Tuesday, February 24, 2009

"Knowing the man as I do..." (Is this for real? I believe so)

Liberal Rapture presents a fascinating email exchange between an Obama supporter and an Obama opponent. The "hook" here is that the anti-O person developed a distaste for the man based on real-life face-to-face interaction.

Unfortunately, LR strips the names from this exchange. That decision allows for cries of "fake." I have a long-abiding interest in literary hoaxes, and I don't think that this is an example of the genre. Perhaps the persons involved with these missives will identify themselves?

(The Obama supporter is said to be a well-known writer. Josh Marshall and Joe Conason seem likely candidates. The few private emails from Marshall that I've received or seen bear a stylistic resemblance.)

This post will offer a few excerpts. I'll boldface the bits that seem most revealing, and the added paragraph breaks should increase readability. For purposes of clarity, we will, for now, call the guy who dislikes Obama "Fred." As for the guy who likes Obama -- let's call him "Ed." If Fred or Ed is actually female (or if both are female), I will apologize. If you can think of any female names that rhyme with Fred and Ed, let me know.

We open with the words of Fred. He gently (too gently) chastises Ed for Ed's displays of knee-jerk Clinton Derangement Syndrome:
I also think you are way too critical of Bill Clinton. He certainly had his faults, but not everything bad in life can be laid at his door. And, he isn't as venal as I think you believe him to be. As intelligent as he is, he is also a product of his time, his upbringing and his personality. You do ignore the fact that his Vice President did try to - albeit far from boldly enough - begin to build an infrastucture and education of the public that might lead away from insane oil dependence and toward a more sustainable way of life. And, I think you forgive Bush II his real agency in creating the morass we are in today...
You get the picture. Ed really believes that everything that has gone wrong since 2000 was all the fault of that awful, awful Bill Clinton. Proof, once again, that Obots are psychotic.

Here's Fred again, on his interactions with O-man:
At a very fundamental level, I have no idea on what you base your belief that Obama is "basically honest and intelligent." Knowing the man as I do, including the people he surrounds himself with (and no -I'm not talking about just his spiritual counselors but those people who have nurtured his political career and on whom he relies for advice), I have found him to be a rather deceitful person who, certainly, is smart enough but whose vaunted intelligence is vastly overrated - his judgment even more so.

First, to address the claims I've heard so many make that he must be intelligent in light of his graduating from HLS. Believe me - having attended an Ivy League law school myself - I know that such attendance is not a proxy for intelligence. Nor is becoming president of the law review when it is a popularity vote as opposed to merit-based based on assessment of scholarship. (I also am only a few years younger than Obama and am African-American, so I fully understand that the bar for entering a top law school is higher for people of color - that doesn't make all of us geniuses just by the mere fact that we were there.)

Moreover, I haven't found his writing (which has only been about himself) or his post-graduate career to be anything that would lend me to think more highly of his intelligence.
More importantly, I've had the opportunity to meet and talk with Obama in small, intimate settings and gain a better sense of the man than anyone can based on t.v. interviews and his ubiquitous speechifying. (I was for many years active in the Democratic party. I also worked for some years for an investment bank which was a major backer of Obama from the time he ran for the Senate. And, he was eager to spend lots of time with the top bankers of Wall St in small dinner settings in glorious NY penthouses. I was often invited along simply because I was one of the few blacks at my bank they could invite to "color" these dinners.)
Over the next months I then was able to talk with him and hear him talk in various fundraising venues - which is where he spent most of his short time in the Senate before hitting the presidential campaign trail. (The first time post-convention was at George Soros' house). I came away each time a little more uneasy, particularly when it became clear he was going to run for President. He skims the surface of issues and problems. In fact, his remarks, when not prepared come across as vapid. He repeats, like rote, tired democratic tropes. (And frankly many Republican ones. He truly does admire Reagan and not just because Reagan won elections).

He seems to have spent little to no time in deep introspection about any particular area of policy. He spent very little time at his actual job in the Senate or doing any substantive work - which was similar to his time in the IL State Senate. (What was little remarked upon when he ran for US Senate or POTUS was what a mess the Chicago district he represented was left when he advanced to the US Senate during a period when even poor districts in the country got at least somewhat better.)

He certainly - for someone whose father (like mine) is African and who (as did I) lived overseas for a time - seems to at bottom be relatively incurious about geopolitics. And, he would get a glazed look in his eyes and look about for someone else to move on to when I raised questions about how he would address the looming US financial crisis I could see on the horizon.

All in all, I found him to be a completely conventional politician - interested in his own advancement - with no particular personal vision for the future of this country or the world.
Comparing Obama to Bush, I begin to wonder: Has the job of running for presidency become so difficult that the only individuals who will brave those obstacles are those who do so for reasons having nothing to do with policy, ideology or ability? Dubya ran for the highest office because "God" told him to do it -- meaning, he was trying to one-up his father. Similarly, Obama seems to have pursued the office in order to settle personal self-esteem issues.

Fred continues:
This was why his entire campaign rested on the ephemera of "hope and change" which could mean anything one wanted it to mean, along with a list of plagarized policy "positions" taken from other democratic primary candidates. From what I've learned about him, I do not believe he has deep guiding principles and certainly no specific political philosophy or forward-thinking vision for how to right our ship.
Even more disturbingly, having followed the primary campaign closely and having good friends in both his campaign and Hillary Clinton's, I can also say how shocked I became at the really dishonest tactics he used, from race-baiting to caucus fraud to paying cyber stalkers to terrorize pro-Clinton writers and website owners. But, given the stunts he pulled in IL in the early days of his career that I came to discover in doing due diligence before deciding on my own vote, this really probably shouldn't have shocked me as much as they did.
Let us repeat those words: paying cyber stalkers to terrorize pro-Clinton writers and website owners.

Oh yeah. Hell yeah.

Recently, a DU participant chastised me for not getting over the primaries. You bet your ass I won't get over those outrages. I will never forgive or forget the death threats I received or the daily barrage of cyber-hate I endured simply because I dared to defend Evil Hillary from the smear campaigns directed against her.

And I know damn well just who bought and paid for all of that "cyber stalking." As noted in an earlier post, much of it came from the same ISP in Chicago.

I'm still furious about what occurred then. Anyone who forgives a death threat is a masochist, and I sure as hell ain't that. There will be no reconciliation. Ever. Some actions create eternal enmity, and before committing such actions, people should think twice.

Back to Fred:
For goodness sake, the man broke virtually every important promise he made during the primary campaign as soon as it was over, and he's busy continuing this trend now that he's president. Call me crazy, but that doesn't strike me as someone who is "basically honest."
Here's Ed, the Obi supporter, in response...
Anyone in the public arena ends up speaking in tropes, because one is bombarded with the same questions incessantly. By necessity you develop a refined rhetoric.

Maybe his "glazed look" was simple fatigue. I know how I get on the road (and I'm not in politics, where you really have to be nice to people).
Pretty pathetic rationalization, if ya asks me. Ed then hits Fred with what he no doubt considers a crippling blow:
Somehow i suspect you are a disappointed Hillary Clinton booster.
For people like Ed, calling someone a "disappointed Hillary Clinton booster" is the ultimate insult. A simplistic characterization of that sort offers the Eds of this world a way to ignore unnerving facts. Back in the 1980s, Reagan supporters acted the same way when they accused all opponents of being "socialists."

Obots love to believe that anyone not in the Cult of Obi must belong to the competing Cult of Hill. I piss them off when I tell them that I wish Hillary had never run, because they want to pigeonhole me and they can't. The fact is that I am not a cultist of any sort. I never worshiped or even much liked the woman, although she did start to grow on me at the very end. I supported her (grudgingly) for but one reason: She was the only thing standing between a corrupt Chicago pol and the Democratic nomination.

And that's a perfect lead-in to Fred's rejoinder...
I did donate to her primary campaign, although not at the maximum limit, even though I could. I did not stalk pro-Obama blogs to send out wild accusations about the man or insult him and/or berate his supporters. I did not cover myself, house or car with pro-Hillary paraphenalia as did so many Obama supporters in XX and elsewhere.

I did not ignore Hillary's faults or completely dismiss where I disagreed with her or sing praises of her that boarded on worship. Where she said she would pursue a certain policy or program, I took at her word and didn't try to twist it to mean something that I would like and evaluated how that would change or not change my support. And, where she said something that was gobbledygook (which did happen, although not often), I didn't excuse her; I said so and added that to my evaluation
I have numerous current and former friends and colleagues who worked with Obama in IL who refused to support his candidacy either, but would only say that in private given that so many were in the throes of Obama worship last year.

See also Alice Palmer whose neck Obama stepped on to gain his IL senate seat. She supported Hillary too because between Hillary and Obama, Palmer could trust Hillary. Frankly, to really know Barack is not to love him.
Ed's reply is classic:
You even managed to deflect the question: were you or were you not an active Hillary supporter??
Oh, those Obots! They have a script in their heads, and they will stick to it unto the end of days: All liberal opponents of the great O must be Hillary cultists. Or they must be racists. Antipathy toward O cannot possibly have anything to do with anything that Dear Leader has said or done.

Fred:
I'm sorry, but those who aspire to the Presidency do not get to be given "a chance." They don't get 3 strikes or a couple of screw-ups before we really give them the business. This is not an Outward Bound course for wayward youth...

It would be amusing to me if not so tragic, that during his campaign we were regaled with laudatory tales about Obama's sterling judgment which was supposed to make him "ready on day one." Now, what we hear is yelling from the left that we need to "give him a chance" and we're harshing his mellow as well as that of his followers by pointing out that he's clearly far from ready and frankly seems to be already not up to the task.
And, no - not everyone in the public arena "ends up speaking in tropes." I know quite a few very talented individuals who can carry on intelligent, nuanced conversations with a keen grasp and intellectual curiosity about a broad range of subjects in very different venues with very different audiences. They also happen to be great managers too. That's another canard that lets Obama off the hook for being much less than his hype.

Plus, as I tried to point out, a number of the venues I was in with him - 10 to 15 people at a meeting or a dinner - were not ones where you would expect someone to give you not much more than a stump speech in response to hard, policy questions. Not people who were aiming for the Presidency, at least.

And, he was certainly fairly animated when talking about his "life" and "his story which could only have happened in the U.S." (tell that to all my relatives and friends in the UK and Germany who are biracial with one African parent) and how he went into politics "for his girls future" and when asking us to reach deep in our pockets to help him succeed. It was only when he was pressed to delve deeply into significant policy issues that he became uninterested, bored and fidgety.
These words buttress the point I made earlier: Obama pursued the presidency for personal reasons, not to accomplish any political goals.

The exchange goes on from there, but I've already quoted it rather too extensively. Please click on the link to read the original. (Ed says that Obi will "grow" into the office, as FDR did. But FDR had proven himself as Governor of New York, in which capacity he instituted many much-needed reforms. Obama did nothing in the Senate.)

To reiterate: Although Liberal Rapture blanks out the names, I think that this exchange is no hoax. (For one thing, Fred and Ed have very different writing styles.) If you disagree with that assessment, feel free to give your reasons, as long as you express yourself in civilized tones. Cyberstalkers will, as always, be deleted on sight.

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the post, as always Joe, and yes it is weird that the bots still toss back Hillary "boosting."

Only one thing I disagree with; Fred can be short for Fridrika (as in CNN's Whittfield). And Ed --as we all know from the Cohen brothers' best-film-ever Raising Arizona-- Ed is "short for Edwina"

Anonymous said...

Pushback is starting and this may be the emperor has no clothes moment that has been coming. The mantra that the president is an intellectual is starting to have a desperate quality to it because everything he does proves that he isn't. The comparisons to Lincoln, both Roosevelts, Washington, and Kennedy are becoming ludicrous. Comparing our new chief executive to Harding, Hoover and Buchanan may be more appropriate.

Anonymous said...

If it's fake then the auther deserves an award for nailing the Obot personality.

Contemptuous, dismissive and dogmatic, like any cult member arguing with someone who hasn't seen the light of truth that only they possess.

Anonymous said...

I have read the whole exchange and it appears to be a real. Ed does sound like Josh Marshall, a wildly over-rated blogger imo.

I have not forgotten sites that treated me like a troll when I mildly criticized then-candidate Obama. I can't imagine what it must have been like for you or other bloggers who got death threats. I would not forgive or forget them either, Joseph.

djmm

Anonymous said...

Hi Joseph,

Well, I couldn’t resist taking a look at this one.

I think it’s a hoax - though I can’t say that with certainty.

I ran a few simple authorship attribution analyses. I extracted a number of features – specifically words, characters, and character n-grams from the text of Ed, Fred, and a large set of random authors (I also included Josh Marshall). I then used various different methods (cross entropy, histogram distance, and KS distance) to look for authorship matching, based on the extracted features.

Every single method (and feature) I tried assigned Ed to Fred (and not to any of the other possible authors). I even tried a second set of random authors, but got the same result. That strongly suggests to me that Ed = Fred.

To be really sure, I’d need to do a bunch more (e.g. including syntax analysis). But I’m pretty busy with other stuff.

Something about the exact language of the e-mail also sets off my “the author is lying” radar – but I’d be hard pressed to explain why (just have to ascribe it to intuition).

By the way – I continue reading your blog pretty much every day. And I wanted to mention – regarding that illustration a while ago - You still have it! Nice work.

Anonymous said...

Political office is now a buyers' market and anyone who has no desire to be bought or sold finds him/herself facing very difficult odds. If a dedicated person runs for office and is seen as a threat to the established order, the DCCC or DSCC will dump a ton of money on a corporate-approved candidate to wrest the primary from him/her. This is not to say that politicians who do win are not "true believers", but that often what they chose to believe is determined by those doing the buying and by the chance to amass great wealth upon leaving office.

While trying to find a quote of Obama's that seems to have been disappeared, I came across this comment at The Swamp:

"In October 2004 while campaigning for US Senator, Obama and I met at a friends house in Naperville IL. We got into a lengthy and heated debate on outsourcing - offshoring - globalazation - shipping jobs out of the U.S. I am against outsourcing. Obama was for outsourcing in 90% of the examples he gave. Like, offshoring computer / IT jobs to India. He invoked the the theory of Comparative Advantage. This is an economic theory that postulates if a country has an advantage such as lower labor rates ... it has comparative advantage and the US should allow outsourcing to India. With Obama as President I predict there will be a 1,000,000 plus jobs lost in 4 years starting from 2009. Obama's Harvard educated 30,000 economic theories don't Play In Peoria."

http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/06/obamas_man_winning_back_bush_s.html

I don't blame you for not forgetting those death threats. I wouldn't either. Like you, I did not see Hillary as my ideal candidate. I did view her as someone who was incredibly intelligent and hard-working and not willing to distance herself from the label "Democrat". If Hillary had not been in the race, I still would not have supported Obama because I felt there was no there there.

old dem

Anonymous said...

So I added a bit of syntax analysis – specifically parts-of-speech tagging using the CLAWS tagger, followed by attribution (using cross entropy and distance measures) incorporating the parts-of-speech. Ed still comes out as matching Fred (and not other random authors).

Re-reading the e-mail, it seems an increasingly transparent hoax. For one thing, the writer is trying too hard.

“Just to let you know, not that you would question me, but every thing I've said about my interaction with Obama is completely true.”

“I apologize for the long email, and I realize you have no reason to believe that I had the opportunity to interact with Obama up close and personal (although I swear that it is true ...”

In my own experience, when someone insists in this way – there’s a good chance they’re lying.

Moreover, Fred claims to have been a high level political appointee in the Clinton administration (and he’s supposedly corresponding with Ed, a political writer, under his real name). Given these circumstances, Fred having to insist that he's actually had opportunity to interact with Obama makes little sense.

In addition, writing this correspondence and allowing circulation of the e-mail (with all the internal identifying info – sufficient to unambiguously identify a real individual if they existed) would be a really stupid career move. A well-connected sharp pol (i.e. Fred) is not going potentially expose themselves and burn bridges in this fashion.

In addition, Fred claims to have gone to an Ivy League law school: “having attended an Ivy League law school myself”.

But the letter is, in many ways, amateurish, and not “sharp”.

e.g.
“No - any support I might or might not have had for any other democratic primary candidate (being very close to senior Hillary advisors when she was in the Senate, I said often that I didn't think she should run at all because she would be eviscerated by the press and I thought there was a good chance she wouldn't win the primary) has 1000% nothing to do with my alarm about how unprepared for the monumental task before him is Obama.”

“I'm actually bemused as I'm not even sure what the logic chain is in your accusation about Hillary since of course if one had supported Hillary and thought Obama was supremely unqualified for the role he now holds, of course, you would be disappointed.”

“They don't get 3 strikes or a couple of screw-ups before we really give them the business. This is not an Outward Bound course for wayward youth.”

An ivy-educated lawyer (and well connected political appointee) just doesn’t write this way. Whether or not they’ve learned anything else, they’ve learned the style of expression of the elite (and how to play status games).

Joseph Cannon said...

G, I"m not sure I can agree. Ed may not sound like the Josh Marshall you see on TPM, but that really is the way he answers email.

It's true that Fred makes quite a few errors of grammar and usage -- rather more than you would expect to find in the work of someone who has received an ivy education. But his mistakes (e.g., "boarded on worship" instead of "bordered on worship") are not the sort of errors I've seen Liberal Rapture commit.

Although I did not go to an ivy school, I strike most folks as erudite. Even so, I tend to make horrifying errors when writing private emails, especially when I write rapidly. I once corresponded with someone who received a PhD from Stanford, and she sounded much worse than Fred does.

All in all, I think that there are more reasons to accept the exchange as genuine than to suspect fraud.

Anonymous said...

I think hoax. Mostly because I haven't heard any anti-Obama vs. Obama-worshipper conversations go down involving these tensions in months. Nowadays, the anti-Obama vs. lukewarm-on-Obama exchanges I'm privy to go more like this:

Anti-O: lips pursed, eyebrow raised a little "So, haven't seen you in a while. How's it going?"

Lukewarm-on-O: "What? He's been in office a month! What do you want, miracles?"

Anti-O: "No, I meant, how are things with you? Do anything special for Valentine's?"

Lukewarm-on-O: "Uh, no. We're...economizing this year. She says she understands."

Anti-O: "Heard his speech earlier. I wish he'd gone into specifics."

Lukewarm-on-O: "Yeah, I know. But I'm sure he'll get to them later. What I'm still pissed about is the Daschle thing. I mean, how hard would it have been to actually vet the guy? Coulda saved us some embarrassment."

Anti-O: restrains self from whipping out about a million 'I told you so' jokes "Well...any plan's for St. Patrick's?"

glennmcgahee said...

I'd like to also add my grudge to what went on through the primary season. Remember alot of us were actually banned from commenting on several well known blogs that we had been participating on throughout the Bush years. But if we dared to question Obama or express support for Hillary, all of a sudden we got censored. The revisionism of the Clinton Administration and the demonizing of them as somehow racist for daring to campaign against a brown skinned person is still too much for me to forgive.

Bob Harrison said...

Hoax or not, the letters remind us of what was. In this past campaign, I started as an Edwards supporter and ended up firmly supporting Sen.Clinton. Along the way, I received death threats and an Oborg spam attack. I received many more death threats from Obama supporters than I did from the GOPers and Freepers. No. I will not forget either.

Anonymous said...

I'm Obama neutral, he lies too much, but my intuition screams hoax. Nothing to do with Ivy league grammar errors, more the phrasing and argument modelling. Reminds me of competent third-world propaganda.

Anonymous said...

Joseph:“But his mistakes … are not the sort of errors I've seen Liberal Rapture commit.”

Agreed. Added Liberal Rapture blogger (John) to the set of authors I was comparing Ed and Fred to – no match (he’s not the author).

When I’ve experimented with authorship attribution for known authors, I’ve gotten extremely good results using words + parts-of-speech as the features, with cross entropy as the method of attribution. It has essentially always given me the correct (known) result, provided I use a substantial sample of text. The Ed text in the post is relatively short – so there’s less information than I’d like, and I can’t be completely certain. But the complete consistency of the match, when run against panels of alternative authors, leads me to strongly lean toward believing that Fred and Ed flow from the same pen.

I also looked a bit more at additional syntactic features this morning (though in a somewhat superficial way), and those results continue to support Ed = Fred. If I had the time, I’d run the Stanford Natural Language Parser next… then go from there.

It’s not the existence of grammatical errors per se that seems inconsistent with Ivy. I know a lot of people that came out of these institutions, and it’s not the case that their grammar is invariably impeccable. It’s the style of expression.

Anonymous said...

So I applied the Stanford Natural Language Parser to the text of Ed and Fred, to extract the syntactic features of the writing. Then I compared Ed and Fred and a set of other authors for a bunch of these features (focusing particularly on those features that I had previously found most informative for authorship attribution). Ed and Fred match almost perfectly. There’s only a few types of features where they differ much in frequency – and those few cases were rare features, where the relatively short Ed text sample would be expected to create sampling effects (i.e. for an element of language that’s rare, the number of instances in a short sample will be quite stochastic). Even for most of the rare features, the frequencies for Ed and Fred matched really well. Meanwhile, both Ed and Fred differed (a lot) from all the other authors I examined – none were at all close.

So, purely lexical features (i.e. words, text characters) say that Ed = Fred, and purely syntactic features (completely stripped of lexical information) also say that Ed = Fred. I’ll hazard a guess that Ed = Fred.

Anonymous said...

Hoax or not, it's the best reflection on what we've all seen and what really happened. The cyber terrorism was felt everywhere. Obot lunacy was rampant. Calling someone a Hillary supporter was supposed to be an insult.

As to Obama's character, he nails it. Only interested in his own aspirations and completely unhinged when not scripted.

I still remember the first time I knew for certain that he wasn't the real deal. At the debate when John Edwards was still there. Obama said something like "We have a woman, a black man, and then there's John". He used sexism, racism and a little white hatred on top. I wasn't that statement alone though. It was many things, but that statement showed that he had no absolutely no problems using race and gender to his advantage. Everything after that just confirmed it more.

Anonymous said...

There’s a chance we should be using Frederica and Edwina (rather than Fred and Ed). It’s possible that the author is female. I ran the text through Gender Genie, a method that tries to infer the gender of an author based on word usage, and it came up with ‘female’. But a major caveat here – this approach gives the correct answer only about 70% of the time. So, it’s right more often than not, but I don’t have a ton of faith in it (e.g. one noticeable bias is that it tends to erroneously label many assertive, sharp female bloggers, such as Anglachel, as males).

Joseph Cannon said...

G: I've corresponded a bit with John of Liberal Rapture, and if he gives permission for me to summarize or to quote his letter, I should soon have more to say about this.

Anonymous said...

If you search for the quote "basically honest and intelligent" and Obama, one of the results points to Jim Kunstler's President Day post http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2009/02/presidents-day.html This contains the statement, "As I've said more than once, I believe this basically honest and intelligent president will have to take on the role of the nation's hand-holding camp counselor or school teacher." Possibly he is one of the parties to the exchange.