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Thursday, October 27, 2016

I, prophet

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge. "

-- Lao Tzu

"There are two types of forecasts: Lucky and wrong."

-- Unknown


This blog's record for political prognostication has not stunned. I'm pleased to admit my many errors: Pleased, because I'm a born pessimist who habitually bets on the worst possible outcome.

Alas, throughout this horrid election, my intuitive leaps have not led to the abyss, and my presumptions of the worst have not led to apologies. No blog preceded Cannonfire in proclaiming Trump to be Putin's puppet. Well before most people understood Tad Devine's history, this blog said that Roger Stone's operation had gotten its hooks into the Bernie Sanders campaign.

Now I'd like to share something I wrote to a couple of contacts on September 12 (slightly redacted for reasons which should be obvious):
...it's pretty obvious that the Assange "October Surprise" will involve Teneo. It'll all be bullshit, of course, but it'll be impossible to sort it through before the election.

Expect to hear the name of a former journalist named Ron B. (formerly of Raw Story) who has been obsessing on Teneo for months. I had a behind-the-scenes run-in with him back in 2012. Bottom line, I got the impression that the guy had gone crazy. I don't mean eccentric or odd -- I'm talking about a serious breakdown.

During this same time, he was having some really weird interactions with the Breitbart/Judicial Watch crowd. Those guys used to hate him, and suddenly they have embraced him. I don't claim to understand the whole thing.

At any rate, what B. is saying about Teneo seems to jibe with the hints we are getting from Assange and Stone.
Now see here.

And, of course, here.
Comments:
*yawn*

I admit I only skimmed the articles, but...that's it?

Even if it be true, SFW? Politics as usual.

*yawn again*
 
Remember, Bill, much of this country lives within an alternative news ecosystem. When it comes to the Clintons, that ecosystem is able to transform molehills into mountains. Benghazi and the emails were nothingburger stories to you and to me, but they nevertheless were mightily effective as agit-prop.

Think about it: According to TPM, the gap between Clinton and Trump shrank from 10-point-something around the time of Debate 3 to 3.6 now. This shift happened at a time when the "normal" media was publishing nothing but terrible stories about Trump, and Trump himself was making gaffe after gaffe, as is his wont.

At this rate, twelve days is enough time for him to grasp victory. I think Michael Moore is right.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNDo0ftcqds&feature=youtu.be


 
Apparently, the GOP establishment disagrees with Moore. They are concentrating on holding the Senate.
 
Michael Moore is right about the feelings and motivations of the Trump voter. What he is doing is acknowledging those Trumpians, so that they feel like "For god's sake SOMEBODY is finally listening to me!".

Having thus been heard, they won't bother to actually vote.
 
I think they'll actually vote, but they're men. It's whether the women vote, and there are more of us.

An anecdote from a blue state: my neighbor has been recovering from an operation, and basically slept for two days, then decided to go early vote (for Hillary!) to energize himself. He's voted early in the last two presidential elections, but this was the only one where he had to wait an hour to cast his early vote.

Turnout = good news for Hillary!
 
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