Let us attempt to apply a Holmesian methodology to the case to the mysterious video. This is just a beginning.

A big IF colors everything that follows. We have, as yet, no hard proof that such a video exists. Here is what we do have:

1. Rather detailed second-hand reports come to us from Larry Johnson, who claims to have spoken to five sources. These sources are either Republicans or CIA acquaintances -- a fact which must give us some pause. Johnson has put his reputation on the line. He has much to lose if no video shows up, and -- as far as I can see -- nothing to gain from lying. (Well, I suppose temporarily increased traffic to his site could bring in added revenue -- but the amount of money involved is much less than many seem to think.)

2. Roger Stone, a shark-like GOP operative who apparently has his own sources, also says that such a video exists and that a television network possesses a copy, although he says that he has not seen it. I don't trust him.

3. We have a transcript derived from emails of an unknown provenance. The transcript is somewhat compelling, because it is so disjointed. People speaking "off the cuff" usually use sentence fragments instead of full sentences.

4. Other reporters have developed sources similar to or identical with Johnson's. From National Review:

I'm hearing from other reporters that their (secondhand, of course) sources are calling back and adding that they saw Louis Farrakhan on the tape, a detail that they didn't mention before Johnson's update of 9 this morning. Does the presence of Farrakhan seem like a detail that's easy to forget?

5. We have no response as yet from Michelle Obama.

Remember the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth? Remember how all Democratic strategists agreed that the lesson to be learned from that debacle was "We must respond quickly when false stories circulate"?

This odd silence compels me to consider the possibility that such a video exists.

Johnson has said that Rove has displayed the video to various rich GOP donors, as a way of opening the wallets of fat cats who might otherwise consider McCain's cause hopeless. If this is true, copies of the video are not circulating, and would remain under tight control, to be released only at the most auspicious time. (That is, auspicious from the Republican point of view -- i.e., the proverbial October Surprise.)

Unfortunately, many dolts simply do not read, and thus have come under the impression that Johnson has said that copies are in circulation.

In his latest, Johnson gives a visual description:

It features Michelle Obama and Louis Farrakhan. They are sitting on a panel at Jeremiah Wright’s Church when Michelle makes her intemperate remarks.

The rumored transcript, which Johnson has not endorsed, makes reference to Katrina. So this gives us a time frame.

When did Farrakhan appear on a panel at Trinity? I am trying to find out how many times he has shown up there since the Katrina disaster. We do know that in December of 2007, Trinity United gave Farrakhan what the church calls the "Rev. Dr. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. Lifetime Achievement Trumpeteer award." (I'm just puckish enough to point out that Farrakhan is a violinist.)

This video was shown on that occasion. I presume that the woman narrating the piece is not Michelle.

What was the exact date of the award? I don't know. Virtually all easily-available news accounts place it "one month" after a Farrakhan speech on November 11, 2007. On that occasion, he said that "Satanic Jews" had taken over Black Entertainment Television.

Our course of action thus seems clear:

-- Discover the exact date of the "Trumpeteer" award ceremony.

-- Determine the Obamas' whereabouts on that date.

-- Find out any other post-Katrina occasions on which Louis Farrakhan may have appeared at Trinity United.

One other possibility occurs to me. If a video exists -- and I suspect that one does -- can we be certain that Michelle is in it? Amateur videos are often unclear, and may be taken at a distance from the subject. Perhaps another woman at the event resembled her.

And before you leap atop your high horse, try to understand that "I suspect" does not mean "I am definitively assuring you." I remain quite open to various possibilities -- including the notion that the Republicans have engineered a fraud in order to keep Democratic infighting going until the convention.

Note that the previous sentence targets "the Republicans," not "Larry Johnson." Re-read point 4 above. The sources may or may not be reliable, but they must exist if they are talking to others as well.

At any rate, I have outlined three things you can do, if you feel eager to do something. Better to pursue a practical course of investigation than to scream "Show us the video, Larry!" mindlessly and repeatedly. He doesn't have it and never claimed to have it.

Update: The award was given in Chicago on November 2, 2007 -- before the "satanic Jews" bit. Barack Obama was in South Carolina on that date. I have no evidence of Michelle's whereabouts, but I will presume that she was with her husband.

It seems highly unlikely that she would be at any function involving Farrakhan after Barack Obama began seriously to consider the presidency.

If the "Katrina" chronological pointer has any validity, then we should look for an occasion after August 2005. At that time, the Combine still hoped to put Blagojevich, not Obama, in the White House -- thus, Michelle would have a little more freedom of association. That plan changed at some point after Blagojevich's legal troubles began in December of 2005. So we should inquire as to whether Farrakhan made an appearance at a Trinity function in the year-or-so following Katrina.

Of course, it is always possible that the email is false. In which case, Michelle may have appeared with Farrakhan much earlier. A State Senator's wife is more likely to speak foolishly than is a U.S. Senator's wife. Then again, that "proud of my country" remark was pretty damned foolish.

And of course, it is always possible that the whole business is false.