines without worrying about how many "accidents" were handled via infanticide, which was surprisingly common in that era. In modern times, we tend to presume that a woman famed for her sexuality must perpetually be on the pill -- either that, or she has undergone tubal ligation.

But this is not necessarily the case, is it?

There are two major arguments against the theory that Trumpy knocked up Stormy. First, she did not hint at such an outcome in her In Touch interview, which she gave before signing the NDA. Second, an alleged billionaire presidential candidate desperate to cover up a freakin' abortion really should have offered more than $130,000. Or to put it another way: Stormy should have demanded more.

(Come to think of it: Why didn't the magazine publish that interview before the election? Was there another pay-off supposedly handled by Michael Cohen's on-paper "corporation"? Paging Mr. Mueller...!)

We should mention the other Trump sex story to rain down on us today. If you're looking for something as, er, juicy as the Steele dossier, urine for a treat:

The Act was no ordinary nightclub. Since March, it had been the target of undercover surveillance by the Nevada Gaming Con­trol Board and investigators for the club’s landlord — the Palazzo, which was owned by GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson — after complaints about its performances. The club featured seminude women performing simulated sex acts of bestiality and grotesque sadomasochism — skits that a few months later would prompt a Nevada state judge to issue an injunction barring any more of its “lewd” and “offensive” performances. Among the club’s regular acts cited by the judge was one called “Hot for Teacher,” in which naked college girls simulate urinating on a professor. In another act, two women disrobe and then “one female stands over the other female and simulates urinating while the other female catches the urine in two wine glasses.” (The Act shut down after the judge’s ruling. There is no public record of which skits were performed the night Trump was present.)

As the Act’s scantily clad dancers gyrated in front of them late that night, Emin, Goldstone, Culpo and the rest toasted Trump’s birthday. (He had turned 67 the day before.) Trump remained focused on Emin and their future partnership. “When it comes to doing business in Russia, it’s very hard to find people in there you can trust,” he told the young pop singer, according to Goldstone. “We’re going to have a great relationship.”

I give the final word to Kurt Eichenwald:

As I watch their hypocrisy & their greater dedication to politics than Christianity, I am truly - and I mean truly - beginning to wonder if folks like @Franklin_Graham, @JerryFalwellJr, @GovMikeHuckabee and others actually believe in the religion at all, or just use it for gain.

Added note: I've been sitting on a story about Erik Prince for days now -- since before the latest revelations. Other revelations will probably hit before tomorrow's sunrise. I'm going to let this one marinate a while longer.

Update. And this is a pretty important update. Some tweets speak for themselves...

Something I'd love to see a reporter ask Trump Org about: 1) Cohen formed EC LLC on Oct 17 2016 2) The contract provided for EC LLC to pay Stormy $130K by Oct 27 2016 3) Between Oct 17 & Oct 25, the Trump campaign made payments to Trump Org properties that add up to $129,999.72.

That lovely bit of digging was done by DC attorney Susan Simpson. One of her readers notes that Trump's last rally in Vegas was in June.

Also, see the latest from TPM. Basically, the hush agreement mentions four people who saw naughty Trumpian photos before the agreement was signed (if I understand the sitch aright).

So who are these people?

Gina Rodriguez is herself a former porn actress who became an entertainment talent rep after leaving the business and has repped numerous people involved in scandals, people who became famous for odd or weird reasons as well as people in the porn business. One of her highest-profile clients was the so-called “Octomom”, Natalie Suleman. Here’s a write up of her in the Times from a few years ago. She has a fascinating story. Rodriguez is also Stormy’s rep.

Keith Munyan is a celebrity photographer in Hollywood who has at least been involved in shooting some of Stormy’s calendars and other photo shoots. Notably, he shot Stormy’s 2007 Calendar. According to the lawsuit, that was when Daniels and Trump were still having an affair. It’s not clear to me who Mike Moshey (?) or Angel Ryan are.

The handwriting suggests that the name could be Moshey or Moshely. However, after checking Google and Pipl, I can't find anything to indicate the existence of a Michael Moshey or Moshely. (Pipl does list a couple of people named "Michael Moshey" but their listed relatives indicate that the real name is Mosley.)

Angel Ryan turns out to be another adult actress named Jessica Drake. She has independently accused Trump of harassment. Her lawyer, the inevitable Gloria Allred, confirms that Ryan and Drake are one and the same.

From the WP, October of 2016:

An adult film actress on Saturday accused Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump or someone acting on his behalf of offering her $10,000 and the use of his private jet if she would agree to come alone to his hotel suite at night after a golf tournament in Lake Tahoe in 2006.

Jessica Drake, who spoke at a news conference alongside attorney Gloria Allred, said she met Trump while working a booth at the tournament for her employer, Wicked Pictures. Trump then invited her and two other women to his suite in the evening, where, while wearing pajamas, Drake said he kissed the women each in turn without their permission.

According to Drake, after the group left his suite, a man called and asked her to return alone. When she declined, Drake said she was then called by Trump, who asked to her to come to his suite for dinner and a party. “What do you want?” she said he asked. “How much?”

Later, she said Trump, or a man calling on his behalf, called again, this time with the monetary offer, which she said she declined.

So why would Stormy show a "secret" photo (which may well depict the Trumpian junk) to Jessica? I dunno. Perhaps for the same reason people go to zoos: Curiosity. You never know when the orangutan is going to start playing with himself.