Thursday, January 12, 2012

How to start a war

Of course the car-bombings of Iranian nuke scientists are the work of Israel. Even the New York Times and Fox News point in that direction, which means that the artist wants a signature on his canvas. What's interesting is the methodology: There are quieter, subtler ways to kill people.

The Obama administration has strongly denied any involvement. However, the Jerusalem Post, citing a respected blogger named Richard Silverstein (who in turn cites an Israeli intelligence source), claims that Mossad trained terrorists from the People's Mujahedin of Iran (MEK), and that the US was necessarily involved. Silverstein's blog post is here; come to your own assessment.

In a more recent post, Silverstein writes:
What’s disingenuous about this approach is that the U.S. and Israel are joined at the hip in this black ops war against Iran. They developed Stuxnet with Israel. The very same MEK terrorists sticking magnetic bombs to the car doors of Iranian scientists are the ones our government is considering giving a clean bill of health by removing them from the terror list.
Silverstein goes on to ask the right question:
If Iran were assassinating Israeli scientists or the Soviet Union assassinated Edward Teller or J. Robert Oppenheimer does anyone in their right mind believe it wouldn’t arouse a fierce backlash against the perpetrators?
Conclusion: The Israelis hope to provoke a reaction. The car bombings cannot seriously slow the Iranian nuke program, but they can prod Iran to retaliate. In doing so, Iran would give the U.S. the casus belli which the neocons seek.

Israel wants war.

Why would Obama go along with this dangerous game? Well, I haven't seen much "Obama hates Israel" propaganda this election season. And Obama has raised money at an impressive clip.

As Gary Sick writes...
A war with Iran would not be surgical, brief, or one-sided. As memorably noted by Gen. Anthony Zinni, if you like Iraq and Afghanistan, you will love Iran. It is a huge country, well-defended, with a fierce sense of nationalism. No air campaign, even if prolonged, will end the problem. Regardless of how a conflict begins, it is most likely to end with lots of boots on the ground. A squad of special forces will not do the job.

Paradoxically, the quickest way to insure that the Iranians decide to go for a bomb may be to bomb them. The most predictable result of a military strike would be Iran's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the ejection of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and cameras that watch every step of the Iranian enrichment process.
On the domestic political front: Mitt Romney has given clear signals that he supports the war conspiracy.

Obama? Despite the words written above, he seems to be more of a mixed bag. Although he may be as oily as Romney -- well, almost as oily -- the two men represent differing constituencies. The Democratic party leadership does not want war with Iran. The Demcoratic rank-and-filers, who have put up with an infinitude of crap from this president, will not tolerate that level of military adventurism.

Corrupt Obama may be, but I've never called him a neocon, and I don't think he wants to repeat Dubya's disaster on a larger scale.

On the other hand, it is likely that his administration allowed Israel and MEK to carry out these bombings. My guess is that he intends to play along with the war conspirators until re-election is secured. Until that point, he hopes to keep the pot bubbling without boiling over.
I think you are right. Its all about the Causus Belli.

Col. Pat Lang's blog notes Panetta's comment about Iran working towards nuclear capabilities but not towards a nuclear weapon. He also notes that the odds of significant resistance to a US Navy intervention in the Gulf are small. US Navy has some pretty awesome capabilities, and its tough to play gorrilla war on the high seas.

Im not 100% convinced but its about tail risks. Did you ever read about the 2002 Millenium Challenge war games? And Admiral Van Riper? It seems to me sometimes entrenched special interests down play risks and play up rewards to get their way.

Like when the King of Lydia went to see the Delphic Oracle about the risks associated with war with Persia.

On another note have you come across the "I was just sh*tting you people" piece from this blog. I just thought it might amuse...

Car bombings do send a message to potential nuclear recruits: "We will kill you." Might just affect people who were thinking of getting into the atomic business.
You know, if I was an Ayatollah, I would authorise a program of tit for tat attacks on American and Israeli scientists.

But not right now. Better to just go into the planning stage. After all, doing it carefully avoids many problems.

I might look at other retaliatory measures. After all, what would we do?

I guess I see this one differently or look at it from a different angle. Kind of like what Bob said. I thought it was foolish for Iran to release the information. This unequivocally demonstrates that Iran cannot protect its scientists especially since this is the 4th scientist killed.

The car bomb is a deterrent made to look like a terrorist attack. However, one can also believe that there are people within Iran that do not want to become nuclear because, frankly, it will end badly for them.

Now I do believe Israel is most likely responsible but I have a hard time believing that Iran can do anything about it. If Iran declared war on Israel they'd destabilize the whole region and possibly alienate their own allies in the process. They'd have zero chance in a war and much of their infrastructure would get wiped out.

What is likelier to happen is that Iran arranges some sort of retaliatory terrorist bombing targeting Israeli's. This kind of one upping terrorism could go on indefinitely. The wild card in the whole deal is the USA and the neocon insanity. In my opinion, if war happens it will be because of their influence.

As you've reported they are constantly beating the drum of war with Iran. Now whether it is because Israel wants them to or because they have an undying dream to usher in Armageddon I have no idea. Unfortunately, they are well funded and have considerable influence.
Sir, if a gentleman were to pose an artistic project to various persons, say perhaps at, and yet he defaults on his promise, what would you expect him to do to fulfill his promise?
Anon, I would expect him to stay alive. And I would not expect very much out of him if he were without a job, without a single dollar -- no exaggeration -- and scrambling very hard not to be evicted into the cold eastern winter without shelter.

I cannot work on a comic book under these circumstances. I want that more than anything in the world, but I can't. I can't even afford the damned paper. I can't afford ink.

I will as soon as I can, if I survive. But you have NO idea how I am living right now.

If you have any further questions, my address is above.
Recommend discussion about this assassination and who might be responsible at Moon of Alabama!

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