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Thursday, March 10, 2016

What if Trump wins Florida and Ohio?

Most observers speak as though Trump victories in Florida and Ohio will, in effect, put the nomination in the bag. A few posts down, I said that Florida was a must-win for Rubio -- otherwise, nothing can deny Trump a first-ballot victory at the convention: "Yes, that goal would still be possible technically. It is also technically possible that I'll start dating Katy Perry next year."

Realistically, we must now admit that Rubio can't win his home state (at least not without some serious electoral hugger-mugger). The WP is already writing the man's political obituary.
But a cloud of fatalism now hovers over his campaign. Aides on Wednesday tried to beat back rumors he would quit the race — perhaps before Thursday’s CNN debate in Miami. Donors exchanged grim messages about Rubio’s fate in Florida, where his campaign, short on cash, is running no advertisements. New polls showed him trailing Trump here badly.
So it's no go, Marco -- and Trump gets the nomination.

Hold on. Is that really the case? A closer look at the numbers suggests otherwise. What we presumed to be impossible may, in fact, be possible.

(Perhaps I should grab some roses and chocolate and knock on Katy's front door. I call her Katy now. No, I haven't yet told her that I'm a classical music aficionado and am thus unfamiliar with her work. I'm saving that for the second date.)

Writing in The Federalist, Sean Davis argues that even if Trump wins both Florida and Ohio, he still has an uphill road.
There are a total of 2,472 delegates at stake. The winner must win 1,237 of them. As of today, Donald Trump is not even close to that. He’s not even close to half that amount. Trump has won 44 percent of delegates pledged so far, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has won 34 percent, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has won 15 percent, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich has won 5 percent.
If Trump wins Ohio and Florida (165 delegates), he’ll still need to win 48 percent of the remaining delegates, and to date he’s won only 44 percent of them. Winning Florida helps Trump, yes, but not all that much, and not nearly as much as winning four of the other March 15 states would help him. This fact is why the Florida focus is so short-sighted.
Florida and Ohio are winner-take-all states. Most other states award delegates proportionately. As long as Trump has competition, he will be prevented from winning 48 percent of the remaining delegates.

That's why Rubio has to stay in.

That's also why Cruz -- paradoxically -- is the candidate offering the most help to the Republican Establishment's "Stop Trump" surge: Cruz steals votes from Trump. Cruz and Trump appeal to the same dim-bulb voters -- religious nuts, conspiracy nuts, wrestling fans, people who think that Slender Man is real, people who think that Triumph is an actual talking dog, etc. The paradox, of course, is that the Establishment hates Cruz almost as much as it hates Trump.

The primaries were front-loaded with southern states filled (on the GOP side) with dim-bulb voters. This arrangement gave an advantage to Trump and Cruz. The remaining states have a greater number of voters with a built-in resistance to the Trump Virus.

Under normal circumstances, the candidate who wins big on Super Tuesday, and in Florida, and in Ohio, would have a hammerlock on the nomination. The GOP likes to decide on a nominee early on. Right-wingers traditionally have been much better than left-wingers when it comes to lining up and marching together. There is no I in TEAM, and all that.

But this is no ordinary election. Even if Trump wins in Ohio and Florida, the public is starting to tire of his creamsickle-colored shtick.

Question: Who takes his place?

Rubio, the Establishment candidate, must stay in the race for tactical reasons: He can help deny Trump from securing that all-important first ballot win. There is still the possibility that Rubio might emerge victorious if the convention devolves into chaos. That said, I don't see much of a future for Rubio if he loses in Florida.

Cruz? Let me put this as politely as possible: He is an acquired taste -- one that many people would prefer not to acquire.

That leaves Kasich. He would prove the most formidable candidate against Hillary. He would remind the world that the GOP has not gone totally bonkers.
It seems to me that anyone selected by the the Republican convention other than Drumpf (assuming he has the most delegates going in but not enough to secure a first ballot majority) will be a kind of sacrificial lamb. Be it Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, Mitt (haha) or none of the above, that poor schlub's nomination would automatically trigger a (literally?) balls-out 3rd party effort (possibly a write-in campaign) by the Huge Oompaloompa Blowhard. His now totally out-of-control personality disorder wouldn't allow any other response to having the steering wheel pried from his tiny hands. (it's also why someone ambitious and relatively secure in his current position like Paul Ryan would never accept being drafted) In which case, no matter who has the (R) next to their name on the ballot will be headed for a monumental ass-kicking in November (including return to minority status in the Senate, end of the Supreme Court majority, etc) and will be the final nominee ever of any semblance of what the Republican Party as we've known it.
This Blog is starting to nauseate me. Honestly. Just change the name to "I Hate Donald Trump Blog" because, well, he isn't polite enough for you Did you lose money at the Trump Casinio or something?

Try a little recognition of reality: Trump represents a lot of very angry people who are totally dissatisfied with "business as usual" in Washington, and is the only candidate who could effect some change of direction from the present trajectory of total failure. Which is why I predict he will easily win the general election.

Why should he have to apologize for this that and the other anyway? If some are offended, too bad for their special snowflake asses. Never apologize, never explain, who cares what other people think. You sound like a whiny Democrat or a cuckservative, "Oh no, he said a bad word!"
Normally, I would toss this kind of comment into the spam filter. But I thought readers might like to see an example of the kind of person who supports Trump.
If Trump loses the first ballot it won't be Kasich with his handful of supporters who wins instead. It will be the even slimier Cruz. Even if it was Kasich, he would be humiliated by failing with the actual voters. At least Trump is entertaining. And maybe Hopsicker's latest piece is right and the media are just waiting to unleash all the stories of Trumps corruption to allow Hillary an unobstructed win. Like you with Biden's mysterious secret, Joe.
All one has to do is look at the math that shows Trump winning less than 50% of the delegates in almost all the contests to know he won't get the plurality he needs. However, if too many candidates drop out then Trump will Triumph. (see how I did that, Trump, Triumph, that is why he is winning, because there is a hi in Triumph named Trump). Hi Trump, Triumph. It's all because of his name, and that is the true conspiracy!

Christie and Bush should have stayed in but simply held back until the race hit their neck of the woods rather than spending all that money and getting no delegates.

Joseph, thanks for letting the Anon comment (always Anon's, aren't they?) through. I see that sort of thing on Facebook all the time, only with far more spelling and grammatical errors.

Trump is simply not electable. If he gets the nomination, his mob ties, his bankruptcies, his corruption....all will be hammered on to clear the way for Hillary. Of course, she will get hammered as well, being a Clinton and all. However, of the two, I think she's the one who could actually handle it.

Anon saying "never apologize, never explain, who cares what people think". Yeah, that will go great in diplomatic relations, won't it? Unless you want the entire world at war with us (and make no mistake, we would loose badly......or worse, everyone would when the Donald unleashed nuclear hell and the Chinese and Russians respond in kind). The Donald is proof of the vast ignorance and stupidity that is much of the American public (what is his plan of achieve any of the ephemeral goals he talks about? who cares about plans, he says what he wants!!) . I'm no fan of Hillary, but Trump makes her look like JFK in comparison. If you really want a return of hardcore fascism, vote for Drumpf.
Don't vote for Trump because he's a buffoon.
Don't vote for Cruz because he's not running for president, he's running for messiah
Don't vote for Rubio, because he really is just a little kid.

Vote for Kasich because he's not batshit crazy!
" I thought readers might like to see an example of the kind of person who supports Trump." LOL

Read your own words in the last few posts again, they reek of the kind of intellectual arrogance that says, in effect, "You must be stupid if you disagree with me!".

My main point was, and still is: Trump is the ONLY candidate excepting possibly Sanders who has pledged:

-not to passs the TPP (reason enough to vote for him on it's own!)
-no more foreign wars for no good reasons (another winning policy!)
-to actually do something about illegal Mexican immigration
-withdraw forces from Europe, forcing them to actually pay for their own defence
-not to favor Israel to excess on every issue every time (Sheldon Adelson is in panic mode)
-to not be automatically RUsso-phobic, unlike almost every idiot in Washington who still thinks we are still in the 1980s

Those are just 6 ready examples that come to mind quickly. Which is why I could not care less about if he is rude, impolite, didn't apologize etc. And these resonate strongly with ordinary people who really feel the Washington elite have failed them in every possible way.

Which is more important, the long term effects of his policies for the nation, or his abrasive personality? This is not a high school popularity contest or Facebook "Like" count.

Kasich voted for NAFTA in 1993, a policy that I read today cost Ohio alone at least 112K jobs. Cruz voted to fast track TPP, then flip-flopped afterwards.

Hilary looks to be running for prison soon, the e-mail affair keeps blowing up larger day by day, never mind the countless other corruption stories - how about that Russian mining company that donated $2M to her "Foundation" then got a nice deal to mine in Oregon, to name just one of countless examples? - which makes her such an easy target for hundreds of different attack ad angles there is no way she could win a general election, if she is still running by then. If she doesn't drop out soon Sanders won't be able to get his name on the ballots in many States.

You can level whatever insult you want at Trump supporters, but I would say they clearly have a firm street level insight into what really matters in the big picture. Sanders has many of the same policies, from what little I have read about him, so the choice seems obvious Trump, or Sanders for lefties, and certainly none of the others. How about a Trump/Sanders ticket (LOL ok j/k)?
Anon, good post. Does it bother you at all that Trump was a Democrat until recently? That he is a long time close friend of the Clinton's? That he has mob ties, that he has multiple bankruptcies, that he made his fortune off of money his dad gave him (and he could be far richer than he is if he had just put that money into a money market account and done nothing else), or that so many ventures he gave his name to turned out to be total scams? THAT is what bothers me about Trump. Well, that and his apparent belief that President's can make and change laws all on their own. Oh, his blatant racism doesn't help either, or his making fun of disabled people. You really want a game show host as President? You're not concerned about his neo-con advisors?

Personally, Sanders is the only candidate I really like, and he has his own issues that concern me (mostly in the area of foreign policy).
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