Of the "beige" states on PollTracker's famed chart, the only one that Obama stands any chance of winning (in my opinion) is Michigan. That would put him -- just barely -- over the 270 mark. So one strategy would be to give up on all of the other beige states and then pour all of his funds and all of his energy into MI. 

But now there are strong signs that Obama may lose Nevada. His edge there has been dwindling. Don't be surprised if it reddens after the Republican convention.

Also, the polling firm Mitchell Research has been consistently giving Romney the advantage in Michigan.

Personally, I think Gallup and Rasmussen offer the most accurate polling -- in this sense: The degree to which the conservative polls differs from other polls represents the percentage of fraud that the Republican vote-riggers would dare to attempt. That difference equals, if you will, the weight of the thumb on the scale.

Of course, when there is no paper trail, only pre- and post-election polling offers any indication as to the voter's intent.

Since Michigan's secretary of state is a hard-core Republican, she'll no doubt be down with those scurrilous efforts to suppress "voting while black." On the other hand, MI does have a paper ballot.

That happy fact -- and that happy fact alone -- gives Obama a chance. I still say that Romney has, if not a lock, then a massive advantage.

Don't say this election doesn't matter. I don't like Obama -- I still consider him the worst thing to hit the Democratic party in decades -- but I despise the prospect of a 7-2 conservative Supreme Court. Don't you dare try to convince me that Obama's picks would be no better: I admire Elena Kagan, and I want to see more Supreme Court judges like her.

Unless we can overturn Citizens United, there is no hope for this country.

In recent elections, the contest usually comes down to one state -- maybe two. Which state or states do you think will be decisive in 2012?